Whether or not Donald Trump wins re-election in November, Maryland’s governor, Larry Hogan, predicts the Republican party will finally do some soul searching.
That’s the core of the thinking behind Hogan, a popular two-term Republican governor in a reliably Democratic state, strongly floating the idea of running for president himself.
“A big part of what I’ve been focusing on for six years is a kind of a bigger tent message and avoiding the divisive rhetoric and avoiding the extremes of either party,” Hogan told the Guardian.
“That’s why I’ve been so successful as a Republican in one of the bluest states in the country and have had the ability to reach a lot of swing voters and constituencies that Republicans have had a [hard] time reaching.”
Hogan considered a White House run this year, but he would have had to beat a Republican president with an iron grip on the party. In 2024, however, Trump will not be a factor.
Hogan is not the only name being floated. The former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, Senators Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton, Governors Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis and Vice-President Mike Pence are all in the mix too.
But Hogan is the one most eager to highlight his disagreements with the president, openly admitting that Trump’s circle is “not very happy with me at the moment”.
As chairman of the bipartisan National Governors Association (NGA), he has issued worried statements about Trump’s handling of coronavirus relief funds. In general, he has criticized Trump’s response to the pandemic.
At the same time, he has checked the boxes any statewide politician does ahead of a White House run. He has visited early primary states. He has chaired the NGA. He has reached high approval levels in his state. And he has written a book, laying out his background and knocking the current president. Still Standing comes out on Tuesday. It details how Hogan thought about challenging Trump this year.
He does not hesitate to admit that he is open to running in 2024, which is usually as far as any potential candidate goes this far out from an election. But he does keep some distance from other anti-Trump Republicans, such as the increasingly prominent Lincoln Project.
Asked about the former Ohio governor John Kasich, a prominent member of the anti-Trump wing of the Republican party who is expected to participate in the Democratic national convention, Hogan demurred.
“I’ve got to continue to govern my state in the middle of a pandemic in the middle of the worst economic collapse in our lifetime and I’ve got a job as governor of Maryland until January of 2023,” he said.
“So I’m in a different place than John Kasich. I mean, I haven’t spoken to him about it so I don’t know what his position is. But he’s certainly a Republican who’s frustrated with the direction of the party.”
Hogan’s view is that if Trump wins, the GOP will try to take a more expansive approach to attracting voters. And if Trump loses, the GOP will try to take a more expansive approach to attracting voters.
Hogan points to the 2018 midterms, where the GOP lost governor’s mansions, state legislatures and the US House.
After the 2012 presidential election, the Republican National Committee drafted an autopsy that recommended roughly the same thing – tone down the inflammatory rhetoric, don’t demonize minority groups. Trump won in 2016 by using inflammatory rhetoric and warning about illegal migrants flooding American society, but Hogan maintains that the GOP will consider being more inclusive as 2024 draws near.
“Well,” he says, “I’m not a political pundit. I can just tell you what I’ve seen for me and I can tell you what ought to happen. But we’ll find out in about 100 days or so after the November election.
“It’ll be the start of a discussion about what’s going to happen between now and 2024. I’ll be one and maybe I’ll be the only one that’ll be arguing for a Republican party that’s going to be more inclusive and taking a harder look at trying to grow the party and be back to the way it used to be.”
It’s possible that a clash between Trump and Hogan is imminent. Trump has mentioned Baltimore as a city to which he plans to send federal law enforcement officers.
In Portland, Oregon, federal agents have only provoked more conflict between protesters seeking policing reform and law enforcement. Optimistically, Hogan says protests in Baltimore have been peaceful, so there will be no reason to send agents and if they do come, there will be no clashes.
“Well, there aren’t any issues in Baltimore,” he says. “We have some murder and crime issues but as far as protests I’m very proud of the people of Baltimore that people are protesting very peacefully.
“We’re probably better than any major city in America in terms of not having violence.”
