Only sad old men in pubs indulge in “coulda, shoulda” talk, but we are legion among Six Nations followers, so why not? Dublin coulda, shoulda been a grand-slam decider.
As it is, we will almost certainly witness Ireland’s procession towards a second consecutive Six Nations title. Even if they lose.
The reason we are having to carry on like sad old men in pubs is, once again, because of the inconvenient truth of what actually happened. Ireland breezed into Twickenham last weekend and were met by a hurricane, inspired or not by the grand pronouncements of various recent internationals who opined that Ireland could not lose, or even that they were the most complete team in recent memory.
It turns out that they are not. Or that England are better than we had realised. It does not really matter. These are golden times for international rugby, by far the most competitive and exhilarating it has ever been.
Still, a grand-slam decider would have been nice. Over to the other half of the equation that never was – Scotland. To anyone who loves exhilarating rugby, they have been the next best team in this year’s championship but, as always, they have been ravaged by the caprice of the gods and their own eternal inconsistency.
That TMO decision to deny them the win over France in round two still hurts anyone who is not French. Had Scotland gone into last weekend’s trip to Rome standing on three wins from three, with a potential grand-slam decider to come, would they really have let slip a six-point lead over Italy at half-time?
Well, actually, it is quite possible they would. Turns out that they are as mercurial as ever. Or that Italy are better than we had realised.
So, what we are left with is messier than it might have been, but there is skin in the game. Ireland will not want to claim the title with a second consecutive defeat. It is not quite as affirming a statement.
Scotland have material motivation too. Win, and they will claim the triple crown. The last time they did that was in 1990, the year they won the most famous grand-slam decider of them all. Back then, the triple crown was, like the grand slam, an abstract notion. These days there is a trophy that goes with it, minted in 2006. Scotland are the only team never to have touched it.
For the record, they have a mathematical chance of winning another trophy that did not exist in 1990 – the Six Nations trophy itself. If they beat Ireland by more than 38 points and deny them a bonus point, they will be champions, assuming England do not beat France with a bonus point, or France beat England by even more.
In the real world of what actually will happen, Ireland are all but certain to collect the main trophy. A bonus point in defeat would do it, unless England beat France by about 80 points. Even defeat without a bonus point would probably do.
All this talk of bonus points highlights just how inappropriate the scheme is for a short home-or-away tournament such as the Six Nations. Without bonus points, “Super Saturday” would be far more super than it is going to be. True, Ireland’s massive points difference (plus 80) would serve as an effective bonus point, but they and England should be sitting level on points with three wins apiece, with Scotland and France on two. Instead, Ireland have been all but champions since round three.
They are likely to complete the job this weekend. Of all the teams Scotland hate playing, Ireland are top. Scotland have lost nine in a row against them, and all but one of the past 14. They pulled off a surprise win in Dublin in 2010, but that was at Croke Park. They have not won at Lansdowne Road this century.
Brilliant, inconsistent teams tend not to like teams that come at them again and again from all angles with ferocious power and athleticism. Scotland are lethal – and they roll out a big bruiser at inside-centre in Stafford McDowall to try to counteract Ireland’s power – but Ireland, particularly in Dublin, just keep coming. They are on an 18-match winning streak at home. They will be somewhat irked by events at Twickenham a week ago and field the same starting team, as if to make a point of their anger.
Dublin might not be hosting the event it coulda, shoulda been, but the game will be fun. If only we could be less certain of who the champions will be.
