On Monday afternoon in the Commons, Theresa May will update MPs about any progress she may have made on Brexit options following her conclusive parliamentary defeat last week. It is expected to be a holding statement, to enable her to carry on consulting as she hunts for the elusive formula that can win a Commons majority, retain EU agreement and keep her government alive.
Given Mrs May’s approach and personality, this could be a long search. Don’t hold your breath for the outcome. One of Mrs May’s most disabling qualities in this situation is her political rigidity. In spite of last week’s defeat, she struggles to see that everything about her premiership has changed. She remains formally in charge of the government. But, on the issue that defines British politics, she is no longer in charge at all. She merely leads one of the many groups with no majority that make up the patchwork of Commons Brexit opinion. Mrs May will both fail and fall if she does not change her approach. She needs either to find Brexit allies, in which case she must compromise on policy, or to reset the Brexit process in some way, which will require an even bolder form of leadership. Over the weekend, as it happens, two former prime ministers came to her aid in different ways with practical suggestions – though she is unlikely to thank either of them for doing so.
Nevertheless, she should listen. In the first, John Major told the BBC that Mrs May needs to become a mediator between parliament’s many Brexit groups. If neither the hardline remainers nor the hardline leavers can have their way without mayhem, only compromise offers a way forward, he believes. This is essentially the lesson of the Northern Ireland peace process. If Sir John is right, and he may be, then Mrs May needs to test MPs’ mood on a series of Brexit-related issues, see where there is potential for a deal and put herself at the head of the effort to agree it.
A second approach comes in our pages from Gordon Brown. He argues that Britain faces a triple problem: a government at odds with parliament; a country divided by Brexit; and a disconnect between the public and politics. Mrs May, he says, must stop the Brexit clock and embrace new ways that could assist the building of a consensus. Like the Guardian, he advocates deliberative assemblies to help parliament achieve that end. But he also grasps that this requires a debate about Britain itself, not just Britain in Europe.
The two former prime ministers have much in common. Both of them recognise the seriousness of the situation. Both propose new approaches in place of the strategy that collapsed last week. And both seek compromise between the warring sides. Their solutions differ – Sir John would rely on patient leadership to broker a Brexit deal while Mr Brown puts his trust in new forms of process to produce a wider transformative outcome. But, in their different ways, they are voices of sanity, fresh ideas, cooperation and practicality. Mrs May has the chance to show, starting from Monday, that she can learn from the wisdom of her prime ministerial predecessors.
