1) Will Germany serve up a cricket score?
The good burghers of Nuremberg will have only one football-related question on their mind on Friday night: can Germany break the record for the highest winning margin in a European qualifier? The Germans hold the current top score thanks to their 13-0 victory in San Marino in 2006 and plenty of Gibraltar-based bookies will be willing to take your money if you want to bet against Joachim Löw’s side beating that tally this time. This is a Gibraltar side that, unlike certain minnows, choose not to defend en masse or rough up professionals but instead attack with quixotic abandon. People say “there are no easy matches any more” as if it is a good thing. It isn’t. It is much more entertaining to watch an occasional football massacre than a hard-fought 5-0 win against another band of well-drilled 4-5-1ers. Go for that glorious goal, Gibraltar! You too, Germany. We want 20! We want 20! We want 20! Paul Doyle
• Schürrle to miss Germany’s Euro 2016 qualifier against Gibraltar
2) McGeady goal would silence Scotland critics
What an atmosphere there will be at Celtic Park! And what high stakes in the match! Group D is the toughest in Europe and although Scotland, the Republic of Ireland and Poland are all as capable of winning away to each other as they are at home, defeat by one against the other would feel like a major setback. Gordon Strachan is likely to go wholeheartedly for the win, while Martin O’Neill will probably take a more cautious approach as usual, sitting deep in Glasgow in a bid to neutralise two of Scotland’s most potent weapons, the pace of Ikechi Anya and the canny movement of Steven Naismith. This week’s headlines about Roy Keane and an irrelevant incident in the team hotel were worth nobody’s time; far more significant is the loss through injury of Ireland’s first-choice midfielders, Glenn Whelan and James McCarthy. Jeff Hendrick and Darron Gibson should be deployed instead, each offering a goal threat on top of their other work. However, the visitors’ most likely source of a goal, especially in view of Scotland’s injuries at full-back, will be another Everton player: and we can surely all agree – particularly if some Scottish fans emit the sort of guff that halfwits such as Gordon McQueen have been calling for this week – that a winning goal from Aiden McGeady would be a beautiful thing to behold. PD
• Keane under investigation after alleged fight
• Strachan: Republic of Ireland will get a battle
• Forde relishes visit to Celtic Park
• Steven Fletcher prepares for biggest test
3) Unsettled Romania aim to deprive Northern Ireland
Romania’s qualification campaign was beset by an unwelcome complication last month when manager Victor Piturca quit to take up a job with the Saudi Arabian club Al Ittihad, who doubtless offered an exciting “project”. The Romanian FA reacted by turning once again to Anghel Iordanescu, who has twice led the country previously. Iordanescu is part of the reason why Al Ittihad like Romanian managers, as he enjoyed a successful spell there nearly a decade ago before, in 2007, retiring from football to pursue a career in politics. Now he has been brought back to football and showed that he is not out of touch by previewing this weekend’s clash with the Group F leaders by saying: “The match against Northern Ireland is extremely important. They have some players who can make the difference. It is a team which is very dangerous on the counterattack.” Iordanescu says that his team will play in the same system that Piturca’s did as Romania rose to second place in the group “but in a much more offensive manner”. Manchester United’s Paddy McNair, then, could be in line for a demanding debut. If he and his team-mates can hold firm again, then Northern Ireland will be a point or three closer to a magnificent achievement. PD
• Northern Ireland scramble to fill void left by Davis injury
• How N. Ireland came within 10 minutes of qualifying for Euro 1984
4) Hiddink’s job on the line against Latvia
It is remarkably early for the World Cup semi-finalists to be fretting about not reaching the expanded European Championship. But two defeats from their first three matches mean Holland are in serious need of a home victory over Latvia on Sunday. The build-up has not gone well, their 3-2 home defeat in Wednesday’s friendly against Mexico highlighting the recurrent defensive problems of a team that has now conceded 10 goals in their last five matches. Defeat to a depleted Latvia team seems unlikely but if the Dutch do lose, then Guus Hiddink will be out of a job: that’s not media speculation, that is what the manager himself has said. “If we lose, it makes sense that I leave,” said the 68-year-old. PD
5) Belgium must find balance against Wales
Belgium manager Marc Wilmots emerged from the summer’s World Cup with one conviction: he needed to tinker with his team to make it more attacking. But Wilmots emerged from Wednesday’s 3-1 friendly win over Iceland with another conviction: he needs to tinker with his team to make it more defensive. “We gave our opponents too many chances,” groaned Wilmots following a contest in which his goalkeeper, Thibaut Courtois, was voted man of the match. “I took the risk of going man to man at the back. [Toby] Alderweireld and [Nicolas] Lombaerts did what they are supposed to do but if the full-backs push up too high, then we get stretched in the middle and are left vulnerable.” Wilmots said that he will instruct his full-backs to be less adventurous against Wales on Sunday and will also scrap the plan in which Axel Witsel plays as an advanced midfielder, instead using him in his more familiar holding role on Sunday. Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see who leads Belgium’s attack against the Welsh: Christian Benteke established himself as first-choice before his injury and the Aston Villa striker impressed on his return on Wednesday, though his two rivals for a starting spot, Romelu Lukaku and Divock Origi, both scored. PD
6) Croatia will beat Italy. Definitely
You won’t catch us sitting on the fence, readers, no siree. We’re going to tell it to you straight up: Italy have never beaten Croatia and they are not about to start now. In fact, Croatia will win away. Here’s the why: Italy’s midfield will be shorn of two key creative midfielders, Andrea Pirlo and Marco Verrati, while Croatia will send out Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic and Mateo Kovacic. With Mario Balotelli having been recalled by Italy and Dejan Lovren in line to play for Croatia, you can bill this as a clash of the Liverpool flops if you really want to, but this game will be decided by the visitors’ superior midfield. PD
• Cruyff blames Balotelli’s ex-clubs for failure to educate him
• Balotelli just another player, says Italy manager Conte
7) Do Armenia have a surprise up their sleeves for Portugal?
