Early evening summary

Here is a verdict from a Guardian panel, with contributions from Miatta Fahnbulleh, Katy Balls, Alice Bell and Diane Skidmore.

And here’s our spring statement calculator, which shows what it all mean for your personal finances:

Updated

These charts from the OBR show how higher tax receipts, partly due to rising inflation, have given Rishi Sunak a fiscal windfall – which he’s largely banked, rather than spent.

What does the fiscal windfall and the #SpringStatement mean for borrowing vs Oct?

Plunges this year by £55bn
Slightly higher next year due to new support for households and higher debt interest costs
Reaches a 25-year low by 2026-27 pic.twitter.com/tydwQBzF1T

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) March 23, 2022

Our March 2022 public sector net borrowing forecast#SpringStatement pic.twitter.com/qwYh8ZXMya

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) March 23, 2022

Why have taxes performed so strongly this year?

Real output is as expected. Growth in the cash size of the economy too. But it has been much more tax-rich: higher-taxed wages make up more of national income; and more is being taxed at higher tax rates.https://t.co/nl5N0UkkfO pic.twitter.com/kVmA9t391V

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) March 23, 2022

Capital Economics’ Paul Dales says the chancellor appears to be holding some cash back until closer to the 2024 election for political reasons. That means underlying debt as a share of GDP is expected to be falling in 2024-25, hitting the government’s fiscal mandate.

But it would be better for the economy to use more of that firepower now, Dales adds:

What’s more, the chancellor showed where his political priorities lie by keeping back some funds to lower public borrowing and public debt further ahead.

The OBR said that he has £27.8bn (1% of GDP) headroom against his main fiscal mandate (that the underlying debt ratio is falling in three years’ time, ie in 2024/25) and £31.6bn (1.2% of GDP) of headroom against the supplementary fiscal rule (that the current budget is balanced in three years’ time, again in 2024/25).

That compares to £17.5bn and £25.1bn in the October budget. This implies the chancellor spent less than half of the improvement in the headroom and banked the rest.

Updated

What thinktanks are saying about spring statement

And here is a round-up of what is being said about the spring statement in the thinktank world.

From Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies

There are two paradoxes at the heart of today’s statement. The chancellor has managed to announce tax cuts without reducing the planned tax take from previous plans. And by saying nothing about spending, he is reducing the real-terms generosity of his plans for spending on public services. That’s what inflation does.

The cuts to income tax and National Insurance are effectively paid for by increasing revenues as a result of fiscal drag. The freezing of the income tax personal allowance and higher rate threshold turn out to be much bigger tax rises than first intended. As a result, almost all workers will be paying more tax on their earnings in 2025 than they would have been paying without this parliament’s reforms to income tax and NICs, despite the tax cutting measures announced today. And by keeping to previously announced cash plans for public spending Mr Sunak is being considerably less generous to public services than he intended when he set out his spending plans in the autumn ...

But perhaps what really stands out today is what was missing. In the face of what the OBR calls the biggest hit to household finances since comparable records began in 1956-57 he has done nothing more for those dependent on benefits, the very poorest, besides a small amount of extra cash for local authorities to dispense at their discretion. Their benefits will rise by just 3.1% for the coming financial year. Their cost of living could well rise by 10%.

There is more IFS reaction here.

From the Resolution Foundation

The foundation’s analysis shows that middle income households gain most as a share of income from this fresh package of support, which is worth around £420 in 2022-23. The average gain across the top half of the income distribution is £475, compared to a gain of just £136 for the poorest fifth of households.

The foundation notes that the package of immediate support is poorly targeted at those most likely to struggle with the rising cost of living, with only £1 in every £3 announced today going to the bottom half of the income distribution.

Once policies already announced but being introduced in 2022-23 are considered – including national insurance and income tax rises, along with support on energy bills – the gain for a typical household is £110. Significant tax rises mean households in the top half of the income distribution will be worse off by £169 on average as a result of all policy decisions coming into effect in 2022-23.

From Ian Mulheirn, head of policy at the Tony Blair Institute

This was a budget of two parts. A short-term question of what to do to help households facing a grim cost of living shock and a longer-term question about the size of the state.

On the first, the government flunked an opportunity to protect households on the lowest incomes who will now be braced for a vicious cost of living squeeze. Instead, the chancellor sought to spend a large amount of poorly targeted money subsidising fossil fuel consumption. Far better would have been to have uprated benefits to keep up with inflation. This could have both protected those in greatest need while underlining the increased urgency of getting our economy off fossil fuels.

The longer-term picture was more an exercise in political optics than fiscal largesse. The chancellor used a £13bn unexpected income tax windfall created by surging inflation to fund an income tax cut and a rise in National Insurance primary threshold of similar scale. That allows him deftly to reclaim his image as a tax cutting chancellor, despite having presided over the biggest increases in personal taxation for decades.

From the New Economics Foundation

Is that it?

Incredibly disappointing from Sunak today. By April, one-third of all households will be unable to afford life's essentials. But there was no real attempt to get to grips with the scale of the problem today. #SpringStatementhttps://t.co/3CormHRjFJ pic.twitter.com/eMuueaGmls

— NEF (@NEF) March 23, 2022

From Will Tanner, director of Onward

Only one mention of levelling up in the Chancellor's Spring Statement today, but several of the tax measures were regionally pretty progressive.

For example, fuel duty costs around 4x the share of disposable income in Yorkshire as does in London, because people drive far more. pic.twitter.com/T9vTEEjle1

— Will Tanner (@Will_Tanner) March 23, 2022

From Kemar Whyte, senior economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Despite pressure to drop this, the chancellor of exchequer has decided to go ahead with the health and social care levy announced last September. Not only will this place significant pressure on households at a time of high inflation, but also a substantial portion of the levy could be lost to slower growth. In addition, the move today to raise the national insurance contributions threshold by £3,000 to tackle the rising cost of living across the UK will reduce how much the levy raises, therefore raising uncertainty around the NHS budget

The full NIESR response is here.

From Ryan Shorthouse, chief executive of Bright Blue

This is the confused chancellor. He is desperate to burnish his Hayekian credentials to his colleagues, but he has been consistently Keynesian in his response to two major crises during his short tenure, using a mixture of public spending and now tax cuts to stimulate the economy through troubled times. Public debt, tax levels and inflation will remain historically very high for the foreseeable future, much higher than what fiscally hawkish economists would advise.

The fairest way of helping households struggling with a range of costs, especially fuel and energy, is through broad subsidies such as universal credit or broad taxes such as VAT, National insurance or Income Tax. The chancellor should be applauded for introducing the most targeted tax cut he could: increasing the starting salary threshold for employees and the self-employed paying National Insurance and to such an extent it will be aligned with the threshold for Income Tax, a policy which Bright Blue has long called for.

