Nobel peace prize 2015 goes to Tunisian civil society groups – live updates

We’re bringing a close to this live blog now, many thanks for reading. Read our full story on the Tunisian national dialogue quartet and their Nobel peace prize win here.

It was an unexpected victory – around the world, people in newsrooms were rbiefly muttering, “Who?” – but focused attention on a worthwhile and somewhat ignored peace and reconciliation process. And in the very best traditions of the prize, no one outside a single small room in Oslo saw it coming.

More reaction from the quartet, from my colleague Angelique Chrisafis:

Mokhtar Trifi is honorary president of the Tunisian Human Rights League (LTDH) after he was its president from 2000 under the Ben Ali regime until the Tunisian revolution in 2011.

A lawyer for the last 30 years, he is also a member of the Tunisian Order of Lawyers. Both organisations are in the quartet which has won the Nobel peace prize. He has also acted as lawyer for the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT) which is part of the quartet.

He said: “This is extraordinary news. It’s a clear encouragement for the wider process in Tunisia, and for all the work and dialogue that went into the move to elections and democracy. Crucially, it shows that the world is watching us. We have much more to accomplish and are facing new challenges. We have to save our country from terrorism and from economic crisis. We’re counting on good will from the West so that we aren’t isolated on those new challenges.”

He said the Tunisian Human Rights League was the biggest organisation for the defence of human rights in the Arab world and in Africa, and had been firmly rooted civil society with grassroots organisations all over the country.

He said:“For decades we had been working to show that democracy was necessary. After the revolution people said we’d shrink because everyone now would respect human rights. But we’ve grown and we’re still working and playing a major role.”

Trifi said that working for the Tunisian Human Rights League under the authoritarian Ben Ali regime was extremely difficult. Because the league was internationally recognised and had legal status, it was able to exist as an organisation but the regime and its police state apparatus cracked down on it.

“We held out,” said Trifi, detailing how the regime brought scores of court cases against the human rights league and police harassed, threatened and beat members in the street, others were arrested and tortured. “We were under surveillance. Our post was intercepted. For a long period, we simply received no post at all.”

More reaction from the winners, this time from Houcine Abassi, secretary general of the Tunisian General Labour Union, who called the prize a “tribute to martyrs of a democratic Tunisia”. He added: “This effort by our youth has allowed the country to turn the page on dictatorship.”

More on the quartet from my colleague, Chris Stephen.

The quartet is seen here as having stepped in to save Tunisia’s fledgling democracy from collapse two years ago, by crafting a “road-map” that broke political deadlock between a governing coalition led by Islamist Ennahda party and prominent then-opposition party Nidaa Tounes.

This road map eased the political impasse, clearing the way for the country to establish its first democratic constitution and hold fresh elections late last year.

Supporters say the broad-based membership of the quartet, spanning unions, business leaders, lawyers and rights activists, entrenched democracy in Tunisia.

Among the so-called Arab Spring states, only Tunisia has kept its democratic aspirations alive, with war blighting Libya, Syria and Yemen while Egypt saw its elected Muslim Brotherhood government deposed by the army in a popular coup in 2013.

While Tunisia’s democratic system flourishes, its economy remains in the doldrums, made worse by the massacre of 38 tourists in Sousse in June which has seen the tourist industry implode, while security forces are battling an increasing presence of Islamic State fighters.

Tunisians are likely to see the Nobel award as a powerful image boost, and will be hoping the international community follows through with aid and support for its troubled economy.

The Nobel organisation has chatted to Ouided Bouchamaoui, president of Tunisia’s Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts, one of the members of the quartet.

“We are very gald to have this prize,” she says. “It means a lot of things. First, the Tunisian experience is very important – we succeed with dialogue, together... We did what others failed.”

More congratulations.

Angela Merkel isn’t upset at not winning. Her official spokesman has said she thought the choice of the national dialogue quartet was “an excellent decision”.

Steffen Seibert said the prize was“the deserved reward for working on democracy, for sticking to the idea that a people that has shaken off dictatorship deserves something better than a new dictatorship.”

This was not, he insisted, just relief from Merkel lest a Nobel prize refocus attention on her refugee policy:

No. You are hearing happiness about a very good decision ..., great respect for the achievement of the prizewinners, and the rest is speculation that only you engaged in, and not us.

The ever-useful Nobel Prize Twitter feed has pointed me to this comprehensive background article on the Tunisian national dialogue quartet and the work it has done. It was produced by the Carnegie peace centre.

This was the response of Tunisia’s moderate Islamic political party.

Chris Stephen has this reaction:

Anouar Moalla, spokesman for Tunisia’s pioneering Truth and Dignity commission, now investigating the former dictatorship of Zine Abidine Ben Ali, deposed in the country’s Arab Spring revolution, said: “It (the Nobel announcement) gives us a lot of hope, this is something unbelievable.”

