As Americans prepare to cast the first votes of the 2016 election race, at a glance, here is what is at stake for the three Democratic and 11 Republican hopefuls.
Hillary Clinton
Lost the state in 2008 to an outsider called Barack Obama. Needs to stop the same happening again with Sanders to reassure nervous Democratic leaders.
Bernie Sanders
If the revolution starts anywhere, it needs to start here. A win could snowball, a heavy loss would be a buzzkill for the democratic socialist from Vermont.
Martin O’Malley
The former Maryland governor is likely to struggle to reach the 15% threshold in many Democratic precincts. Wipeout may spell lights out.
Donald Trump
New York’s bombastic billionaire is looking less confident after a no-show debate drama. Needs to win here to maintain an aura of impregnability.
Ted Cruz
Tarnished by failing to unequivocally back Iowa’s corn ethanol industry and by Canada “birther” distractions. A win or close second would banish doubts for the maverick from Texas and put him back on track to catch Trump.
Marco Rubio
Iowa is alien territory to the establishment’s best hope, but the Florida senator’s new evangelical-tailored message is gaining traction and should deliver him third place.
Ben Carson
The retired neurosurgeon is currently crashing from a brief polling high last November. He could disappear for good in Iowa but is likely to soldier on in hope of recapturing that brief momentum.
Rand Paul
A one-time darling of the libertarian right, the Kentucky senator is staging a late recovery in Iowa. Fourth place could save his campaign (for now).
Jeb Bush
The former frontrunner is banking on New Hampshire to salvage what is left of his campaign. Iowa threatens to be a disaster, but expectations are at least suitably low.
Chris Christie
Likewise, the New Jersey governor is more at home on the east coast, but even a handful of Iowan votes will be helpful when it comes to staging the establishment fightback in New Hampshire.
Mike Huckabee
If the conservative former governor of Arkansas still means anything, it is to the evangelicals of Iowa who helped him win the state in 2008. A dismal showing here means it is time to go home.
John Kasich
As the designated grownup in the Republican establishment, the Ohio governor is pinning his hopes on breakthrough in New Hampshire not Iowa.
Carly Fiorina
The former CEO of Hewlett Packard is a long way from her comfort zone out here in the prairies. She is barely registering but will probably hold on for the next battle.
Rick Santorum
Like Huckabee, the former Pennsylvania senator and social conservative is only competing in 2016 because he won Iowa before, in 2012. Heavy defeat here this time will have him packing his bags for good.