From Carys Roberts, IPPR executive director

We’re going into the biggest incomes squeeze in a generation and yet the chancellor hasn’t offered the help that many households need.

His plan is woefully out of touch with the reality facing millions of families, who face being pulled into poverty and debt. To prevent the cost of living crisis becoming a living standards catastrophe, the chancellor needed to find ways to get targeted support to those with the greatest need - but he has sadly failed to ‘do what it takes’.

The full IPPR response is here.

From Matthew Lawrence, director of Common Wealth

The energy crisis is set to deepen. The OBR have forecast energy bills will rise by another £830 a year in October, with an average household increasing to an eye-watering £2,801 a year. This is a tsunami heading toward ordinary people and today’s announcements were completely inadequate to the scale of the hit.

This spring statement was a missed an opportunity to follow in the footsteps of past governments and introduce a windfall tax on Big Oil to protect households from rising energy prices. As our research shows the market capitalisation and profit margins of companies operating in the North Sea have seen an extraordinary rise.

Larry Elliott: Sunak leaves the most vulnerable to feel the squeeze

The year ahead will be brutal for millions of the most vulnerable households, our economics editor, Larry Elliott, warns.

That means Rishi Sunak will come under pressure to use the money he is squirrelling away from pre-election sweeteners in 2024 to help households and small businesses this year. There could be more mini-budgets to come....

Larry writes:

Tory backbenchers cheered lustily when Sunak pulled his rabbit out of the hat – a 1p income tax cut designed to come into force in April 2024, a month before the date being pencilled in for the next general election. But budgets – and mini-budgets – that look good on the day often look less good in the weeks that follow. And there is every risk the chancellor’s latest offering will conform to this pattern.

For a start, Sunak’s package was a lot more modest than he tried to make it sound. The package of new measures announced will provide a £9bn stimulus to the economy – or about 0.4% of the economy’s annual output.

But as Paul Dales of Capital Economics pointed out: that will still leave households facing a £20bn hit to their real disposable incomes from rising food, fuel and utilities prices over the next couple of years. Living standards, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), are still going to be cut by more than 2% this year.

For the most vulnerable – those not working and reliant on state benefits – the squeeze will be even more severe. That’s because they won’t benefit from the £3,000 increase to the threshold for national insurance contributions – a move that mainly helps better off households – but will be clobbered by rising inflation. As the Resolution Foundation thinktank pointed out, of every £3 of new help provided by the chancellor, £2 will go to people in the top half of the income distribution.

Two-thirds of voters say they will not benefit much or at all from Sunak's £14bn tax cuts, poll suggests

Rishi Sunak today announced a fuel duty cut that will cost the Treasury £2.4bn in the next financial year and a rise in the national insurance threshold (effectively a tax cut) that will cost the Treasury £6.2bn next year. He also promised an income tax cut before the next election worth £5.3bn.

But, judging by a snap YouGov poll just out, it may be the case that never in budget history has so much been spent by a chancellor for so little political effect. The poll suggests that two-thirds of voters believe that the changes will affect them either not very much (42%) or not at all (24%).

SNAP POLL: % of Britons who think the policies announced in the spring statement will benefit people like them...

A great deal: 2%
A fair amount: 11%
Not very much: 42%
Not at all: 24%
Don't know: 20%https://t.co/2bk6UUvuIM pic.twitter.com/v0pZbV1jNY

— YouGov (@YouGov) March 23, 2022

Given that respondents were specifically asked about fuel duty, national insurance and income - measures that by themselves will affect a majority of people - you could argue that this just shows how, in polling, people sometimes just give the wrong answer.

But an alternative - and probably better - view is that people aren’t daft, that they make judgments in the round, and not on specifics, and that everyone knows that the “giveways” announced today won’t compensate for the “takeaways” already banked by the chancellor. This chart from the OBR report (which we have used already) may highlight this best.

This chart probably explains another YouGov finding; 69% of people think Sunak has not done enough to help people with the cost of living, the poll suggests.

SNAP POLL: did the spring statement do enough to help people with the increased cost of living?

Has done enough: 6%
Has not done enough: 69%
Don't know: 25%https://t.co/c3WntRd35D pic.twitter.com/nSRoyyqhA8

— YouGov (@YouGov) March 23, 2022

Updated

Business groups criticise Chancellor's "sticking-plaster measures"

Business groups have criticised Rishi Sunak for not providing more support in the spring statement to help companies handle inflationary pressures.

Stephen Phipson, chief executive of manufacturers’ group Make UK, said that “eye watering cost increases” are pushing some factories towards a tipping point.

The lack of action on energy costs for business is “especially hard to fathom”, Phipson warns.

He accusing Sunak of promising ‘jam tomorrow’, and not laying out a long-term economic vision based on enterprise, growth and innovation.

“It has been two years to the day since lockdown began and there is very little in today’s statement to support a sector that kept working throughout the pandemic, ensuring that there was food on the shelves, PPE for our NHS and medicines for the people who needed them.

The promise of jam tomorrow with consultations through the summer and action in the Autumn will also be of little comfort for many who would have liked to have seen action and support immediately”.

“We have also yet to see a long-term economic vision that has enterprise, growth and innovation at its heart. Without adding a turbocharger for growth the Government risks leaving the economy spluttering along as a two stroke.”

John Dickie, chief executive of campaign group London First, said Sunak only offered ‘sticking plaster’ measures today:

“Consumers and businesses will be disappointed to see the Chancellor put forward sticking-plaster measures that will do little to stem the pain of the rising cost of living.

“London businesses will welcome support for training and upskilling staff, as well as the commitment to improve the operation of the Apprenticeship Levy, as there are real gains to be made, not least in increasing transfers to the supply chain.

“However, the return to 20% VAT is a missed opportunity to support recovery and kicking support for research and development down the road feels short-sighted. Businesses in the capital stand ready to work with the Government to help solve the UK’s productivity challenge, but many need continued support to be able to get back on track.”

Bosses will be disappointed that Sunak didn’t heeed calls to reverse the rise in National Insurance rates next month on employee and employer contributions.

Chris Barlow, partner at accountancy group MHA, believes the Chancellor failed to address the needs of manufacturing businesses in the wake of increasing inflation, energy prices and taxes:

“While Rishi Sunak would like to be known as a Chancellor who reduces taxes, the Spring Statement was a missed opportunity to help manufacturing businesses facing an onslaught of increases ranging from inflation to tax rises. Some of the reliefs and tax cuts announced today sounded impressive but pale into insignificance when you consider the barrage of tax increases on the way.

