After all the dithering this week about ground, distance and stalls position, it is time for punters to make up their minds about the longstanding Derby favourite, Saxon Warrior (4.30). Most of us have probably gone back and forth over the same questions more often than is really healthy in the last few days but in the last analysis and without wishing to be reductive about it, he is the standout talent and perfectly capable of rising to the challenge facing him.
His draw in stall one is not some distraction to be waved away; repeated experience over the last decade suggests it is the wrong place to start if you want to win over this course and distance. But few of those who have tried can have been in a field one-third of which is made up of their stablemates.
The saving grace is that Saxon Warrior does not have to go forward from the off. I expect Ryan Moore to settle him towards the rear and make his ground gradually around the edge of the field, doubtless getting a good tow from one or more of his stablemates. If that is the plan, a bit of juice in the ground will be helpful, since it reduces the chance of some pacesetter building an unassailable advantage while Moore creeps forward.
The big question for the favourite is whether he truly has the stamina for a mile and a half and the circumstances of this race mean he will probably face a thorough test on that score. At around even-money, or close to it, I am perfectly happy to take that chance. His pedigree and form suggest 10 furlongs is well within his compass. We shall have to keep our fingers crossed for the last 24 seconds.
On fast, summer ground, I would have been sorely tempted by Roaring Lion, who showed such pace at York, but the recent rain has undermined his chance of lasting home.
The most interesting alternatives are Delano Roosevelt and Zabriskie, both of whom could improve on all previous form over this distance, on ground with some give. But both are stablemates of Saxon Warrior and it would be easier to fancy their chances if they represented connections determined to cause an upset. Even so, Zabriskie is over-priced at 66-1 and an each-way play on him is very tempting.
2.00 Epsom His winning run came to an end at Ascot last time, when he was outpaced on a fast surface, but Corazon Espinado might be able to go well again in these different circumstances. He won here, at his local track, in April.
2.35 Epsom Fast ground may have been part of the problem for Anna Nerium in the Guineas, when she finished in midfield in a race won by a much less fancied stablemate. Progressive as a juvenile, she was quite an impressive winner of the Free Handicap in April and could resume her upward curve on this more suitable surface. On breeding, she should have plenty of improvement left in her.
3.10 Epsom Arod may be remembered by some as the fourth-placed horse from the 2014 Derby. Having lost his form here and spent time in Australia, he has returned to a new stable and won at Windsor last month. He will be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, though that seems unlikely in this field, so a better bet could be Century Dream. He can be forgiven a reappearance flop on heavy in France and put up a career best when scoring at Ascot last time.
3.45 Epsom The stands’ side has often been the place to be in this, one of the fastest and scariest races of the year, and that seems even more likely to be true after Friday’s races, with the winner of the Coronation Cup finishing hard against the outer rail. Dark Shot is well drawn with that in mind, so long as he is able to hold a respectable position through the early stages. He could not do that last year but finished strongly to be beaten by a short-head. Having changed stables in the winter, he put up a fine comeback effort when second at York a fortnight ago and is surely ready to go close again here. Stalls position has not meant much to Caspian Prince, who won this from a high draw in 2016 and from a low draw last year. His recent form raises doubt as to whether he can do it once more at the age of nine.
Doncaster 1.20 High Wells 1.55 New Winds 2.30 Artistic Rifles 3.05 White Chocolate 3.40 Urbino (nap) 4.15 Mootasadir 4.50 Madam Devious 5.25 Maghaweer
Hexham 1.30 Mac Cennetig 2.05 Dartford Warbler 2.40 Weinberg 3.15 Cherif De L’Isle 3.50 The Jam Man 4.45 Misfits 5.20 Pray For A Rainbow
Musselburgh 1.40 Mecca’s Spirit 2.15 No Lippy 2.50 Dynamic 3.25 Beshaayir 4.00 Rockwood (nb) 4.55 Merhoob 5.30 Tapis Libre
Worcester 1.45 Northandsouth 2.20 Azzerti 2.55 Pearls Legend 3.30 Kracquer 4.05 Top Of The Charts 5.00 Will O’The West 5.35 Little Millie 6.05 King Vince
Epsom 2.00 Corazon Espinado 2.35 Anna Nerium 3.10 Century Dream 3.45 Dark Shot 4.30 Saxon Warrior 5.15 Dash Of Spice 5.50 Aces
Chepstow 6.00 Upended 6.30 Attest 7.00 Tizwotitiz 7.30 Here’s Two 8.00 Flying Sparkle 8.30 Kinglami 9.00 David’s Beauty
Lingfield 5.40 Attain 6.10 Midnight Blue 6.40 Dame Nellie 7.10 Miss Elsa 7.40 Defining Moment 8.10 Just Maybe 8.40 Havana Breeze