More explanation of the reasons for the choice from the chair of the committee, as she explains how the quartet’s aims coincide with Alfred Nobel’s talk in his will of peace congresses. You can read the full will here, but this is what he had to say about the peace prize:

... [T]he person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.

For all the good words about Tunisia’s efforts at peace, it’s necessary to note that the country has seen two very high profile attacks this year by Islamist gunmen which targeted foreign tourists.

In March, 22 people, mainly European tourists, died when gunmen attacked the Bardo museum in Tunis. In June, 38 people, 30 of them British, were killed in an attack on the beach resort of Sousse.

Earlier I mentioned that my colleague, John Hooper, was in a packed press room at the Vatican, in case Pope Francis did win. Well, he didn’t.

If you’ve not seen it, here is our initial news story on the 2015 peace prize.

More explanation from the chair of the committee. Here, Kaci Kullmann Five explains the background to the quartet, and why they were worthy winners. The committee, she added later, “totally agreed” on the decision.

More congratulations, this time from a fellow Nobel peace laureate from the Arab world.

An image showing the prize ceremony.

First reaction from one of the winners, via Associated Press:

A Tunisian union leader who played a key role in democracy-building that won the Nobel Peace Prize says he’s “overwhelmed” by the gesture.

Houcine Abassi, secretary general of the UGTT union, told the Associated Press on Friday, “It’s a prize that crowns more than two years of efforts deployed by the quartet when the country was in danger on all fronts.”

“I am happy,” he said, adding that the quartet members weren’t expecting the prize.

He described how the UGTT, a human rights group, a trade group and a lawyers group joined together to try to “bring the country out of crisis”.

The congratulations are beginning to come in. This seems likely to be one of those Nobel peace prizes which will not spark massive controversy, and indeed could refocus welcome attention on less celebrated efforts, rather than – as with Merkel, the Pope, Kerry etc – honour the already much-discussed.

A question in English, asking if the choice is, indeed, a message to other Arab nations. Kaci Kullmann Five replies:

We hope it will inspire people to see that it is possible to work together, that Islamic and secular political movements have managed to do so with the help of civil society in Tunisia, and that this is in the best interests of everybody living in the country.

She is then asked about Merkel’s fate as the most-tipped winner, but stresses she cannot talk about any other nominees.

And the ceremony is over.

I was completely wrong in my last-minute tip that Denis Mukwege would win. However, I will claim the credit for my earlier, much safer prediction that no one can really predict who will get it.

A point of order I should stress from the announcement: the prize goes to the quartet as an entity, not its individual member organisations, the Tunisian General Labour Union; the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts; the Tunisian Human Rights League; and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers.

There are currently some questions and answers in Norwegian, being taken by the announcer of the award and chair of the Nobel peace committee, businesswoman Kaci Kullmann Five whose name, like that of the Tunisian national dialogue quartet, sounds to English ears a bit like that of a jazz group.

This could arguably be seen as the key element of the citation:

More than anything, the prize is intended as an encouragement to the Tunisian people, who despite major challenges have laid the groundwork for a national fraternity which the Committee hopes will serve as an example to be followed by other countries.

Amid the chaos of Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, and the knock-on effect of the worst migrant crisis in Europe since World War II, the committee has chosen to honour a country which has taken a different route, in the hope it can be a beacon to others.

If you missed the big moment, here it is again.

Here is the full citation from the Nobel committee,as just read to us:

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2015 is to be awarded to the Tunisian national dialogue quartet for its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia in the wake of the Jasmine Revolution of 2011. The quartet was formed in the summer of 2013 when the democratisation process was in danger of collapsing as a result of political assassinations and widespread social unrest. It established an alternative, peaceful political process at a time when the country was on the brink of civil war. It was thus instrumental in enabling Tunisia, in the space of a few years, to establish a constitutional system of government guaranteeing fundamental rights for the entire population, irrespective of gender, political conviction or religious belief.

The national dialogue quartet has comprised four key organisations in Tunisian civil society: the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT, Union Générale Tunisienne du Travail), the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts (UTICA, Union Tunisienne de l’Industrie, du Commerce et de l’Artisanat), the Tunisian Human Rights League (LTDH, La Ligue Tunisienne pour la Défense des Droits de l’Homme), and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers (Ordre National des Avocats de Tunisie). These organizations represent different sectors and values in Tunisian society: working life and welfare, principles of the rule of law and human rights. On this basis, the quartet exercised its role as a mediator and driving force to advance peaceful democratic development in Tunisia with great moral authority. The Nobel Peace Prize for 2015 is awarded to this quartet, not to the four individual organizations as such.

The Arab Spring originated in Tunisia in 2010-2011, but quickly spread to a number of countries in North Africa and the Middle East. In many of these countries, the struggle for democracy and fundamental rights has come to a standstill or suffered setbacks. Tunisia, however, has seen a democratic transition based on a vibrant civil society with demands for respect for basic human rights.