“The increase in the National Insurance (NI) threshold will provide some relief but scrapping the NI increase of 1.25% was the manufacturing industry’s big ask and this will go ahead despite pressure by businesses to postpone it. The increase to the Employment Allowance is welcome, but will not go far enough to offset other increases, including rises in prices, the planned Corporation Tax rise (in April 2023) and the end of capital allowance reliefs in April 2023.

Federation of Small Businesses National Chair Martin McTague, was more positive, calling today’s Statement “a good starting point” that would give breathing space:

“We are very pleased to see the Chancellor adopting our top ask for this Spring Statement: uprating the Employment Allowance to help small employers with national insurance costs.

We originally put forward the Employment Allowance as a targeted measure to help small firms, and it has now been expanded three times since its creation.

“Together with a cut to fuel duty, these measures will provide crucial breathing space for our embattled small employers.

Scotland’s finance secretary, Kate Forbes, has said that Rishi Sunak’s spring statement has “failed to address the biggest challenges facing households today”.

Forbes said that Scottish ministers had repeatedly called for the UK government to take further action on soaring energy bills and the cost of living crisis - including a reduction in VAT on household energy bills and support for those on low incomes.

But the Scottish Secretary, Alister Jack, insisted there would be £45m coming to the Scottish government as a result of the statement.

Forbes said:

We are doing all we can to tackle the cost of living crisis - including doubling the Scottish child payment from £10 per week per eligible child to £20 next month.

The UK government should have followed our lead and matched the 6% uprate on social security benefits which the Scottish government is adding to eight of the benefits we deliver.

Sunak pledged to cut the lowest rate of income tax, from 20% to 19% in 2024. Forbes pointed out that in Scotland, where different income tax bands apply, 19% is already the starter rate “in line with our commitment to progressive taxation, which makes Scotland the fairest taxed part of the UK”. [the starter rate applies to income between £12,571 to £14,667 this financial year]

The Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, said the announcement “does not touch the sides”.

Rishi Sunak could have taken steps to ease this cost of living crisis. To end the choice between heating and eating for those making impossible choices. He failed.

Updated

Here is some comment on the spring statement from journalists.

From Chris Giles, the FT’s economics editor

**** HOW THE SPRING STATEMENT ADDS UP***

tl:dr -

Sunak's taking a stealthy public finances windfall from people paying more tax - banking a bit, giving a bit back in highly visible tax cuts - and want people to thank him...

Longer version followshttps://t.co/djIKyLXker

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) March 23, 2022

First - there is minimal help with the cost of living crisis. If you're poor, a school, a hospital, the army you have to deal with it in pretty much your existing budgets.

Hence the drop in household disposable incomes - they don't return to pre-andemic levels until late 2024 pic.twitter.com/wNSyKPqNg7

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) March 23, 2022

But HM Treasury is a huge beneficiary of higher inflation. It is bleating a lot about higher debt servicing costs, but these are dwarfed by higher tax revenues (ie people will be paying more tax) pic.twitter.com/UDpeiINMs8

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) March 23, 2022

From Faisal Islam, the BBC’s economics editor

Gobsmacking inflation chart from OBR projection… 8.7% inflation at the end of the year in fact highest for 40 years… double the forecast from budget 5 months back, pic.twitter.com/6ApNQqTp8F

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) March 23, 2022

From a blog by Robert Peston, the ITV political editor

As the OBR says: ‘Higher inflation has already eroded the real value of the department budgets set in cash terms in October’s Spending Review by between £5bn and £17bn, while many departments are still coping with pandemic-related backlogs.’

In other words, hospitals and schools should brace to reduce their ambitions to catch up with treating sick people and correcting the schooling gaps caused by Covid-19. And, to add insult to injury, we haven’t yet seen the peak of the inflationary damage to public service resources.

Rishi Sunak says he has to be cautious in not spending more because rising inflation is massively increasing the cost of servicing the government’s near record debts. This bill comes through what it has to pay on its inflation-proofed or indexed borrowings, and because the Bank of England is putting up interest rates. But today Sunak – not by explicit policy but by refusing to offset the damage of inflation – is returning the UK to austerity. Which is completely counter to everything Boris Johnson claims to want or to represent.

If the relationship between him and the Chancellor was bad before the Spring Statement, I would now expect the rift to become almost irreparable.

From Fraser Nelson, the Spectator editor

Before Sunak's budget, taxes were heading to a 71-year high. Now, it's a 77-year high.

Join The Spectator team in Westminster this evening as we ask whether this was - after all - a tax-cutting budget.

(starts 7.30pm, bar opens 6pm) https://t.co/OoEIqEHWLy

— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) March 23, 2022

Speaking of events...a Guardian Newsroom online panel will examine the living crisis next month, with our executive editor (Opinion), Hugh Muir, economic correspondent, Richard Partington and MP for Oxford East, Anneliese Dodds.

Updated

The Telegraph’s Simon Johnson has posted this chart, from the Chartered Institute of Taxation, showing how much more people in Scotland would be paying in income tax, at different salary bands, assuming the Scottish government does not match the proposed 1p income tax cut that Rishi Sunak has pencilled in for 2024.

Those clever people at the Chartered Institute of Taxation have worked out what the difference in income tax bills would be between Scotland and England after the penny cut in basic rate south of the Border. Although cut taking place in 2024, figures use 2022/3 bands and rates pic.twitter.com/39pvaonigC

— Simon Johnson (@simon_telegraph) March 23, 2022

As the BBC’s business editor, Simon Jack, points out, there is still some uncertainty as to whether this tax cut will ever materialise.

Some debate about whether the 1p future cut in income tax was a "rabbit out of the hat" or whether it is still in the hat and needs to be coaxed out sometime in the next 2 years.

— Simon Jack (@BBCSimonJack) March 23, 2022

Here’s a breakdown of how Rishi Sunak’s changes on national insurance, fuel duty and income tax will affect consumers - and how benefit payments aren’t keeping up with inflation:

The Treasury has been retweeting from its Twitter account some of the positive reaction to the spring statement. Here is a sample.

We are very pleased by @RishiSunak announcements today to encourage business investment in the long term. #SpringStatement2022 pic.twitter.com/vNqfFf79FV

— CBI (@CBItweets) March 23, 2022

The decision to cut fuel duty in today’s Spring Statement will help logistics businesses to afford to keep supplying the nation with the goods it needs in the face of increasing fuel prices and other inflationary pressures, as Elizabeth de Jong, Director of Policy comments: pic.twitter.com/NYalegS20k

— Logistics UK (@LogisticsUKNews) March 23, 2022

Responding to the chancellor’s Spring Statement, David Postings, chief executive of UK Finance, said: “This is a pragmatic plan from the chancellor to help support the country through these challenging times."

