When the nominations for the Oscars are announced on Tuesday, the most predictable race in the awards' recent history will enter its final stretch. Barring a miracle, Ang Lee's Brokeback Mountain will canter to the Best Picture and Best Director prizes at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday, 5 March. Predictable but not boring - Lee's elegiac love story, unhelpfully labelled 'the gay cowboy movie,' is bringing a frisson to this year's awards season.
Though it's a shoo-in for Best Picture, there's still a sense that it's a slap in the face for George Bush's America. The film's awards for Best Drama and Best Director at the Golden Globes two weeks ago completed its sweep of recent prizes. Then, last Sunday, it was voted Best Picture by the Producers Guild Awards; and it was favourite to win last night's Directors Guild Award. (It's been nominated for seven Baftas, too.) And yet, not all pundits are convinced Brokeback has a lock on the Oscar for Best Picture.
'Soon the Academy Awards race will be put on hold for a month while media attention turns to the Winter Olympics [in February],' says Oscar expert Tom O'Neil, columnist for the Los Angeles Times's awards site theenvelope.com. 'Will Oscar voters get bored with the early Best Picture champ and want to hail a new one? It's happened at past Oscar races.'
Joe Leydon, a film critic for trade paper Variety, agrees: 'Every year an early frontrunner appears and there's a lot of loose talk about a possibly "unexciting" Oscar race. But you know what? Somebody always manages to stir up a horse race, even if there isn't a horse race. Trust me, between now and Oscar night, we're going to be hearing critics and commentators say: "Oh, Brokeback Mountain may have peaked too early, Walk the Line is closing in as a dark horse, Munich could still score an upset, etc."'
That's if Steven Spielberg's political thriller gets on the Best Picture slate. Though it was an early favourite to do so - before it had even been released, such is Spielberg's reputation - it's now on wobbly ground, as is Rob Marshall's lavish Memoirs of a Geisha. Brokeback Mountain, the Johnny Cash biopic Walk the Line and Good Night, and Good Luck - George Clooney's drama about McCarthyism - may well be joined by Crash, Paul Haggis's drama about racism in Los Angeles and Bennett Miller's Truman Capote biopic Capote
'I definitely think Crash will be one of the five finalists,' Leydon says. 'The fact that people are still talking it up so many months after its [summer] release speaks well of its impact. Also - and this is a factor many people tend to overlook - Crash may speak very directly to LA residents, may affect them on a very personal level. And how many Oscar voters are LA residents? Most of them.'
Meanwhile, Reese Witherspoon's vibrant portrayal of June Carter in Walk the Line is highly likely to win Best Actress, while Philip Seymour Hoffman (as Truman Capote) is the Best Actor favourite over Heath Ledger (for Brokeback Mountain) and Joaquin Phoenix (as Johnny Cash). Still, says Leydon, 'I sense a groundswell of support for Walk the Line. Phoenix and Witherspoon make such a lovely couple. It would be nifty to see them photographed backstage, clutching his-and-hers Oscars.'
· Graham Fuller is the film columnist at Interview magazine
And here's what our panel of experts think ...
Barry Norman
Broadcaster
Film: Oscar doesn't always reward the best film, but it looks like the blockbusters are failing now and that younger Academy members are rewarding more intelligent films. Let's hope so, because Hollywood usually sees art as a bonus, but otherwise they're in the business of money and make no bones about it. Brokeback Mountain looks like winning, although I'd love to see Good Night, and Good Luck sneak it. I hope King Kong doesn't because it's all effects and overrated. If a blockbuster were nominated, I hope it would be Batman Begins, a damn fine film .
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman is terribly good as Capote, and the form books suggest he's the winner. Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line) will be nominated because Americans love Johnny Cash but I don't think he'll do a Jamie Foxx. Heath Ledger will be in there, and I hope David Strathairn (Good Night ...) gets due recognition because he's superb.
Actress: Charlize Theron is excellent in North Country, and Reese Witherspoon's June Carter was terrific, so it's between them. Judi Dench (Mrs Henderson Presents) might have a chance, as there are certain people Oscar loves, and Judi's one.
