With only a handful of games to go in the 2013-14 season, it’s probably well past time we take a look at who’s most likely to make it through to the post-season, who isn’t, and who’s still sitting on the cusp of a playoff berth. First, though, a quick review of how the seeding works this year with the new wild card format and conference setup.
The top three teams from each division are automatically placed in as the top six teams in each conference. That leaves two wildcard spots in each conference. Those are filled by the next two highest placed teams in each conference, based only on regular season points – divisions don’t matter. The top-placed division leader then plays the wild card team with the fewest points, and the second best division leader plays the second-worst wild card team. Then, the second- and third-placed teams in each division square off.
Who’s In
Boston Bruins
Going into Monday’s game against Montreal, the Bruins were on a 12-game winning streak, and in their last 24 games had gone 18-2-2. In that time, Jarome Iginla managed 15 goals and 14 assists. But have the B’s peaked too early? We’ll find out in the post-season.
Pittsburgh Penguins
With the majority of its remaining games at home, the Penguins sit with 97 points and in an all-but-guaranteed playoff spot. Perhaps a sign of warning, however: they lost to the St. Louis Blues on Sunday – that’s a matchup that might be one we’re watching in a couple months for the Stanley Cup.
St. Louis Blues
Speaking of which, the Blues are rocking with over 100 points, putting them in top spot in the league. They, too, have most of their remaining games at home, but some will be tough – namely the Dallas Stars, the Chicago Blackhawks and, because they’re still in the fight for a wild card spot in the East and might be desperate by then, the Washington Capitals. But they’ll be fine.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks have been inconsistent lately, only winning five of their last 10 as of Monday night. The road ahead doesn’t get a lot better. Before the end of the year they’ll face the Stars, the Bruins, the Penguins, the Blues, the Canadiens and the Capitals. Still, they should make it through.
San Jose Sharks
As we all know, the Sharks are perfectly capable of making the post-season – that’s not really ever the question Sharks fans have these days. It’s what they do once they get there that matters.
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim went through a slump to start March, losing six of their last 10, including four straight (one of those was a 7-2 hammering by the Flames, no less). So, we’ll see how the rest of the year plays out, but the Ducks ought to pick up a few more wins on the way to the playoffs. They’ll play Calgary again, the Oilers three times, and the Canucks twice before the year’s through.
L.A. Kings
The Kings have won three straight, and seven of their last 10. The road to the playoffs is a mixed bag. They’ll have a short road trip to the Metro division, and will play the Flyers, Caps and Pens all in four days. Notably, one of their most recent losses (on March 15) was against the Ducks (2-1), and will face them again in their final game of the regular season. At writing, the Ducks and Kings would meet in the first round.
Colorado Avalanche
They’ve been on a skid of late, dropping their last three, including one to the Jets, and will have a rough finish with visits from Boston, San Jose, and Pittsburgh along with a stop in St. Louis, but if they can find their feet again, they should make it. After that? Who knows. As of right now, they’d face Chicago, which would be amazing – for us to watch, that is.
Who’s probably in
Philadelphia Flyers
A very good March has put the Flyers in a good spot to make the cut this year. The Flyers have posted six wins in their last 10 games, but that’s not what’s really important. What’s really important is who they beat: Pittsburgh (back-to-back), Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis. All in a row. Then they dropped one to the Kings on Monday. The next 11 matchups are slightly better, though they’ll see the Bruins twice and the Penguins again once. Still, if they keep it up, they’re all but assured a place.
Montreal Canadiens
Barring a complete and utterly spectacular collapse, the Canadiens will probably make the first round. They’ve got a tough schedule but of late have proved capable of hanging on to a lead (Toronto), and coming back from a big deficit (Ottawa). The real tests will come against Tampa Bay (currently one spot above the Habs in the Atlantic), the Blackhawks and, depending on how the rest of the season goes, the Rangers.