Full response here > https://t.co/J6J1jane2l pic.twitter.com/aQ0dZK7h2y

— UK Finance (@UKFtweets) March 23, 2022

In response to @RishiSunak Spring statement @MichOvens Founder of SBB “Moves in today’s Spring Statement to increase the employment allowance, reduce fuel duty and raise the NI threshold are welcome and will go some way to help businesses deal with rising costs.” pic.twitter.com/fP7VQzAx7h

— Small Business Britain (@britainsmallbiz) March 23, 2022

Guardian Newsroom: The cost of living crisis

Next month the Guardian is hosting a livestreamed event on the cost of living crisis with journalists Hugh Muir and Richard Partington and the Labour MP Anneliese Dodds. They will be discussing the crisis and its impact on the poorest households.

It is on Thursday 14 April at 8pm BST and you can book tickets here.

Updated

The UK labour force is now expected to be 400,000 smaller in five years time than expected before the pandemic.

Nearly half of this decline is due to a smaller population, due to lower net inward migration, the OBR says.

But 210,00 is due to people leaving the labour force: with more early retirements and a rise in long-term sickness, leading to a higher inactivity rate among those of working age.

Updated

OBR says latest evidence has not led it to change forecast that Brexit will reduce trade by 15%

The Office for Budget Responsibility says in its report that the latest evidence has not led it to change is assumption that Brexit will lead to a 15% drop in trade, with productivity ending up after 15 years 4% lower than it otherwise would have been. It says:

Our forecast continues to assume that leaving the EU will result in the UK’s total imports and exports being 15% lower than had the UK remained a member state. This fall in the trade intensity of UK output is likely to reduce the level of potential productivity, though the size of this effect is uncertain; we assume productivity is ultimately 4% lower after a 15-year period.

This chart shows that, while all economies saw trade drop during the pandemic, in other countries it has bounced back much more than it has in the UK.

The OBR also says none of the government’s free trade deals to date have been significant enough to have a “material impact” on its forecast. It says:

The government’s own estimate of the economic impact of the free-trade agreement with Australia, the first to be concluded with a country that does not have a similar arrangement with the EU, is that it would raise total UK exports by 0.4%, imports by 0.4% and the level of GDP by only 0.1% over 15 years.

Updated

School leaders say the chancellor’s spring statement failed to address the financial pressures facing schools and teachers.

“Schools are reporting huge increases in their energy bills and the government expects them to fund pay awards out of these stretched budgets too,” said Geoff Barton, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders.

We are gravely concerned that [schools] are facing a fresh funding crisis. This is compounded by the inadequacy of the proposed pay award for many staff which comes after a pay freeze and is likely to worsen retention rates.

Dr Patrick Roach, the general secretary of the NASUWT teachers’ union, said latest research had shown that more than one in five teachers are “very worried” about their finances, with some using food banks and 12% taking a second job.

While the announcements about fuel duty and national insurance will offer some modest assistance, our members are still facing a deepening crisis in making ends meet and there was little in today’s statement that will offer them much comfort or reassurance.

While the announcements on fuel duty & NI will offer some modest assistance, our members are still facing a deepening crisis in making ends meet & there was little in the #SpringStatement that will offer them much comfort or reassurance. https://t.co/TUiolnClub#CostOfLiving

— NASUWT (@NASUWT) March 23, 2022

There was similar dismay in the early years sector. Neil Leitch, the CEO of the Early Years Alliance, said:

Today’s spring statement was an opportunity for the government to address the early years funding crisis but, yet again, it has failed to do so.

Ultimately it is parents and providers who will pay the price.

Updated

Bulb Energy bailout to cost taxpayer more than £2bn, OBR reveals

Last year the government announced a bailout for Bulb Energy as it was going into administration. It received help, while other energy companies were allowed to go bust, because of its large, 1.6m customer base, and the £1.7bn bailout was described as a loan.

But the OBR report today says this bailout will cost the taxpayer more than £2bn. It says:

The government’s bailout of Bulb Energy incurs a £1.2bn cost in 2021-22 and a further £1bn in 2022-23, to cover the company’s operating losses. Given the volatility in global energy markets, there remains uncertainty around the final cost.

Ed Miliband, the shadow secretary of state for climate and net zero, claims this is a direct result of the government’s failure to regulate the energy market properly.

Buried in today's documents is that the cost of bailing out Bulb Energy will be £1.2bn in 2021-22 and a further £1bn in 2022-3. Over £2 billion and counting as a direct consequence of the Conservatives' failure to regulate our energy system for over a decade. pic.twitter.com/e6UEDJU9rn

— Ed Miliband (@Ed_Miliband) March 23, 2022

Economist Kallum Picking of Berenberg bank says we shouldn’t be fooled - the UK tax burden is going up.

In contrast to his claims that he is lowering the UK tax burden, UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak today unveiled a conservative fiscal plan that will raise the UK tax burden to its highest level since 1949 (see 2.47pm’s graph).

Based on his latest plans, which include some modest measures to buffer households against rising energy prices as well as tax cuts, which barely offset the sizeable tax windfall coming from forecast revision, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that tax revenues will increase as a percentage of GDP to 36.2% by 2025 from 33.0% in 2019.

A tax cutting chancellor? The OBR estimates Rishi Sunak, even after today's spring statement measures, will increase the UK tax burden to the highest level since the late 1940s.

The 1p cut to income tax more than outweighed by freezing income tax thresholds. pic.twitter.com/os7Vf4eAr1

— Richard Partington (@RJPartington) March 23, 2022

The chancellor has also created headroom to ease aggressively when the next downturn comes, Pickering adds, by banking some of the tax windfall from improved OBR forecasts, and the change in student loan repayments.

That could also allow a ‘modest’ pre-election giveaway in two years’ time, Pickering adds:

If the UK returns to solid growth once the dual shock of Putin’s war and surging inflation (which is worsened by, but preceded the war) has faded, we would expect the chancellor to announce modest tax cuts just before the next general election scheduled for May 2024.

Updated

Income tax threshold freeze will create almost 3m more taxpayers, says OBR

Almost 3 million more people are going to be brought into paying income because the income tax threshold has been frozen, the Office for Budget Responsibility says. And this number is higher than it would have been because of rising inflation. It explains:

The strong growth in higher- and additional-rate taxpayers between 2019-20 and 2021-22 is set to be compounded by the four-year freeze on income tax thresholds that starts in April 2022. This will further increase the number of new taxpayers and higher-rate taxpayers.

