If Cardiff hinted at a wider truth, Lord's confirmed it: this series will be won by the side most adept with metaphorical needle and thread – the one which can patch itself together the better. England ended 75 anomalous years because Mitchell Johnson fell to pieces on the first day and because Andrew Flintoff – finally acknowledging the benefits of a fuller length – etched himself heroically and indelibly into the honours board. As we suspected after Cardiff, both sides lack a killer instinct. But what a series they are producing.
The strangeness of Lord's was the ease with which Australia rolled over and kissed goodbye to an unbeaten record stretching back to 1934. Ricky Ponting claimed his team "fought well" from the second half of the third day onwards, but he surely meant the fourth day instead. Ponting has been impeccable with the press all tour, a model of straight talking and generally good humour: the treatment he received at Lord's, where old-timers reckoned only Mark Ramprakash, returning for the first time with Surrey to take on his old club, had been booed in living memory, was embarrassing.
But Australia showed no fight, bottle or nous until Michael Clarke and Brad Haddin added 185 for the sixth wicket on Sunday evening. Johnson was undergoing a form of very public, very unedifying breakdown; Peter Siddle has yet to wake up on this tour; and Nathan Hauritz bowled pretty well in the second innings with a recently dislocated middle finger but still went for five an over. Only Ben Hilfenhaus is upholding a proud tradition – and, as yet, he's still streets behind Terry Alderman.
As at Cardiff, though, England must not allow the result to mask their own deficiencies. Had Australia not bowled so miserably in the first two sessions – by which time England were an absurd 255 for two – the Lord's hoodoo might still be intact. Ravi Bopara (did Shane Warne get it right about his weakness for style at the expense of substance?) and Kevin Pietersen form a nervy No3–4 combination at present, with Pietersen now in doubt for Edgbaston because of achilles trouble. And, to the delight of many readers, that could mean a return for Ian Bell.
Stuart Broad (four series wickets at 64 each) seems unclear that his strength lies in pitching the ball up. And Flintoff, for all his bullish brilliance yesterday morning, will do well to get through back-to-back Tests at Edgbaston and Headingley on one leg. Australia, don't forget, still reached 400 in their fourth innings after being 128 for five. Don't forget, either, that no England bowler currently averages under 30 in the series, and that Australia have so far taken 35 wickets to England's 26 (and scored five hundreds to England's one).
In years past Australia would have punished these weaknesses. Now you are wondering how on earth this same team won a Test series earlier this year in South Africa. Rarely has a three-day match in Northampton taken on such significance, but Australia quickly need to answer two questions: can Brett Lee be risked at Edgbaston and has Stuart Clark lost his nip, just as Jason Gillespie did here four years ago? One thing is for sure: if Johnson sprays it around in Birmingham, England's most partisan crowd is going to let him know.
They will also be determined to write another chapter in the Flintoff farewell tour. Regular readers will know the Spin has not always had the kindest words for a man who, until this game, had not taken a Test five-for since 2005. But – off-field disruptions aside – the criticism stemmed from infuriation as much as anything. Back in February, after the defeat in Jamaica, we wrote: "Again and again Flintoff beat the outside edge, but only with deliveries that were short enough to allow batsmen that extra split second to judge the line and length off the back foot."
Now listen to what Flintoff had to say yesterday after England's bowling coach, Ottis Gibson, had suggested one or two adjustments. "It's quite sad in some ways: I feel I'm getting better as a bowler... I'm learning more about bowling and how to bowl. My length is naturally a little bit shorter and aggressive, but once you get the batters back probably the full ball is a little bit more threatening."
England fans may wonder what might have been had Flintoff come to the realisation earlier in his career, for he looked as dangerous as he ever has done yesterday morning. But if Flintoff has finally worked out when to pitch it up and when to dig it in, he could yet scare the life out of the Aussies in Birmingham. After that, his fate is in the lap of the injury Gods.
England have so far been handed a lifeline by Australia's poor form since the last day of Cardiff onwards. This is their best chance – including 2005, when Australia still had several legends to call on – to win an Ashes series since 1985. Edgbaston will tell us whether they really believe it themselves.
Extract taken from The Spin, guardian.co.uk/sport's weekly take on the world of cricket. Subscribe now, it's free.
