Catalonia in north-east Spain will issue a challenge to Brussels when its voters are asked to declare whether they want an independent state within the EU.
Regional leader Artur Mas said on Monday he planned to ask the question, including the reference to the EU, during a four-year term that starts after regional elections on 25 November – even though Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has threatened to block a referendum.
A yes vote in the referendum would not just create a constitutional crisis for Spain, which has no mechanism for allowing the independence of one of its regions, but would also issue a clear challenge to the EU, which has no system for the breakup of a member state. A new entity could have future membership blocked by just one member country.
The Catalan referendum would take place around the time of a similar vote in Scotland in 2014 and could be followed by an independence vote in the Basque country, where nationalists and separatists are expected to win elections this weekend. Basque nationalists have long pursued the dream of joining the EU as a separate state on an equal footing with Spain.
"Do you want Catalonia to become a new state within the European Union?" is Mas's preferred wording for the referendum.
He told the newspaper La Vanguardia that a definitive question would be agreed by the Catalan parliament, where he can expect to renew his majority on 25 November. He said he would like to follow the Scottish example and negotiate a referendum with central government, but Rajoy's conservative People's party (PP) government has vowed to use Spain's constitutional court to declare any referendum illegal.
"There are legal instruments available to stop this and there is a government prepared to use them," the deputy prime minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, said recently.
The justice minister, Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, threatened action against Mas if he ignored the constitutional court. "If a person commits an illegal act … then that person will have take responsibility for their actions," he said on Monday.
But Mas appears determined to push ahead with a referendum question that could draw the EU into a confrontation between the Catalans and the governments of member states.
Mas threatened to "internationalise the conflict" if Rajoy blocked the referendum.
"In that case, we will have to go to Brussels to explain that they don't even let us consult with the people," he told the regional public TV channel TV3 on Monday.
Mas said David Cameron's decision to allow Scotland to hold a referendum – though the Scottish question will not mention the EU – should be an example to Rajoy. "While the British negotiate, the Spanish state simply threatens," he told La Vanguardia.
His Convergence and Union coalition is close to obtaining an absolute majority in the Catalan parliament, according to the latest polls. The separatist Catalan Republic Left party (ERC), which would be a natural ally in the push for independence, is also set to increase its vote.
Spain's two biggest parties – the PP and the PSOE socialists – are expected to lose seats in next month's election, reducing their representation in the Catalan parliament to less than 40%.
Polls show support for independence in Catalonia has climbed to more than 50%.