Upward revisions to our CPI inflation forecasts since we initially costed the threshold freeze in the March 2021 budget have increased our estimate of the number of new income taxpayers created by the measure from 1.3 to 2.8 million by 2025-26 and the number of new higher-rate taxpayers (including all income, not just that paid via PAYE) from 1.0 to 2.0 million over the same period.

That would represent 8.3% more income taxpayers than would otherwise have been the case, and 42% more higher-rate taxpayers (from 33.4 to 36.1 million and 4.8 to 6.8 million respectively).

This phenomenon - people being pulled into a tax band because of their pay going up faster than the threshold - is called fiscal drag.

The OBR also says that by 2024-25 tax receipts will be £68.2bn higher than its pre-pandemic forecast - and that £43.8bn of that is due to tax rises.

Highlighting these figures in a news release, Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, said:

This tax bombshell will send a shiver down the spine of families who are drowning in spiralling bills.

Rishi Sunak is trying to swindle the British public by burying the true cost of his disgraceful tax hikes. He has insulted millions of squeezed families across the country by thinking he can hide this in the small print. Rishi Sunak is following Boris Johnson’s lead by not being up front and honest with the country.

Value of benefits to fall by 5% in real terms in 2022-23 because of inflation, says OBR

Low-income families and pensioners face a painful cost of living squeeze this year, after Rishi Sunak resisted calls to uprate benefits in line with the current surge in inflation.

Both Universal Credit payments and the state pension are rising by 3.1% in April, in line with last September’s CPI inflation figure.

The surge in inflation since, towards 8% later this year, meant the Treasury was urged to lift benefits by more than just 3.1%.

It would have been the best way of targeting help to low-income households, who are most vulnerable to the cost of living crisis, Resolution Foundation analysis showed.

Without it, benefits will fall by almost 5% in real terms in the coming financial year, the Office for Budget Responsibility says.

Dr Silvia Galandini, Oxfam Domestic Poverty Lead warns that more people risk falling into poverty:

“With the cost of living soaring, today’s announcements will do little to help millions of low-income families who were looking to the Chancellor for urgent support.

By only increasing benefits to 3.1% - half the rate of inflation - he has effectively cut benefits twice now in six months*, risking an additional 400,000 people being pulled into poverty.

[* - the first cut was ending the £20/week increase in universal credit last autumn].

Jamie Jenkins, director of policy and external affairs at Royal London, points out that state pensioners would be receiving a rise over 8%, if the government hasn’t dropped the triple-lock link to earnings last autumn when wages were rebounding after pandemic disruption.

“It’s not just workers that will see an additional income hit this year. Those receiving their state pension, the bedrock of a retirement income for many, will also be worse off as a result of suspension in the triple lock, the formula that sets the yearly state pension rise.

“From next month pensioners will receive an increase of 3.1% in their state pension, instead of the 8.3% they would have received if the earnings component hadn’t been stripped out, a blow for older people already spending a higher percentage of their income on food and fuel.

Economist Richard Ramsey flags that benefits next year should catch up, as inflation is likely to be high this September. But that’s no help over the next 12 months:

The biggest surprise is the failure to increase the planned uprating of welfare benefits beyond the planned 3.1% next month. So those solely reliant on welfare benefits will experience a significant cut in real terms. Those who work will benefit from NICs changes.

— Richard Ramsey (@Ramseconomics) March 23, 2022

Welfare benefits will experience a significant increase in April 2023. This is because the increase will be based on September 2022 CPI. It could be close to double-digits by then. But the challenge will be the severe cost of inflation squeeze between now and then.

— Richard Ramsey (@Ramseconomics) March 23, 2022

The OBR warns that this timelag will cut £12bn off the real value of benefits.

In the welfare system, lags in CPI uprating of benefits means they fall by almost 5% in real terms in 2022-23, reducing their real value by £12bn, and take up to 18 months to catch up fully with higher inflation.

It would have been so easy for the Chancellor to increase benefit uprating to match inflation, but instead we’re getting a 3.1% benefit uprating and the biggest fall in household incomes in decades https://t.co/glYwEIXUAY

— Lalitha Try (@LalithaTry) March 23, 2022

Updated

And here is some more party political reaction to the spring statement.

From Kate Forbes, the SNP Scottish government’s finance minister

Households and businesses are seeing soaring energy costs right now - that could plunge thousands into fuel poverty. There was nothing in the #SpringStatement to reduce energy bills today or uprate benefits. /1

— Kate Forbes MSP (@_KateForbes) March 23, 2022

The OBR reports we could see the largest fall in living standards since the 1950s, whilst soaring energy costs along could plunge 450k Scottish households into further fuel poverty. The level of need is stark - the interventions announced in the #SpringStatement are woeful. /2

— Kate Forbes MSP (@_KateForbes) March 23, 2022

What we needed was intervention on energy costs (remember energy is fully reserved to UKGov), uprating of benefits and additional cold weather payments - as a minimum. Changes to NICs are useful - but this is an issue of Chancellor’s own making. /3

— Kate Forbes MSP (@_KateForbes) March 23, 2022

From Christine Jardine, the Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson

Families were looking to the Chancellor to offer them hope, instead he is adding to their pain by refusing to scrap his unfair tax rises.

People seeing the biggest plunge in living standards in fifty years will see through the chancellor’s spin.

Rishi Sunak has failed to introduce a windfall tax on the super profits of oil and gas producers, which could have raised billions to help people with their energy bills. And he has refused to bring in an emergency cut to VAT, as Liberal Democrats have called for, which would put £600 back into the pockets of the average family.

From Sammy Wilson, the DUP Treasury spokeperson

It would be churlish not to accept that the chancellor has sought to deal with many of the issues that face working families today. But I believe that given the windfall in taxes which he has experienced that there could have been more done to help with fuel costs, energy bills, and other cost-of-living increases.

It’s significant that the chancellor cannot apply all of his taxes to Northern Ireland because of the Northern Ireland Protocol, it shows it needs to be dealt with.

From Ben Lake, the Plaid Cymru Treasury spokesperson

Today‘s statement finally acknowledges that families are facing a cost of living crisis, but it is disappointing the chancellor failed to bring forward measures to actually address the scale of the problem. The seriousness of the crisis called for a fundamental change of approach, not further tinkering around the edges a broken strategy.

Plaid Cymru have long called for targeted support for people and businesses who are struggling with fuel costs. A 5p cut to fuel duty, while welcome, will still leave people in rural areas struggling to shoulder the cost of essential journeys, whilst giving a subsidy to the Chelsea tractors that pollute the cities. A targeted approach would have been fairer for both the public and the planet.

