UK housing market is on fire, warns Bank of England chief economist

Continued rise stoked by tax breaks and demand from well-off households likely to deepen inequality, says Andy Haldane

Britain’s housing market is “on fire” thanks to the extension of government tax breaks for homebuyers and increased demand from richer households with more savings following coronavirus lockdowns, the Bank of England’s chief economist said on Tuesday.

Andy Haldane warned that the property market was likely to continue running hot while all these factors, in combination with the central bank’s ultra-low interest rates, remained in place. He said the recent rise in house prices – which topped 10% over the 12 months to March 2021, according to official data – was very likely to worsen inequality.

“As things stand, the housing market in the UK is on fire,” Haldane said at a virtual conference on inequality organised by the University of Glasgow. “There’s a significant imbalance between incipient demand and available supply of houses, and because the laws of economic gravity have not been suspended, the result is pretty punchy rises in house prices.”

Haldane said the dramatic increase in prices was very likely to worsen the gap in wealth between the better off and younger generations.

Unless policymakers tackle the supply of homes, Haldane said, “inevitably we’ll see the sort of relentless rise in house prices relative to incomes that we’ve seen over the past 30 to 40 years”.

“For most people the global financial crisis came like an earthquake exposing those structural fault lines in our societies, of which inequality is among the largest.”

The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has come under fire for pushing the cost of homes out of reach for middle-income groups after he cut the stamp duty tax on property purchases last year. The move reversed a slump in property sales at the start of the pandemic. He extended the temporary tax cut in March’s budget to the end of June 2021.

Households, many of them with people working from home, have built up around £160bn in savings since the start of the pandemic. Sunak’s tax incentive came as many of them sought bigger properties to include gardens and home offices.

Halifax said this week that house prices are likely to continue rising for some time despite hitting a new record high in May.

The mortgage lender, part of Lloyds bank, said house prices jumped 1.3% in May, and by 9.5% over the last year, taking the average selling price to a record £261,743.

Haldane, who is leaving the bank to head the Royal Society of Encouragement of Arts and Manufactures and Commerce, said there was little the central bank could do about the surge in house prices because the main influences on the housing market – tax rates, planning rules and measures to promote housebuilding – were set by government.

His comments contrast with deputy governor Sir John Cunliffe who said last month that the bank’s role as watchdog for the banking industry meant it was making sure lenders were conservative in their policies.

Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk

In a separate speech, deputy governor Dave Ramsden said the central bank was carefully monitoring the housing market as it weighed up the risk of a jump in consumer price inflation.

Haldane told the workshop that uncertainty about the prospects for Britain’s labour market remained high even though employment and vacancies had bounced back quickly from the Covid crisis.

“We’ve still got more than 3 million workers on furlough across the UK, and that means that uncertainties about the future jobs market remain pretty acute,” he said.

While government figures last week showed 3.4m jobs were on furlough at the end of April, more timely survey data from the Office for National Statistics suggested the number had dropped to 2.1 million by mid-May.

Contributor

Phillip Inman

The GuardianTramp

Related Content

Article image
UK Covid-19 cases fall but fears grow over jobs, spending and debt
Analysis of pandemic’s effects on businesses examines work, growth and stock markets

Richard Partington Economics correspondent

30, Jul, 2020 @11:00 AM

Article image
Bank of England interest rate rise – what it means for borrowers and savers
Rate rise to 3.5% affects everything from mortgages to credit cards, loans and savings. Here is all you need to know

Rupert Jones

15, Dec, 2022 @1:27 PM

Article image
How to turn the UK's 'generation rent' into 'generation buy' | Larry Elliott
A new paper says a ‘blended mortgage’ can work for first-time buyers unable to access help to buy or the bank of mum and dad

Larry Elliott

07, Feb, 2021 @12:21 PM

Article image
Bank of England warns housing market boom may turn to crash

Toughest warning yet from Bank about rising property prices, as one in 15 London homes now sell for £1m or more

Larry Elliott, Hilary Osborne and Rupert Jones

01, May, 2014 @8:45 PM

Article image
Sunak’s stamp duty holiday extension has merely inflamed the housing market
Throwing money at an already heated housing market looks nonsensical and could lose the Treasury £2bn

Nils Pratley

04, May, 2021 @6:52 PM

Article image
OBR forecasts likely to show £60bn-£70bn hole after Kwarteng’s mini-budget
Predictions handed to chancellor expected to paint gloomy picture for UK economy amid sweeping tax cuts

Richard Partington Economics correspondent

07, Oct, 2022 @5:20 PM

Article image
UK mortgage lending hits record amid stamp duty rush
Consumers repaying credit card debts and manufacturing booms as Covid restrictions ease, new figures show

Larry Elliott

04, May, 2021 @10:13 AM

Article image
UK wealth gap widens in pandemic as richest get £50,000 windfall
Resolution Foundation finds rising house and asset prices have ‘turbo-charged’ gap between richest and poorest

Larry Elliott

12, Jul, 2021 @5:01 AM

Article image
Are soaring markets and house prices an 'epic bubble' about to pop? | Larry Elliott
QE is fuelling huge speculation with investors trusting central banks will step in if markets dive

Larry Elliott

10, Jan, 2021 @12:12 PM

Article image
Six factors influencing the UK property market in 2018
It could be a better year in Britain’s dysfunctional housing market for first-time buyers and tenants

Patrick Collinson

26, Dec, 2017 @1:34 PM