Director: Steven Spielberg has been overlooked so far, and Munich could earn him a nomination, but I think Ang Lee will take it. I'd like to see it go to George Clooney but it's probably too early. Fernando Mereilles did a magnificent job on The Constant Gardener, so it could be one of those rare years when they split best director and film. One film I'd love to see recognised is Michael Winterbottom's A Cock and Bull Story
Stephen Woolley
Producer of Oscar-nominated The Crying Game made directorial debut last year with Stoned
Film: Brokeback Mountain will win. The Academy has plenty of gay voters, and Hollywood likes to feel hip. Look at Midnight Cowboy, The Crying Game and Kiss of the Spiderwoman
Brokeback Mountain will win. The Academy has plenty of gay voters, and Hollywood likes to feel hip. Look at Midnight Cowboy, The Crying Game and Kiss of the Spiderwoman
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman - he is Capote and there isn't much there besides his performance, he's the heart and soul of it - I think he even put his own money in to get it finished.
Actress: Reese Witherspoon lights up Walk the Line, which is a fairly typical biopic until she comes along. She's made the difficult transition from comedy actress to being taken seriously.
Director: Ang Lee is certainly one of the finest filmmakers around, so he'll get it and it's deserved. They don't often split up film and director awards but I'm one who believes the best director doesn't necessarily make the best film. Fernando Mereilles did a great job on The Constant Gardener, full of colour and energy. It's a very distinctive, individual style. It wouldn't shock me if Steven Spielberg were rewarded for Munich, even if the Academy can't figure out their political feelings enough to give it best film.
Sandra Hebron
Artistic Director of the London Film Festival
Film: It's a very, very close year and a rare one because whatever wins will be a fine work and I'd not have any strong arguments against it. I'd be happy to see Munich in there, and The Constant Gardener, but it does look to be Brokeback Mountain's year.
Actor: I'd love to see David Strathairn win above anyone this year though I think Heath Ledger will win it, with Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman close behind.
Actress: Rachel Weisz is the best she's ever been in The Constant Gardener and her chances are high. I did love Reese Witherspoon, too, but it's like comparing apples and pears, and how do you even begin to weigh the two up against each other?
Director: The consensus here (I'm at Sundance) is that Ang Lee will win, but I really admired George Clooney's direction on Good Night, and Good Luck. His film was very nicely put together and it seemed very democratic, which was apt for the film, in that there was no grandstanding. The use of music held it all together and it was very classy on the whole. I chose it to close the LFF and I'm particularly fond of it. George came along and was wonderful.
Mark Kermode
Observer film writer and broadcaster
Film: The best film I saw last year was David Cronenberg's A History of Violence, with Wolf Creek and The Descent also on my favourites list. Sadly, these seem unlikely to show up on Oscar's radar. Of the serious contenders, Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line are both deserved nomination contenders, with Capote a worthy outsider. I also loved Crash, which fared well at the recent Bafta nominations after missing out at the Globes.
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman are both note-perfect as Cash and Capote respectively. Heath Ledger must be a favourite for Brokeback Mountain. Russell Crowe impressed me in the underrated Cinderella Man, and David Strathairn is terrific in Good Night, and Good Luck. I think that A History of Violence showed Viggo Mortensen to be the new De Niro, but I appear to be alone in this.
Actress: Rachel Weisz deserves a Best Actress nod, although she's being touted in the Supporting Actress category in the US, where she won a Golden Globe. Reese Witherspoon sings her heart out, and Felicity Huffman is impressively androgynous in the otherwise unremarkable Transamerica. It'd be nice to see Ziyi Zhang up for Memoirs of A Geisha, but my own vote would be for Maria Bello in A History of Violence.
Director: For me, Cronenberg - obviously. George Clooney continues to impress behind the camera with Good Night, and Good Luck, while Paul Haggis proved he is both an able writer and director with Crash. Good to see James Mangold back on form with Walk the Line after a couple of duffers. But, please, no nomination for Spielberg for the ultra-average Munich.
