Europe's deep dependency on Russian gas could be slashed by a third if EU leaders place a higher priority on energy efficiency savings, according to the Institute for Public and Policy Research.
Europe imports about a third of its gas from Moscow and half of that flows through Ukraine. While only 15% of the UK's gas comes from Russia, six of the states closest to the Russian border are completely reliant on it, raising fears of a "gas crunch" this winter, if the crisis in Ukraine is not resolved.
On Monday the EU was preparing to impose new sanctions focused on the fundraising capabilities of Russian oil companies Rosneft and Transneft, and the petroleum unit of the gas company Gazprom, diplomatic sources said.
Russia's prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, had earlier warned that the country would respond "asymmetrically" to further sanctions, possibly by preventing airlines from flying through Russian airspace.
The greater concern in European capitals is that Russia could once again turn off the tap on its gas supplies to Ukraine, as it did in 2006 and 2009.
Some analysts say the proportion of European gas demand for heat and power met by Russia has actually risen since then, from 26% of supplies in 2010 to 34% in 2013.
"Recent events in Ukraine and the Middle East have served to highlight the vulnerability of our energy supplies and the political straitjacket that results from our over-dependence on fossil fuel imports from these volatile regions," the UK's former climate and energy security envoy, Rear Admiral Morisetti, said.
"The quickest and most effective form of energy security is to use less," he added. "EU leaders are currently discussing whether to mandate energy efficiency improvements of 30% by 2030; studies show that we can go to 40% without incurring economic penalties, and Ukraine shows that we must."
The EU is poised to announce three climate and energy targets for 2030 at a summit next month. Leaked documents suggest that these will include a legally mandated 40% greenhouse gas emissions cut, and two 30% goals for renewable energy market share, and improved energy efficiency.
The energy security argument for staunching power wastage has gained ground over climate change concerns in European capitals, as supply instability has increased and the continent's fossil fuel reserves have fallen.
Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency warned that the EU's annual fuel bill could reach $615bn by 2035. The agency expects European fossil fuel production to halve between 2010 and 2050, and predicts costly overhauls for ageing and high-polluting energy infrastructure.
The situation is particularly acute in Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania which the European commission judges 100% dependent on Russian gas. By contrast, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Romania and the UK source around 20% or less of their supplies from Gazprom."The countries that are most dependent on Russian gas are also the least fuel-efficient, and improvements in energy efficiency could vastly reduce the scale of our dependency on Russia," said Joss Garman, a senior fellow at the IPPR. "European leaders should adopt a new, binding EU-wide target for energy efficiency of 35% by 2030. Britain should overcome its aversion to an energy efficiency target as part of its broader response to Russian aggression."
Russia is the EU's biggest fuel supplier, providing the bloc with 30% of its gas, 35% of its crude oil and 26% of its solid fuels, according to Eurostat.
