Why is the chief of general staff Sir Nick Carter making this intervention now?
Military chiefs calling for more spending is almost as regular an event as the first cuckoo call. Usually, the calls are left to retired generals and admirals. It is safer for them to make the case; for serving officers it is harder, with the risk of clashing with political masters.
Carter has a strained relationship with the defence secretary, Gavin Williamson, and his predecessor Sir Michael Fallon, but his intervention, through a speech to the Royal United Services Institute in London, is done with the approval of Williamson and the Ministry of Defence machine.
He is making the plea now because the government is about to announce a new defence spending review and the next few months will be dominated by a push by Williamson and the MoD for a rise in the £36bn defence budget.
Does Russia present a credible threat to the UK?
Russia has been a useful bogeyman since the annexation of the Crimea by Russia in 2014. UK military chiefs were spooked when Russia, during an intervention in Ukraine, used a combination of drones and artillery to destroy Ukrainian armour, and raised questions about whether the UK would be able to do much better than the Ukrainians in similar circumstances.
The UK is far enough away for Russia not to pose a territorial threat. But UK forces are deployed in the Baltic states along with US and other Nato forces as a deterrent in the unlikely event of a Russian landgrab.
Russia does present a threat through hybrid warfare, the use of deniable acts of disruption, primarily cyber-attacks on the UK that could disrupt essential services or interference in the democratic process, such as in elections.
Does the Ministry of Defence need more cash?
The UK spends more on defence than France, Germany, Italy, Spain or any other EU country. The problem for the UK is that much of this is on the renewal of the Trident nuclear programme and on two expensive new aircraft carriers, leaving conventional forces such as the army in short supply, as well as surface ships and aircraft.
The UK spends 2% of GDP on defence. The MoD would like to see this closer to 3%, but that would mean cuts in health, education or other state spending.
Will Carter’s intervention annoy the Treasury?
The chancellor, Philip Hammond, despite being a former defence secretary, is not sympathetic to a further rise in defence spending, given the pressures elsewhere on the government budget.
But he has had to live with a series of criticisms from retired generals that the UK’s conventional forces are being hollowed out, and he has become almost immune to it over the past few months. Williamson, as a new defence secretary, is out to prove himself as the MoD’s champion – and further his own political career.
The new strategic defence review is expected to last for at least a few months, so expect endless leaks about the state of UK defences. Hammond has some ammunition of his own, through a Cabinet Office review started in the summer to take a look at the UK’s overall security needs. This was partly prompted by a series of Islamist terrorist attacks inside the UK. The debate that followed has been whether the biggest threat to the UK comes from terrorism or from state actors such as Russia.
The consensus has come down on the side of the intelligence services, which have seen big rises in their budgets. They also have pole position in tackling cyber-attacks.
Will Brexit have an impact on UK defence?
Other European Union countries have already begun preparing for a common defence force without the UK. EU leaders have been spooked by Donald Trump’s contradictory positions towards Nato, in particular that the US would not necessarily honour its Nato commitment to come to the aid of a member invaded by Russia.
The European defence force, in particular closer defence procurement, is still at an early stage but it might yet have a future.
The UK position is that the only realistic protection for western Europe is through Nato. Only a Nato with the US as a member has the capacity to stand up to Russia.
