It all began with Allegiant, the third film in the Divergent series that made a star out of Shailene Woodley and a solid profit for studio Lionsgate, that was thought to have another Hunger Games-type YA franchise on its hands.
The teen-skewing action pic opened in March. The previous two entries in the series were hits, causing the industry to think it could give Disney’s surprise smash Zootopia a run for its money. Instead Allegiant flamed out, coming in well behind the animated comedy, despite Zootopia being in theaters for close to a month. In the end, Woodley’s star power failed to overcome the bad reviews it received: Allegiant only grossed $110.6m worldwide (including a paltry $66.1m domestically), coming in well behind what its two preceding films made, and forcing Lionsgate’s stock to slide dramatically.
The poor showing raised questions about the commercial viability of the upcoming fourth and final film in the Divergent franchise. It’s unlikely, however, that Hollywood could have predicted at the time that Allegiant’s disappointing performance portended bad things to come for the majority of tentpole sequels that would soon follow in its wake.
Since Allegiant bombed, studios have watched in horror as sequels, expected to perform stronger than their predecessors, came in well behind expectations. “Sequelitis,” a term used by the Hollywood Reporter’s Pamela McClintock in her recent article, Hollywood’s New Problem: Sequels Moviegoers Don’t Want, seems to have taken ahold of audiences.
The sequel to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Out of the Shadows, is just the latest summer blockbuster to underperform with its core fanbase, lagging well behind the 2014 reboot with a modest $35.3m opening (the first film earned $65.6m within its first three days of release). The week before, Disney’s long in the works sequel, Alice Through the Looking Glass, launched to even less with $26.9m, coming in a whopping 77% behind Alice in Wonderland. That same week, X-Men: Apocalypse trounced Alice with $65.8m – but even that sum couldn’t come close to matching the $90.8m that the previous X-Men film, Days of Future Past, made over the same timeframe in 2014.
Worst hit, though, was The Huntsman: Winter’s War, a follow-up to 2012’s box office smash Snow White and the Huntsman, which limped its way to the finish line earning just $47.6m in the US, after opening in April to a dismal $19.4m during its opening weekend.
Even Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising suffered, coming in over 50% below Neighbors at its debut, proving that comedies aren’t immune.
Flopping isn’t the only thing all these summer films have in common – they were all also largely negatively reviewed.
It’s therefore telling that Captain America: Civil War, the only sequel to receive rave notices this season, is also the only one to rake in a billion dollars. In 2015, the five films to hit or surpass that mark were all sequels. So far, the only other film to join the enviable club is Zootopia, which is itself a wholly original property. Still, Captain America, which is widely considered to be a third Avengers film despite its title, has failed to match the heights set by the first two films in the superhero franchise.
Studios can console themselves in believing that Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice serves as an exception to the trend, since it grossed $871.9m worldwide, eclipsing Man of Steel, which earned $668m in 2013. But as the film touted to launch Warner Bros’ ambitious Justice League cinematic universe, the failure to cross the billion-dollar line is a troubling kickoff for Warner Bros. The terrible reviews Zac Snyder’s film was lambasted with couldn’t have helped matters.
As box-office analyst Paul Dergarabedian affirmed to the Hollywood Reporter: “Sequels of late have fallen on rough times.”
“2016 has proven to be a very tough battleground, and the landscape has been littered with a series of sequels that have come up short, and thus call into question the entire notion of the inherent appeal of non-original, franchise-based content,” he added.
Pixar’s upcoming sequel to Finding Nemo, Finding Dory, is the film expected to buck Hollywood’s summer of discontent. Variety reports that the animated comedy is on pace to give the studio the biggest opening of its history when it opens on 17 June. Analysts are pegging it to a debut between $115m and $120m, ahead of Pixar’s biggest opener yet, Toy Story 3, which bowed to $110m in 2010. Should Finding Dory perform as predicted, it would blow past the $70m opening of Finding Nemo in 2003, and likely eclipse the $936.7m it made worldwide. Reviews have yet to hit for the pic, but given Pixar’s stellar track-record (save for Cars 2), Finding Dory should be in good shape.
The jury is still out on how Independence Day: Resurgence will go over once it bows later this month. It could very well hit a retro nerve like Jurassic World did last summer and do massive business. Or it could perform on par with director Roland Emmerich’s last two blockbusters (White House Down and 2012) - and fail to crack the billion dollar ceiling.
Whatever the outcome, this season has hopefully served as a wake-up call to Hollywood to produce more original content, and make sequels that do the originals proud.