From Caroline Lucas, the Green party MP

Negligent policy-light #SpringStatement

Reckless & incompetent at time of extraordinary need for Govt action - where’s sustainable housing, public transport, NHS & social care policy and vision? @RishiSunak ducking & weaving in wake of 12 years of Tory failure #SpringStatement

— Caroline Lucas (@CarolineLucas) March 23, 2022

Once again, there’s a #Climate shaped hole at heart of #SpringStatement - Chancellor didn’t even mention the word. Yet measures needed to tackle climate & cost of living crises are the same. So where was the mass home retrofit revolution that could cut both bills & emissions?

— Caroline Lucas (@CarolineLucas) March 23, 2022

This is from Nick Macpherson, a former Treasury permanent secretary, illustrating the “smoke and mirrors” quality of changes to the tax system - and why claims that taxes are being cut overall are best not taken seriously.

Time for an update. By 2024, the national insurance rate will have more than doubled from 5.75% to 13.25% since 1977. The basic rate of income tax rate will have fallen from 34% to 19%, and the overall tax take will have risen from 31.7% to 36.2% of national income. #gofigure https://t.co/Kp3ufY6DyO

— Nick Macpherson (@nickmacpherson2) March 23, 2022

Union leaders have criticised Rishi Sunak for “tinkering around the edges” of the cost-of-living crisis.

The Unite general secretary, Sharon Graham, said:

With inflation at its highest for 30 years, Rishi Sunak’s spring statement just tinkers around the edges of this shocking cost-of-living crisis. Workers will still be facing sleepless nights worrying about how to make ends meet, overwhelmed by rocketing prices.

His spring statement does nothing to tackle the corporate elite, the billionaires who stash their loot but sack UK workers by Zoom. Once again, ordinary working people bear the broadest burden while the super-rich get off scot-free.

Dr Mary Bousted, joint general secretary of the National Education Union, said:

If the government is serious about protecting living standards and building a strong economy, it must reverse the real-terms cuts to teacher pay. Instead, with RPI inflation reaching 8.2% and in the midst of the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, the government plans yet more real terms pay cuts for teachers.

The TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said:

In the midst of the biggest wages and bills crisis in living memory, Rishi Sunak’s spring statement has failed families who need help now. We did not get the urgent help with soaring bills that families need, and the rise in the national insurance threshold will mostly benefit better-off households.

The small print shows that pay packets are now expected to fall in value by £11 a week this year. After 12 years of Tory government, Britain needs a pay rise, but this chancellor has no plan to get wages rising and give working people long-term financial security.

Manuel Cortes, the general secretary of the TSSA transport union, said:

This government is fuelling - quite literally - a car-led recovery instead of promoting climate friendly solutions such as public transport.

We should be making public transport cheaper in the face of spiralling, out-of-control fuel prices. Other countries are cutting the cost of public transport or making it free for commuters, but this government has increased rail fares and is failing to encourage more people to take public transport.

Updated

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the tax burden - taxation as a proportion of GDP - is now forecast to rise to levels last seen when Clement Attlee was prime minister even faster than previously expected. It is now due to peak at 36.3% (on the national accounts taxes measure) in 2025-26.

The combined net effect of raising the NICs threshold (from July), increasing NICs contributions and freezing the income tax threshold in 2022-23, is that most workers will pay less tax. The crossover point for paying more tax on your earnings is a salary of around £32,000.... pic.twitter.com/cs2fm0ram1

— Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation) March 23, 2022

This chart from the Office for Budget Responsibility shows how real household disposable incomes per person are set for the largest fall in a single financial year since records began in 1956-57, down 2.2% in 2022-23.

The OBR has lifted its forecast for nominal earnings growth. Pay is expected to rise 5.3% this year, up from 3.9% forecast in October due to “tight labour market conditions” and as workers seek better-paid-jobs.

But wages will fall in real terms (after inflation) this year and next, meaning around five years of stagnation.

The OBR says:

Wage growth is not expected to fully compensate for higher inflation, much of which is externally driven, meaning that real wages fall in both 2022 and 2023.

Thereafter, earnings growth eases a little further, but inflation drops back more rapidly, resulting in a partial recovery in real wages in the final three years of the forecast. On a post-tax basis, real wages stagnate over much of the forecast period.

Updated

At a post-statement briefing a Treasury spokesman blamed inflation on the war in Ukraine and acknowledged that much of the help would not come until next year. He said:

The chancellor set out in his speech that obviously the costs of the war in Ukraine are going to have a domestic impact and he can’t fully protect people from all of those costs. But he’s set out a plan today that provides £22bn worth of support for households up and down the country next year as they grapple with some of these challenges.

Asked why there was little in the statement that would help those not working, earning too little to pay tax and pensioners, the spokesman pointed to the £500m increase in the household support fund administered by local councils for those most in need.

And here are some more lines from Rachel Reeves’s response to the spring statement in the Commons. Reeves accused the chancellor of living in “Sunakland”, an alternative reality. (See 1.30pm.) She said that, despite announcing tax cuts, overall Sunak was still putting up tax.

Despite the chancellor’s reluctant measures, the facts are that he is still taking money out of people’s purses and wallets with an increase in national insurance contributions.

The changes that he is making today beg the question, why did he embark on these changes in the first place, despite the warnings from the Labour party and from many many others?

She also said the national insurance increase remained a mistake.

The actual reality is that this chancellor’s failure to back a windfall tax and his stubborn desire to pursue a national insurance tax rise are the wrong choices.

In eight days, people’s energy bills will be rising by 54%, two weeks today the chancellor’s tax hike will start hitting working people and their employers.

His national insurance tax rise was a bad idea last September and he’s admitted it’s an even worse one today.

The chancellor is making an historic mistake. Today was the day to scrap the tax rise on jobs, today was the day to bring forward a windfall tax, today was the day for the chancellor to set out a plan to support British businesses.

Updated

Inflation could hit 40-year high of 8.7% in Q4, as energy bills surge again

Energy bills are set to rise around another 40% in October if wholesale energy prices remain as high as financial markets expect, the OBR warns.

That would push inflation to a 40-year high of 8.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The cost of living hasn’t been rising that fast since the second oil shock pushed inflation into double digits in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

The energy price cap is already rising 54% in April, meaning average bills would be £1,971 per year.

A 40% increase in October, when Ofgem next adjusts the cap, could add nearly £800 more to bills -- meaning more families would face the very painful choice between eating and heating.

The OBR also predicts inflation will average 4% in 2023 -- double the Bank of England’s target, before dropping back to 1.5% in 2024.

