In an ostentatious show of unity designed to ease the tensions between France and Germany over the threat posed by a resurgent Russia, leaders of Europe’s three leading military powers agreed to step up the worldwide purchase of ammunition for Ukraine and improve their offer of long-range artillery.
The hastily arranged meeting in Berlin between France, Germany and Poland did little to disguise the fact that Paris and Berlin now hold different perspectives on the twin spectres of Russian military advances in Ukraine and the US Congress’s refusal to approve substantial further military aid for Kyiv.
The clash in approach – predominantly between the newly hawkish French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the perennially cautious German chancellor, Olaf Scholz – was laid bare in a dramatic French TV interview on Thursday night in which Macron said Europe’s security, even Europe’s existence, was at risk.
The recently elected Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, was not quite cast in the role of mediator, as Poland has always regarded Russia as an imperialist power, but his attendance underlined the need for a soothing third party.
Tusk, just back from meetings with Joe Biden in Washington, urged all sides to talk less and focus on providing more weapons. He said: “The meeting shows that the malicious rumours about the disagreements between the capitals are not correct.”
Offering an olive branch to Scholz’s fear of escalation, Macron said: “We will continue as we have done since the first day, never to take the initiative in any escalation.”
Scholz said: “We will procure even more weapons – on the entire world market.” This was a reference to a now widely endorsed Czech plan to buy ammunition outside the EU, something the French once opposed on grounds of European sovereignty.
In addition, the production of military equipment should be expanded, including in Ukraine, Scholz said. He promised to pursue a “coalition of capabilities” to purchase long-range rocket artillery, an idea first set out at a meeting in Paris last month.
Tusk said: “We want to spend our money, we want to help in every possible way … here and now, so that the situation of Ukraine in the coming weeks and months gets better, not worse.”
They also affirmed support for the windfall profits from frozen Russian central bank assets to be transferred to Ukraine. The UK and the US favour seizing the assets themselves, and worry that the €3bn profits will do next to nothing to fill the $60bn funding gap if the US Republicans block the US aid package.
With no questions taken at the press conference, the three men, locking hands together, wanted a show of unity to be the prevailing message to Moscow.
Macron added: “This is a serious moment. A new era is dawning, and we’ll be there. And the fact that the three of us are united on this day, determined with the same lucidity about the situation in Ukraine and determined never to let Russia win and to support the Ukrainian people to the end, is a strength for us, our peoples, our security and our Europe.”
Macron had caused consternation last month when he refused to rule out sending troops to Ukraine, which he later clarified to be as trainers. In Thursday’s interview he did not retreat, saying he would rule nothing out. It was an attempt to maintain strategic ambiguity and to convince Vladimir Putin that Russia is engaged in a war that Europe will not allow it to win.
Quoting Winston Churchill and Charles de Gaulle at various points, he said: “The security of Europe and the French is at stake in Ukraine. If Russia wins, the lives of the French change and Europe’s credibility is reduced to zero. Who can think that Vladimir Putin will stop there?”
Although he refused to describe Russia as an enemy, using the term “adversary” instead, he said Moscow was already engaged in a hybrid war in Europe. He rejected claims that his rhetoric risked escalating the situation, a key point of difference with Scholz, who fears Putin’s nuclear threats.
“We must not be weak,” Macron said. He again implicitly criticised Scholz for continuing to rule out the delivery of Germany’s powerful long-range Taurus cruise missiles, saying those that set limits on aid were backing defeat.
“We have set too many limits with words,” Macron said. “Two years ago we said we would never send tanks. Then we did. Two years ago we said we would never send medium-range missiles. Then we did.” He said this put into perspective the definitive statements “made by some in Europe”, without naming Germany.
Scholz, with the backing of the Bundestag, has said he was concerned the Taurus missiles would either need to be operated by the German military inside Ukraine, or would be used to stir a war waged inside Russia. Workarounds and missile swaps have been proposed privately, both by the British foreign secretary, David Cameron, and by the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock.
The tensions between the two men reflect differences of temperament and domestic political pressures. Macron has metamorphosed from a stubborn advocate of dialogue with Putin to a leading hawk over the last 12 months.
His critics, including in Berlin, say his transformation is not driven by a slow reappraisal of Russia but by French domestic politics, as he seeks to build a dividing line on French security with a surging populist right that either does not see Russia as a threat to France or admires Putin’s social conservatism.
Scholz, by contrast, looks at polls that show his Social Democrat base is opposed to escalatory steps such as handing the Taurus missile to Ukraine.
Despite Scholz saying he has a good relationship with Macron, a quiet anger exists at the French president’s rhetoric about troops on the ground in Ukraine, with one diplomat describing it as a self-serving distraction.
Data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy shows German aid to Ukraine is the largest in Europe, and substantially higher than that provided by France.
France, traditionally reluctant to spell out what arms it has provided, has challenged the Kiel calculations, pointing to the boost in French spending.