An essential factor for the culmination of the revolution in Tunisia in peaceful, democratic elections last autumn was the effort made by the quartet to support the work of the constituent assembly and to secure approval of the constitutional process among the Tunisian population at large. The quartet paved the way for a peaceful dialogue between the citizens, the political parties and the authorities and helped to find consensus-based solutions to a wide range of challenges across political and religious divides. The broad-based national dialogue that the quartet succeeded in establishing countered the spread of violence in Tunisia and its function is therefore comparable to that of the peace congresses to which Alfred Nobel refers in his will.

The course that events have taken in Tunisia since the fall of the authoritarian Ben Ali regime in January 2011 is unique and remarkable for several reasons. Firstly, it shows that Islamist and secular political movements can work together to achieve significant results in the country’s best interests. The example of Tunisia thus underscores the value of dialogue and a sense of national belonging in a region marked by conflict. Secondly, the transition in Tunisia shows that civil society institutions and organizations can play a crucial role in a country’s democratization, and that such a process, even under difficult circumstances, can lead to free elections and the peaceful transfer of power. The national dialogue quartet must be given much of the credit for this achievement and for ensuring that the benefits of the Jasmine Revolution have not been lost.

Tunisia faces significant political, economic and security challenges. The Norwegian Nobel Committee hopes that this year’s prize will contribute towards safeguarding democracy in Tunisia and be an inspiration to all those who seek to promote peace and democracy in the Middle East, North Africa and the rest of the world. More than anything, the prize is intended as an encouragement to the Tunisian people, who despite major challenges have laid the groundwork for a national fraternity which the Committee hopes will serve as an example to be followed by other countries.

Announcing the award the committee says the quartet is honoured for its work in helping ensure Tunisia’s post-Arab Spring direction was broadly peaceful and democratic. It is directly comparable to the peace conferences mentioned by Alfred Nobel in his will, they add.

I did say the committee likes peace deals.

Here it is, confirmed. So, everyone’s predictions were wrong.

Here come the committee members, about to enter the journalist-filled room. Nearly time now.

A last-minute prediction, you say? Well, if pushed I’ll go for Denis Mukwege. He has been tipped several times before. Merkel, the Pope or Kerry/Zarif just seem too contentious. But I might well be proved wrong very, very soon.

Ten minutes to go. Judging from the live video feed above, all the reporters in Oslo are still milling about, chatting. It’s time they took their seats if we’re to not be late.

There’s a sense of expectation in the Vatican, writes my colleague John Hooper:

If the density of waiting journalists per square metre is anything to go by, Francis is a shoe-in. I’m in the Vatican’s press room, and it is packed. Not a seat to be had anywhere as correspondents accredited to the Holy See wait for the result.

One set of possible prize-winners we have not as yet mentioned: Colombia’s president, Juan Manuel Santos and rebel leader Rodrigo Londono aka Timoleón Jiménez, leader of the Farc rebel group, who brokered the country’s peace deal. As I mentioned below, the Nobel committee does love peace deals.

Further to the item below, here’s a handy graphic as to how the prize-winner is selected.

It’s worth noting that if Angela Merkel does win – and again I stress, just because she’s the bookies’ favourite does not mean it will be so – she will not be the first serving German chancellor to take the peace prize. In 1971, Willy Brandt was honoured for his efforts of rapprochement to the countries of the Soviet bloc.

How many people were nominated this year? In all, 273, comprising 205 people and 68 organisations. The Nobel Prize organisation has a page explaining how this all works – for example, not everyone can submit a nomination.

An initial shortlist (which is not made public) is whittled down by May, and then revised in the summer before the committee makes its choice.

So what can history tell us about who might win? To begin with, the auguries are mixed for Pope Francis. In the post-war era you could argue that only one overtly religious figure has claimed the peace prize, Mother Theresa in 1979. The Dalai Lama (1989), Desmond Tutu (1984) and Martin Luther King Jr (1964) also did, but more for their political than spiritual roles.

In contrast, the Nobel committee seems to love diplomatic peace efforts, which could be good news for Kerry and Zarif – see Kim Dae-jung (2000), John Hume and David Trimble (1998), Arafat, Peres and Rabin (1994), Mandela and de Klerk (1993) and so on.

So what’s the best way to do it? My colleague, Kate Lyons, has been looking at who tends to do best.

Here’s a reminder of the defining image from last year.

We’ve also asked Guardian readers for their thoughts (see link below). Aside from some of the people already mentioned, tips included Victor Ochen, the Ugandan social activist and Clive Stafford Smith, the British lawyer who has worked closely with many Guantánamo Bay prisoners.

Some pre-award facts and figures from the Nobel committee.