The first sign that the night would improve for Channel Seven’s star guest, Alan Jones, came at 7.30pm.
The ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, had just seen the numbers with just 10% of the vote counted.
“And at the moment the projected figures just do not look like the opinion polls that were published,” he said. “In fact, they’re like the reverse of the opinion polls from earlier in the day.”
Resplendent in a green pastel suit and matching tie, Jones was mourning the likely political demise of the member for Warringah.
“Tony Abbott being Tony Abbott he thinks ... no individual is bigger than the party,’ Jones said. “If Tony loses this is a great loss to Australia and the Liberal party, but we should be very pleased with the results elsewhere for the Liberal party.”
Abbott hadn’t even conceded but Jones was already putting the boot into his opponent, Zali Steggall.
Steggall said she cared about climate change but had a bus “being towed by a Hummer station wagon which is the biggest petrol guzzler in the country”, he said.
By 8pm, back on Aunty’s set with Leigh Sales and Annabel Crabb, Green was more definitive about the direction the election was taking.
“We’re not seeing Labor waltz into office as some people expected to see tonight,” he said.
By 8.20pm, as the shock of the Coalition’s unexpectedly strong performance began to sink in, Barnaby Joyce popped up on a live-cross on Nine surrounded by the yellow-shirted supporters he called “killer canaries”.
He also popped up on Sky, holding his arms up in victory like an Olympic athlete. “The resources GetUp put in there [Cowper]. Sucked in fellas! You went for the sucker trap again didn’t you? Put all your resources into a seat you weren’t going to win ... Thank you very much GetUp for being completely and utterly dopey.”
By 9pm, Green was more definitive. The Labor party “can’t reach majority government”, he said, but the Coalition could.
“At this stage, it is very hard to see anything other than the Coalition staying in government,” he said. “But we don’t know whether that is a majority or minority government. We can’t see Labor forming government on the numbers at the moment.”
By 9.30pm it was all over for Labor. “Let’s put it out on the table here,” Green said. “At this stage, we think the Morrison government has been re-elected.
“We can’t see an alternative to a Morrison government in the numbers we’re seeing at the moment.
“We’re just not sure in what position it will be returned. Will it be a majority? Will it be a minority? That’s where the pre-polls will determine what happens.”
When Sky News host Chris Kenny arrived at Abbott’s gathering in Warringah near Manly beach he was a little dramatic, declaring that Abbott had a “Churchillian battle” and that he was “fighting on the beaches”.
But by the time Abbott delivered his concession speech, in which he celebrated a likely Coalition victory, Kenny had cheered up.
Sky’s special relationship with the Coalition ensured the network got the only interview.
There had been a “massive array of dark forces” trying to oust him, Abbott said, naming GetUp, the independents and Labor.
Kenny agreed, asking if this was “an ugly and dangerous new phase in Australian politics”.
Back on Seven, at the tail-end of the night, Labor’s Chris Bowen was wedged in between Michaelia Cash and Jones, fighting a rearguard action. Defeat for Labor was confirmed. Shorten would concede in an hour. Bowen told the panel that climate change was still important, and that “the Liberal party have not yet told us what their policies are”.
Jones was joyous. “You people cannot persist with this notion of 45% emissions reductions.”
“The difference between us, Alan, is that I believe in climate change,” Bowen said.
All Jones had to do was point. “Look at the scoreboard!” he said. “I believe in the scoreboard.”