Half a mile from where Sadiq Khan grew up on the Henry Prince estate in Wandsworth, a small gaggle of Labour activists are gathering in Earlsfield, with the real prospect of taking back a council that has been Conservative since the London mayor was at primary school.
Wandsworth, famously Margaret Thatcher’s favourite borough, has been a flagship Tory council for 40 years, pioneering the outsourcing of local services and famous for its ultra-low council tax.
Labour campaigners have been buoyed by June 2016’s general election result, in which Labour ousted the Tory minister Jane Ellison in Battersea and slashed the majority of the then-cabinet minister Justine Greening in Putney.
Housing is on the mind of many voters, said the MP for Tooting, Rosena Allin-Khan, out with the canvassers in Earlsfield where the ward is held by two Tory councillors and one Labour.
“Housing is something that affects everyone, regardless of age or socioeconomic status, in council homes, renting or worrying about whether your children can ever afford to buy in the same area,” she said.
One emblem is the controversial development of the former Battersea power station. Labour has said it would review the planning applications from developers in order to force them to reinstate plans for more affordable flats, controversially slashed last year with Wandsworth council’s approval.
Simon Hogg, the Labour leader on the council, said the sight of the development was causing feelings of resentment. “People can see a big tower block going up and yet know none of their friends, or their children, are going to get to live there,” he said.
The housing crisis had created some of the conditions for a possible Labour victory, Hogg said. “Wandsworth Tories aggressively sold off thousands of council homes to create this very large private rented sector, believing that would be a huge electoral advantage to them,” he said. “These are the renters who elected Marsha de Cordova in Battersea and gave Rosena such a big majority in Tooting.”
However, Wandsworth council’s housing strategy is a key pledge that Tories in the borough are also fighting on, it having committed to delivering an extra 1,000 homes in the next five years, 60% of them affordable, built directly with council money. There is a significant housebuilding pipeline, though Labour argues not enough are affordable homes.
However, it is the Tories’ low council tax pledge that is the key appeal to most voters. It still remains the second cheapest in the country at £716.51 a year for a band D property and estate agents use it to advertise their listings.
Jo Rigby, who is standing in Earlsfield, admitted the low council tax message “does work, especially when people move into the area ... but what we are increasingly hearing is that, we would rather pay more and get better services”.
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Labour has said it would freeze council tax for the next two years. But John Locker, a newly elected Tory councillor who won his Thamesfield seat in a November byelection, said voters were sceptical.
“I don’t think we understand how Labour can square that circle of extra spending now but not taxing more,” he said. “I want to improve Wandsworth, but in order to do that we have to manage our residents’ council tax money.”
Locker’s victory was a boost for the Conservatives. He won his Putney seat at a low point for the Tories, after a difficult party conference for Theresa May, resignations of cabinet ministers and a tough Brexit negotiation, and amid a blitz of Labour activism.
“Angela Rayner, Chris Williamson and lots of other Labour MPs came, there were hundreds of Momentum activists, but it didn’t work for them and we held the seat quite comfortably,” he said.
“My campaign focused on local issues, what we can do to help shops on the high street, promoting cycling and pushing for a new entrance to [Putney] station to ease congestion. I think we have quite a sophisticated electorate; some tell us as well they vote differently locally to how they vote nationally.”
Labour holds 19 seats and looks like it will make comfortable headway into the mid-20s, but the maths looks more difficult to get a majority. It would mean taking some of the most affluent wards in the country, where Labour councillors have not been elected since the 1960s.
The former Tory MP Richard Tracey, latterly Wandsworth’s London assembly member, said incumbency was a key strength. “Statistically, Labour is strong in five wards, they have a lot of votes in a small number of wards. They will have to fight very hard in wards they don’t hold – it’s a high hill to climb.”
Locker said Labour may have talked itself into a corner. “I do think the pressure is on Labour given how they have talked up Wandsworth as a crown jewel, winning this iconic council. I personally would never take voters of Wandsworth for granted. We have a strong manifesto on keeping council tax low, affordable housing, keeping weekly bin collections, things that really matter to local people.”
Allin-Khan said in those seats where Labour needed steep numbers to win, the most crucial final hurdle would be getting Labour voters to the polls. “We’ll be piggy-backing people to the polling stations at 9.59pm.”