Second key forecast from the @OBR_UK (perhaps the most important of all): inflation.
7.4% this year (peaking at 8.7% in the coming months - the highest level for more than a generation).
Still double the @bankofengland target next year. pic.twitter.com/R3o0alx2ue

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) March 23, 2022

As Sky’s Ed Conway points out, the spring statement scorecard (on pages 27 and 28 of this document) shows that the biggest earner for the Treasury in the table is the amount it will gain from the changes to the student loan repayment rules. In 2022-23, the changes amount to a notional benefit of more than £11bn (mostly because more students are expected to repay loans under the new arrangements).

Single biggest line item in this Spring Statement is something that wasn’t even announced today: the change in student loans treatment.
In essence, students are paying a LOT more into the Exchequer.
This helps subsidise some of today’s giveaways.
🤔 pic.twitter.com/ZzkE4dpVh8

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) March 23, 2022

The changes did not receive as much attention as they probably deserved because they were announced by the government on 24 February – which was the day Russia invaded Ukraine.

This is probably just as well for the goverment. Its own equality impact assessment of the plans said that those who would lose out the most would be poorer graduates, as well as those from the north of England.

Updated

Rishi Sunak has undone just over a quarter of the overall personal tax rises he announced last year, the OBR points out.

Today’s changes reverse around a sixth of the overall net tax rises he has announced since becoming Chancellor.

3. Rishi Sunak has "undone" just over a quarter of the personal taxation rises he announced last year pic.twitter.com/KX4U7oYtZF

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) March 23, 2022

Rishi Sunak’s tax cuts and rebates on energy bills will only offset one-third of the historic blow to living standards faced by UK households, the OBR says:

The fiscal watchdog explains:

Despite higher inflation pushing up debt interest costs, borrowing is set to more than halve from its post-world war two high of £322bn (15.0% of GDP) in 2020-21 to £128bn (5.4% of GDP) in 2021-22, £55bn less than we forecast in October.

Borrowing in 2022-23 is then £16bn higher than we forecast in October, at £99bn (3.9% of GDP). That reflects record high debt interest costs of £83bn, double our October forecast, and near-term rebates and tax cuts that inject £17.6bn into the economy.

The latter offset half the blow to household finances from higher energy and fuel bills and a third of the overall fall in living standards that households would otherwise have faced.

The OBR points out that some of the support for energy bills will be recouped in future years, while the 5p a litre cut to fuel duty is to be “more than fully reversed” next year.

Over half the £9bn in energy costs support is recouped over the subsequent five years, while the 5p fuel duty cut is to be more than fully reversed next year. The ‘pay later’ phase of these measures comes when energy bills are set to fall back.

(The £200 rebate to many energy bills this autumn is clawed back by a £40 a year levy in bills over the next five years).

Updated

The increase to the national insurance threshold announced by Rishi Sunak will not come into force in time for the new tax year in April. Instead it will apply from July.

The Treasury says that is “the earliest date that will allow all payroll software developers and employers to update their systems and implement changes”.

Updated

OBR: living standards heading for historic fall

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s verdict is in. It warns that living standards will fall at the fastest pace on record.

With inflation surging to the highest in decades, the fiscal watchdog says the unprecedented squeeze means real living standards won’t reach pre-pandemic levels for two years.

The public finances have emerged from the pandemic in better shape than expected. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will push inflation to a 40-year high of almost 9%, and living standards are set for a historic fall over the next 12 months.

Higher inflation will erode real incomes and consumption, dragging growth this year down to just 3.8%, from 6% forecast before.

The OBR explains:

With inflation outpacing growth in nominal earnings and net taxes due to rise in April, real livings standards are set to fall by 2.2% in 2022-23 – their largest financial year fall on record – and not recover their pre-pandemic level until 2024-25.

A 2.2% fall in real household disposable incomes per person would be the largest fall in a single financial year since ONS records began in 1956-57.

Updated

Rachel Reeves says Sunak's tax-cutting claims 'increasingly incredible'

Back in the Commons, Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, says Rishi Sunak’s claims are “increasingly incredible”.

She says he seems to have taken inspiration from Alice in Wonderland. Or Alice in Sunakland, she says.

She says Sunak is giving people £200, but asking for it all back. He says he believes in lower taxes, but taxes are going up. She says Alice would ask, do lower taxes mean higher taxes? It is like Alice in Wonderland, she says: “When I use the word, it means just what I choose it to mean.”

Sunak is living in a different reality, she says.

UPDATE: Reeves said:

Perhaps the chancellor has been taking inspiration from the characters of Alice in Wonderland - or should I say Alice in Sunakland, because nothing here is quite as it seems either.

It’s the sort of place where a chancellor celebrates giving people £200 to help them with their spiralling energy bills before explaining he needs it all back.

In Sunakland, the chancellor claims ‘I believe in lower taxes’ while at the same time as hiking Alice’s national insurance contributions. So Alice asks the chancellor ‘when did lower taxes mean higher taxes, has down really become the new up?’. The chancellor follows Humpty Dumpty’s advice and says ‘when I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less’.

Alice knows that under the Conservatives taxes are at their highest level in decades as a result of the policies of this very same chancellor. In fact, this chancellor is the only G7 finance minister to raise taxes on working people during this crucial year of recovery. Curiouser and curiouser.

As Alice climbs out of the rabbit hole to leave Sunakland, she recalls the words of the white rabbit and concludes that perhaps the chancellor’s reality is just different from yours.

Updated

The increase in the National Insurance threshold to £12,570 (from £9,600 today) is a tax cut for middle and high-income workers, explains Torsten Bell of the Resolution Foundation:

National Insurance threshold going up to £12,570. Big increase, costs £6bn. Simplifies the tax system. Tax cut worth up to £300 odd per worker

— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell) March 23, 2022

This is a tax cut for the middle and top of the income distribution - only £1 in £3 of the benefit goes to the bottom half

— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell) March 23, 2022

In a research paper earlier this week, Resolution explained that the poorest half of households would only receive a third of the benefit from increasing the NI threshold [it won’t help those earning less than £12,500, or not in work at all]:

They said.

A rise in the NI threshold...would still see more than half of the benefit going to the richest half of the population (only £1 in every £3 would go to the bottom half, who would on average gain £250 a year if the threshold were raised to £12,500).

The Treasury has now published all the spring statement documents on its website. There are here.

Here is the main spring statement document (pdf).

And here is the spring statement tax plan (pdf).

But Paul Johnson, head of the IFS, is much less impressed by the tax cut pencilled in for 2024.

Oh for goodness sake.

