Alf Garnett: Well, I mean, if we go into Europe…
Else Garnett: I thought we was in Europe. I mean, I thought we always have been.
Alf Garnett: I know that yer silly moo. I’m not talking about that aspect am I? I’m talking about the Common Market aspect of going into Europe.
Old Enoch’s against it, ain’t ’e, eh? He don’t want no more bloody foreigners over here. We got enough bloody foreigners here as it is. Bloody country’s swarming with Eyeties and Krauts and Froggies and Spagnolleys and Brussels Sprouts. All coming over here and taking our jobs off us, aren’t they?
Else Garnett: Well, we can go over there and take the jobs off of them.
Alf Garnett: I don’t want to go over there, do I?
Else Garnett: I wish you would.
– from The Alf Garnett Saga, 1972
In 1970s Britain, the views of the nation’s most notorious comedy bigot failed to carry the day. A year after this film spin-off of Till Death Us Do Part was released, the prime minister, Edward Heath, ignored Alf’s strictures on foreigners and took Britain into the European Economic Community.
The first crisis of an eternally fractious relationship with Brussels came two years later when, to appease its own Eurosceptic wing, the then Labour government called an in/out referendum. A thumping 67% of voters eventually backed Britain’s continuing membership of the EEC. But it was a rocky old start and, to invert the New Labour D:Ream anthem, things were only going to get worse. By 1990, Margaret Thatcher was saying “No! No! No!” to enhanced status for the European parliament and the Sun was screaming over her shoulder “Up Yours Delors!” at the French socialist president of the European commission.
Plus ça change. Four decades after we took the plunge, the BBC has just announced a revival of Till Death Us Do Part and the country is again voting on whether to stay in what is now a hugely expanded European Union: one that includes Poles, Slovaks and Romanians as well as “Froggies” and “Spagnolleys”. The betting shops report a one-sided contest thus far, with the serious money being placed on Remain to win – an outcome that is odds-on at 3-1. But British Europhiles would do well to guard against complacency. The most vivid lesson of the Observer’s Europe Uncovered survey, published today, is that three months or so before the June referendum immigration is the nation’s chief preoccupation and EU migration is a principal cause of the angst. This is still a country in which Alf Garnett’s reflections would still get a respectful hearing down many locals.
The survey, which places the Remain and Leave campaigns neck and neck, was conducted before David Cameron completed his renegotiation of the terms of the UK’s membership of the EU. But it seems unlikely that a complicated “emergency brake” on in-work benefits for EU migrants will reassure many, such is the depth of antipathy towards a perceived Europe of open borders.
For well over half those questioned, immigration is among the three most important issues facing the UK. A clear majority believe that migration between the UK and the rest of the EU has been a bad thing for Britain. Broken down into specific areas, the picture becomes relentlessly and overwhelmingly negative.
A substantial majority believe that free movement within the EU has been bad for jobs, bad for the NHS, bad for the poor, bad for crime and bad for housing. There is a small hurrah for the greater cultural diversity that migrants bring. But even that note of optimism is overshadowed by the judgment that immigration has been bad for the nation’s “social values”. The borderless Schengen zone within the EU, now strained to breaking point by desperate refugees fleeing Syria, is viewed as a folly (though interestingly, there is huge support for a concerted EU-wide effort to solve the crisis). For the generation of British politicians who backed the expansion of the EU eastwards and embraced the free movement of labour throughout the union, there has been a catastrophic failure to convince the public that any of this was a good idea.
Can the Outers turn the vote on EU membership into a referendum on immigration? That would certainly give them the best chance of achieving Brexit. But it appears to be the only potential trump card available. Britons don’t feel particularly “European” (only 15% would ever describe themselves in that way), but they are wary of economic isolation and not particularly troubled over other aspects of EU membership. Over half of respondents want Britain to remain part of a European trading bloc, with only 14% happy to go it alone, and a majority also believes that “the rise of China and other countries means Britain needs to be in the EU to compete in the world”. The vote on 23 June may well become a battle between the new insularity that has emerged following recent waves of migration, and a sense that pulling up the country’s drawbridge would be an act of economic self-harm.
It will also pit the young against the old and, to a striking degree, London against the regions. An instinctive Europhile is likely to be aged between 25 and 34 years old and living in London. He or she is likely to have at least one friend from another EU country, believe that immigration is a positive benefit and is apparently keener on holidaying in posh parts of France than the costas of Spain.
The actual issue of EU membership will never have been a big concern. In fact, the achilles heel of the Remain campaign could be an inability to get this type of voter to the polling booth. Only 45% of Londoners are certain they will cast a vote on 23 June, compared to 72% in the rest of the south east, where Leave supporters hold the whip hand. Overall, Outers are more likely to vote than Inners. Older, more committed and more passionate about their cause, they could yet profit from the relative apathy of their opponents to win a famous victory.
That still feels like a long shot, with the most likely referendum outcome being an ill-tempered collective decision to stay in the club, while continuing to grumble from the armchair in the corner. On the most basic question of all – is EU membership generally good or bad for Britain? – only committed Ukippers turn their thumbs downwards. A majority of supporters of all other parties appear to consider the glass half full, albeit with grave reservations.
We like to hold on to our cherished prejudices about our neighbours: Germans are considered “arrogant” and “aggressive”, but also the most efficient Europeans; the French are the most “cowardly”, the Spanish the most “relaxed” and the Italians the most “stylish”. We think of ourselves as funnier, more generous and more welcoming than any of them. Yes, the ancient stereotypes are still the most enjoyable, as Alf Garnett always understood. But tempted though many of us undoubtedly are to cut the Brussels ties that bind, one senses that Britain is not quite angry enough to go its own way.