Tampa Bay Lightning
This team doesn’t mess around, and now that Steve Stamkos is back on the ice, there’s little doubt the Lightning will make the post-season. They had a small slump (three games) at the beginning of the month, but have since improved, five of their last six. Keep an eye on the game against the Habs on April 1, as it could foreshadow the first round.
New York Rangers
Bit of a bubble team, but with the rest of the year looking like it does and with four straight wins behind them now, the Rangers look like a good bet to be in the playoffs. They go for a road trip through the west to finish the month which could help their chances. Most likely they’ll get there.
Who’s on the bubble?
Minnesota Wild
The Wild should be a safe bet, but I don’t know. Their schedule to end the season is a complete nightmare. It includes a four-game road trip through the west against – in order – St. Louis, Phoenix, L.A., and Chicago. Then they come home and immediately play the Penguins. Then, before it’s over, they’ll host Boston and St. Louis once more. They should be in the category above, but if anyone else gets a streak going and the Wild drop all of those contests, they might not be quite so safe anymore.
Detroit Red Wings
A tough one. Right now they’re tied with the Leafs, and have gone 50% in the last 10 games. What they need now as much as a few wins, is for Toronto to have a few more losses. Their schedule isn’t overly difficult, but they’ve struggled this year, so it’s anyone’s guess. Still, the Red Wings weren’t expected to do much last year in the playoffs (they entered as the 7th seed), and ended up pushing the Blackhawks to a Game Seven in the Western semifinal.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Oh boy, I don’t know you guys. Before the Olympics, the parade route had not only already been mapped, but the floats were built, the city had painted the skyscrapers white and blue, Rob Ford had painted himself white and blue.... And now? Another loss this past weekend to the Habs, and James Reimer looks like a shadow of the man he was last season. It’s not going to get any easier, either. The Leafs host St. Louis on Tuesday night, are in Philly Friday, and before the year is through have to face the Red Wings, the Bruins and the Lightning. It’s not looking good.
Phoenix Coyotes
At writing, the Coyotes sit in the second wild card spot in the West, two points up on Dallas, but one game ahead. Which means it’s tight. They’ve been inconsistent of late, dropping their last two against the Bruins and Rangers after winning three straight against the Flames, Kings and Panthers. A key game will come on March 29 when they face the Wild, and they’ll really need to win all those games that look easier on paper – Edmonton, Columbus, Winnipeg, for example.
Dallas Stars
The Stars are close, but aren’t doing themselves any favours this month. They lost four straight through the middle of the month, including a 7-2 loss to the Jets. Maybe they were all slightly rattled after Rich Peverly collapsed on the bench during their game against the Blue Jackets on March 10 – and fair enough. Still, the road ahead isn’t a smooth one. They go up against the Blackhawks and the Blues before the month is out. They’ll have to count on the Coyotes losing a few. They’re a solid maybe.
Washington Capitals
It sort of goes without saying the Capitals haven’t been winning enough – if they had been, they wouldn’t be in this spot. They’ve only won five of their last 10, but are currently on a short road trip through California that’s already seen two wins (against Anaheim and San Jose). If they keep that up – through another game against the Kings, then one at home against the Bruins – they’ll help their chances. Right now, the Caps are only one point out of the second wild card spot in the East, and are gaining on Toronto. They, like the Red Wings, will also be hoping for a Leaf collapse.
Outside chances
A few teams are probably technically still on the bubble, but look just a little more off it than on:
New Jersey Devils
An easy finish to the year means they’ve still got a small chance of making it. Currently five points out of a wild card spot in the East, however, means they’ll need to really step it up. Unlikely.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Better positioning on paper than the Devils, but likely too tough a schedule to finish the year for any serious hope.
Vancouver Canucks
Uh, no.
Of course, most of this is still open to speculation (and criticism), so speculate away in the comments. And, as an extra caveat to all of the above, I should note my record of predicting things around here: it’s not terrific.
