1) Brazil (=)
It looks like Brazil’s World Cup to lose now. They reduced Mexico to huff and puff, defending more astutely than anyone left in the tournament while moving through the attacking gears when required. Willian, Philippe Coutinho and Thiago Silva have all made decisive contributions in different ways and – if we discount the theatrics – the penny seems to have dropped for Neymar that efficiency can be appealing, too. Belgium are a big hurdle to clear but Brazil simply look a level above.
2) France (up 7)
That breathtaking counterattacking display against Argentina blew a few cobwebs away and, even allowing for the sluggishness of the opposition, suggested France are clicking. In Kylian Mbappé they have a potential star of the tournament while their midfield, often a source of frustration, looked in sync for the most part. They will miss the suspended Blaise Matuidi in that department when they face Uruguay but confidence should now be sky-high.
3) Croatia (down 1)
It was some slog for Croatia against a limited Denmark and certainly brought a shot of realism after their group stage record bred some wild predictions. But they are in a fantastic position nonetheless and it would be a failure if they replicated Spain’s mistakes and gave Russia a sniff of encouragement in Sochi. They do not look like tournament winners but the path to the final could hardly be clearer.
4) Uruguay (=)
There was always the sense that Uruguay, who virtually sleepwalked though a straightforward group, would step things up when the knockout stages began and they were deserving winners over Portugal. What a marvellous couple of goals they were from Edinson Cavani, perhaps shutting a few people up in the process, and under the remarkable Oscar Tabarez anything appears possible at this stage.
5) Belgium (down 2)
A face-off with Brazil looks like a defining test for Belgium, who need to start delivering sooner rather than later. Nobody who watched the nailbiter against Japan will be overly optimistic even if, largely through unorthodox means, they eventually pulled themselves through. The winning goal was a thing of beauty; the bigger concern lies in a defence that looked slow and ponderous when Japan came forward.
6) Sweden (up 3)
They are a team of few stars and required a big deflection to beat Switzerland but Sweden are exactly the kind of awkward, super-organised side nobody likes playing in a knockout game. It is time to treat them seriously given the number of scalps they have taken; Janne Andersson’s team have a habit of pulling through and will fancy themselves to be too smart for England in Samara.
7) England (up 3)
It is, undeniably, a good sign that England put their shootout hex to bed but a baby-steps approach remains the best way to assess their chances. The tempo shown for much of the Colombia tie was exactly what Gareth Southgate will have wanted but the manner and timing of Yerry Mina’s equaliser is a concern. Greater poise will be required if Sweden are to be overcome. Tuesday night’s euphoria was understandable, though, and England have their best chance of reaching a semi-final since Italia 90.
8) Russia (up 7)
While this list ranks Russia lowest of the sides still competing, the reality is that all bets are off now. Stanislav Cherchesov was thrilled with his team’s defensive application – and perhaps their ability to stay awake – amid such a dreary exhibition of possession from Spain, and Russia have certainly shown they can upset the odds in a surprising number of ways. The parties that engulfed Moscow after Sunday’s win will take some beating – Croatia will hold little fear now.
9) Colombia (down 4)
What a disappointing show it was, for the most part, from Colombia against England. The absence of James Rodríguez appeared to persuade them into a niggly, antagonistic mindset that does not become the style they are capable of. They still came mighty close to making it through but the manner of their departure should cause some regret.
10) Japan (up 6)
Only the flint-hearted would have been unmoved at the sight of Japan’s players, beaten with the last action of the game against Belgium, slumped to the floor in Rostov on Monday night. They were superb and it says plenty – both positively and negatively – for their attitude that despite seeing their two-goal lead erased they essentially lost because they tried too hard to win the game. In Takashi Inui they have a marvellous footballer.
11) Mexico (down 5)
The frustration for Mexico was that this last-16 exit felt exactly like the previous six: plenty of smart, bright attacking football, a few flickers to suggest they could outgun a top opponent, but ultimately no cutting edge and no genuinely commanding figure to keep things secure at the back. They were at times a delight to watch this summer but something has to change if they are to realise their potential.
12) Denmark (up 2)
Nobody will hold too many stand-out memories of Denmark’s campaign but they took Croatia all the way and, on another day, Kasper Schmeichel’s heroics would have been enough to win them the shootout. If only they could surround Christian Eriksen with one or two players of remotely comparable technical level.
13) Portugal (=)
The tie with Uruguay always looked to be nip and tuck but Portugal were deservedly beaten and, to nobody’s real surprise, looked bereft of ideas without Cristiano Ronaldo stepping up to the plate. Bernardo Silva, still a disappointment at this level, missed one decent chance to equalise but, like a number of teams they would consider rivals, Portugal have a rebuilding job to do.
14) Argentina (down 2)
When Argentina went 2-1 up against France via Gabriel Mercado’s lucky goal it was tempting to think that, after all that hand-wringing in the group stages, they might just muddle the entire way through. But they were soon enough shown for what they are: a sluggish, ageing side completely inadequate in defence and midfield; the crying shame, and most damning indictment, was that a team including Lionel Messi will not really be missed.
15) Switzerland (down 4)
After a group stage of genuine promise it was flat, anticlimactic fare from Switzerland against Sweden. They woke up too late and lacked the fire and brimstone of the win over Serbia, which now looks to have been an emotional and footballing peak too far for some of their players. Like others in their half of the draw, they will rue a wasted opportunity here.
16) Spain (down 9)
One feels for Spain’s players and staff given the act of sabotage Real Madrid inflicted on their own national team on the eve of the tournament. That still does not excuse their performance against Russia, though, when they seemed content to pass the ball aimlessly from memory after going ahead and had no idea how to respond when the plan went awry. The soul searching will be tough: whoever is to blame, Spain simply had to be better than this.
