The Six Nations starts less than two months after the conclusion of the kick-and-chase festival that called itself the Autumn Nations Cup. The sterile environments in empty stadiums stripped heat and passion from matches, but the general unwillingness to run from deep was not a symptom of Covid-19 but the continuation of a trend towards defence and low risk.
Even the Scotland head coach, Gregor Townsend, who as a player was known for his daring and invention, said he did not think style was important and that the best way to give supporters a lift was to win. He felt the lack of atmosphere at grounds in the autumn meant there was little sense of occasion but, as the Six Nations prepare to go into partnership with a private equity company, winning converts will become as significant as winning matches.
This may be the last Six Nations, for a while at least, when all the matches are screened on terrestrial television. Pay TV has been encouraged to bid for the rights packages that start next year, which will include the autumn internationals as well as the Six Nations, but having the widest possible audience is timely this year, with all the competing nations subject to lockdowns or curfews, making live sport a welcome diversion.
The audience will be smaller behind a paywall and while the Six Nations has never put an emphasis on entertainment, unlike the Rugby Championship, because it has never had to, played before full houses and saturated in media coverage, they will now have to start selling the game itself, not just its rights. What was served up in the autumn, allowing for the echo chambers the matches were staged in, was hardly an inducement, not so much because of the precious few moments of inspiration but the uniformity of the play.
The distinct national characteristics, which used to be part of the Six Nations appeal, have largely gone, and not just because all the teams with the exception of France have imported head coaches over the years. With defences now so organised and conditioning levels high, running from your own half, unless there is the most inviting of counterattacks after a poor kick or a turnover, is too great a risk with referees set on a contest at the breakdown.
And so the most talked about players tend to be forwards or half-backs, players who are constantly involved, but it is players such as Henry Slade, Jonny May, Anthony Watson, Gaël Fickou, Teddy Thomas, Garry Ringrose, Jordan Larmour, James Lowe, Stuart Hogg, Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams who should be selling the game. Part of rugby’s appeal used to be the balance between brutality and beauty, the battle up front deciding which backs had the better ball. It is now more homogeneous, with teams identified by their jerseys rather than style of play.
England swept all before them last year after recovering from their defeat to South Africa in the World Cup final, but they never found top gear. Perhaps their fortunate late victory in extra time over a virtual France reserve side to win the Autumn Nations Cup at Twickenham, profiting from a disputed refereeing decision, will spur them to climb higher. They have the means, even with three props plus Joe Launchbury and Sam Underhill, missing from their pack, but it is a question of will.
Eddie Jones has always operated under the principle that sport is the art of the possible, but seldom as a coach will he have had such a massed rank of talent to choose from. A consequence of the financial constraints on Premiership clubs in recent years has been more of a reliance on academy products than imports, and from being in a position a few seasons ago of having to disguise the lack of an openside flanker, the head coach now has to omit players from the squad who would have been an automatic choice.
The greatest threat to England again looks to be France. They, too, have been hit by injuries, but also have the resources to minimise the impact. Fabien Galthié reflected this week that the rivalry between the two countries started with the hundred years war and took in Napoleon, but it is 16 years since England met their Waterloo at Twickenham. It was two years ago that France lost 44-8, defensively inept and playing as if they had been introduced to each other that morning.
None of the starting pack that day remains in the squad and two of the backs. Galthié has not only changed the make-up of his side but hardened attitudes, not least through his defence coach, Shaun Edwards, someone not given to taking shortcuts. They kick as much as England, but they also offload more and have a better sense of opportunity when play becomes unstructured.
The three Celtic nations have ground to make up. Ireland and Wales are moving away from long-established coaching regimes but are finding that paradigm shifts take time. There are signs Wales’s Wayne Pivac, who has a break clause in his contract at the end of the year, will take a step back to go forward: having blooded a number of young players in the autumn, he has turned again to experience. But without a crowd in Cardiff against Ireland and England, they will need to generate far greater ardour than they did in Llanelli two months ago.
Scotland, for all Townsend’s dismissal of the entertainment factor, have derring-do in Finn Russell and Cameron Redpath and a pack to supply them. They promise to be the team to watch. Italy, six years after their last victory in the tournament, are investing in youth but their tendency to fade in the final 20 minutes will continue to cost them.
Sport is about playing to your strengths, and the opposition’s weaknesses. Scotland and France are more effective with the ball in hand than most, while Pivac’s expansive approach relies on a domination up front he has yet to enjoy. If winning is everything, there is more than one way to achieve it.
This Six Nations will be played exclusively to a television audience, potentially its highest, that has been ordered to stay at home. It is an opportunity at a time when home advantage has been suspended, but who will dream to dare?
