Oscar's comeuppance?

Xan Brooks

Tuesday, 17 Jan 2006

# Oscars 2006

Billed as the ultimate Oscars form sheet, the Golden Globes isn't always an Academy Awards preview, writes Xan Brooks

The Golden Globes are like Oscar's smart younger sibling; less noisy, more studious and slightly quicker on the uptake. In lavishing the bulk of its honours on Brokeback Mountain, they also run the risk of conjuring the upcoming Academy Awards into a billion dollar repeat, a grand Hollywood remake of an edgy New York production.

Ang Lee's so-called "gay western" duly led the field last night, picking up Globes for best dramatic film and director, screenplay and original song. The chances are that it will now go on to become the big winner at the Oscars too.

But for all that it now looks a safe bet, I shall certainly not be betting my house on it. The relationship between the Globes and the Oscars is not quite as simple as it first appears. There is a friction between the two ceremonies that ensures they are rarely in complete agreement. Such was the case last year when the Globes anointed Martin Scorsese's The Aviator as the awards front-runner only for the Academy to dramatically switch to the Clint Eastwood camp in the dying minutes of Oscar 2005.

Expect a few similar jokers in the pack this time around. One might think that, following last night's triumphs, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Felicity Huffmann are now the odds-on favourites to win this year's best actor and actress awards. And yet history suggests that Academy voters traditionally (though not invariably) plump for bigger movies than the low-budget Capote and Transamerica. If so, the estimable Hoff and Huff seem destined to lose out on the night to the likes of Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain) or Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line), and Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line) or Charlize Theron (North Country).

All of which serves to spice the awards calendar with a sprinkle of welcome unpredictability. Following last night's Golden Globe awards we now think we know what and who is going to win this year's Oscars. But we can never be 100% sure. So we sit up for another night, camped in front of the red-eye broadcast from LA until the results are in and the boxes ticked. Only then will we know just how similar, and just how different, these not-quite-twin awards really are.

&#149 Xan Brooks will be covering the Oscars ceremony live on Guardian Unlimited

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Xan Brooks

Xan Brooks is a freelance writer and broadcaster specialising in cinema

Xan Brooks

Tuesday, 17 Jan 2006

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