Any investigator will tell you that a key step to solving a crime is to determine who stands to benefit from it. But that might lead amateur sleuths to the conclusion that Cristiano Ronaldo was behind that chaotic drone stunt in Belgrade last month, and we wouldn’t want to go around spreading that sort of rumour now, would we? Still, there can be no denying that the decision to punish both Serbia and Albania could boost Portugal’s qualification chances if it is upheld, and that is just as well for Ronaldo & co, who look like they could do with all the help they can get. Armenia are an inconsistent side but possess plenty of quality and could spring a surprise on Friday to make things tough for Portugal again. PD
8) Time for Hodgson to find a team and get the most from it
England are going to qualify for the European Championships. The fans know it and much as they might intimate otherwise, much as they might try convincing themselves otherwise, the players and manager know it too. But what all three parties also know, with almost equal certainty, is that failure will follow. And not failure as in failing to win a competition, rather failure as in failing to extract the most from the raw materials – because, despite apparent evidence, England needn’t be rubbish. They have a decent goalkeeper, promising full-backs, and an experienced, Champions League-winning centre-back – and in front of them, pace, invention, trickery and energy. Yet, under Roy Hodgson, there have been barely a handful of decent performances, and in tournament football, none. Now, though, he has an opportunity to determine his most cohesive XI and inculcate the method that suits it best; if, in the summer of 2016, England do not beat the teams that they should and compete seriously against those that they shouldn’t, the majority of the blame will rest upon one man. Daniel Harris
• Big interview: Ross Barkley
• Baines hopes Hodgson gets extension
• Baines: Jagielka’s speed is common knowledge
9) Fifa’s banjaxed format throws Israel a chance
Uefa has, in some respects, made a nonsense of the European Championship qualifying process. Consider, for example, this remarkable sentence borrowed from its own website: “For television rights reasons, England, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands had to be in six-team sections”. Additionally, given a competition expanded from 16 to 24 teams, it has become impossible, rather than hard, to imagine one of the richer nations missing out.
But, though the integrity of the draw has been compromised, the intrigue of its outcome has intensified; nations who would never have imagined themselves at the finals are now in with a genuine chance. And the yen is particularly acute in Group B, likely to be won by Belgium, but where the tussle between Israel, Cyprus, Wales and Bosnia-Herzegovina is impossible to call. Israel have competed in only one major tournament – the 1970 World Cup – and having won in Nicosia already, will put themselves in a very strong position if they can beat Bosnia-Herzegovina, who have already lost to Cyprus. Crucial to their efforts will be Omer Damari, a speedy and skilful centre-forward whose 28 goals last season earned him a move from Hapoel Tel Aviv to Austria Vienna. And Damari has settled immediately, scoring seven in 11 games, as well as four in two at international level. On the other hand, Edin Dzeko, his opposite number, will be absent with a calf strain, which is to say that this game has come at the right time for Israel; now, they must exploit their preferential circumstance. DH
10) Time for a new guard in Spain
In the history of sport, there have been few teams less beatable than the Spain side which won three consecutive tournaments. This was due principally to a midfield able to retain possession well enough such that a dodgy defence was barely ever tested. But with Xavi retired from international football and players like Koke and Diego Costa in the process of establishing themselves, Vicente del Bosque will need to develop a new, more direct style – regardless of Costa’s unavailability for Saturday night’s game at home to Belarus. The problem, of course, is that this will expose a back-five whose mainstay, Gerard Piqué, is out of favour at club level – with good reason – and whose goalkeeper, Iker Casillas, is clearly past his best. Will Del Bosque have the courage to omit two men who have served him well, or will he continue to persevere, secure in the knowledge that Spain will reach France, regardless? DH
• Fàbregas missing for Spain but should be fit for Chelsea
• Costa left out of Spain squad due to groin concerns
