Deaths from dementia and cancer will soar between now and 2040, putting NHS end-of-life services under intense pressure, research has found.
The number of people in England and Wales dying from dementia will almost quadruple, from 59,199 in 2014 to 219,409 in 2040, according to estimates published in the journal BMC Medicine.
Deaths from cancer will also rise, from 143,638 in 2014 to a projected 208,636, said experts in palliative care from the Cicely Saunders Institute of King’s College London.
They reached their conclusions after analysing mortality data from 2006-14 and projecting trends.
The number of people dying every year will rise by 25% to 628,659. However, there will be a much bigger increase – 42% – in those needing palliative care.
“By 2040 at least 160,000 more people each year are likely to have palliative care needs, including pain management of chronic illnesses and end-of-life care at hospitals, hospices and at home,” the authors concluded.
“There is an urgent need to act now to transform health, social and palliative care services to meet the projected growth,” said Prof Irene Higginson, the institute’s director.
Dr Matthew Norton, director of policy and strategy at Alzheimer’s Research UK, said the study’s findings were “very alarming”. “Dementia is our greatest medical challenge and we know that unless research can deliver new treatments and preventions, this challenge will only get worse, as these findings highlight,” he said.
Dr Ros Taylor, clinical director at the charity Hospice UK, said: “This projected massive increase in future demand for palliative care will have far-reaching implications for our healthcare system and society at large and is something that all care providers, including families, need to prepare for now as a matter of urgency.”