What is the possible justification for cutting income tax rate while raising NI rate?

Drives further wedge between taxation of unearned income and earned income. Yet again benefits pensioners and those living off rents at expense of workers

— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) March 23, 2022

And he says Sunak seems to have done nothing for those reliant on benefits.

The big omission from this statement was anything for those subsisting on means tested benefits. They will be facing cost of living increases of probably 10% but their benefits will rise by just 3.1%.

And cut compared to last year if you account for withdrawal of £20 UC uplift

— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) March 23, 2022

These are from Paul Johnson, the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, on the decision to lift the national insurance threshold.

Very big increase in NI floor. Will, initially, more than compensate about 70% of workers for the NI increase coming in April.

Matching income tax personal allowance welcome return to 2010 system...

— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) March 23, 2022

Reckon that will net benefit those on c. £35k and below

— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) March 23, 2022

BUT income tax threshold frozen for 4 years. Assume same true for NI threshold to keep them aligned.

So benefit will dissipate somewhat over time and breakeven salary will gradually drop.

— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) March 23, 2022

Updated

That’s it. Sunak has finished.

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, is responding.

She says Sunak could have put a windfall tax on energy companies, or properly cut his national insurance increase, but he didn’t.

She says Sunak talks about security. But his choices are making the cost of living crisis worse, not better, for people.

Sunak says the government has a record of cutting tax.

He ends by saying his tax plan will deliver the biggest net cut to personal taxes in more than a quarter of a century.

Updated

Sunak says he will cut basic rate of income tax by 1p in the pound in 2024

Sunak says income tax has only been cut twice in 20 years.

That shows how hard it is to do, he says.

Covid and the war have made that harder.

It would be irresponsible to meet that ambition – cutting tax – this year.

But he refuses to let that ambition wither, he says.

  • Sunak says before the end of this parliament, in 2024, the basic rate of income tax will be cut from 20p in the pound to 19p in the pound.

He says this is fully costed in the plans announced today.

He says he can say this because the government has been responsible with the public finances.

Updated

Inflation this year is going to be much higher than previously forecast.

The Office for Budget Responsibility now estimates inflation will average 7.4% this year - meaning an extremely painful squeeze on families, with real wages likely to fall through the year for millions of workers.

Last October, it forecast inflation of 4% this year (which would already have been double the Bank of England’s 2% target).

We learned this morning that inflation hit 6.2% in February. The energy price cap is 54% in April (with another rise feared in the autumn), and commodity prices are being pushed up by the Ukraine war, so 2022 will bring much more pain to households.

Our March 2022 CPI inflation forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #SpringStatement speech pic.twitter.com/4RqwIx6gvt

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) March 23, 2022

Sunak says a new tax cut for small businesses, an allowance for workers they employ, will save them up to £1,000.

Sunak says the business rates discount coming into effect next month for retail, hospitality and leisure businesses will save them up to £110,000.

A typical pub will save £5,000, he says.

Sunak says in the autumn he will cut tax rates on business investment.

Sunak says R&D tax credits are being reformed.

And in the autum he will decide whether to make the R&D expenditure credit more generous.

This is from Torsten Bell, head of the Resolution Foundation thinktank, on the NI threshold increase.

This is a tax cut for the middle and top of the income distribution - only £1 in £3 of the benefit goes to the bottom half

— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell) March 23, 2022

Sunak says 70% of workers to get effective tax cut from £6bn plan to lift NI threshold by £3,000

Sunak is now talking about the national insurance threshold.

The threshold was due to go up by £300, he says.

But instead it will go up by £3,000.

This means it will be equivalent to the income tax threshold.

That is a £6bn tax cut for 13 million people.

And that amounts to a tax cut for people of £330 a year.

It is the single biggest tax cut for a decade, he says, and the IFS said it was the best step to take.

He says 70% of workers will have their taxes cut by more than they pay for the new levy.

Updated

Sunak says the NHS now has a dedicated tax supporting it: the health and care levy.

But that is compatible with reducing taxes on families, he says.

Over the last decade it has been a Conservative mission to cut taxes for working people, he claims.

Some opposition MPs are laughing at this.

Updated

Growth in 2022 and 2023 cut

UK economic growth this year, and next year, will be slower than forecast at last autumn’s budget, as headwinds hit the economy (rising inflation, the Ukraine war).

But growth is seen picking up in 2024:

  • 2022: 3.8%, down from 6.0% growth forecast in last October’s economic and fiscal outlook
  • 2023: 1.8%, down from 2.1% forecast last October
  • 2024: 2.1%, up from 1.3% last October
  • 2025: 1.8%, up from 1.6% last October
  • 2026: 1.7%, unchanged from last October’s forecast

Last year was stronger than the 6.5% forecast, with GDP rising 7.5%.

Our March 2022 GDP forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #SpringStatement speech pic.twitter.com/YFc9c5SSA9

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) March 23, 2022

Sunak explains principles behind government's new tax plan

Sunak says he is still committed to cutting taxes by the end of this parliament.

Today he is publishing a tax plan. He says the government will continue to be disciplined.

The new plan will build a strong economy by reforming taxes in three ways: it will help families; create the conditions for higher growth; and share the proceeds of growth fairly.

Updated

Sunak says underlying debt is falling.

But he says small changes to the economic outlook could wipe out this headroom.

He says this year the government will be spending £83bn on debt interest. That is the highest amount on record, and almost four times what was spent last year.

Sunak says he is putting another £500m into the household support fund, which allows councils to help poorer families.

Sunak cuts VAT on energy saving devices to zero

Sunak says the government can now cut VAT on energy effiency measures.

  • Sunak says VAT being cut to zero on energy saving devices, such as solar panels.

This could cut the cost of having a solar panel installed by £1,000.

Northern Ireland will not get this because of the protocol, he says. But he says Northern Ireland will get equivalent funding.

Updated

Sunak cuts fuel duty by 5p a litre, at cost of £5bn

Sunak says he is announcing three meassure to help with energy costs.

  • Fuel duty is being cut by 5p a litre, Sunak says.

He says this is the biggest cut to fuel duty ever. It will be in place until March next year.

It is worth more than £5bn.

And it will take effect from 6pm

Updated

Sunak says OBR forecasts growth at 3.8% this year

Sunak says these actions are “not cost-free”.

The invasion poses a risk to the UK recovery, he says.

The UK came into this with a strong recovery. But the OBR says its initial view is that it now forecasts growth of 3.8% this year, followed by 1.8% in 2023, 2.1% in 2024, 1.8% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.

Updated

Sunak sums up aid already delivered to Ukraine. And sanctions against Russia are unprecedented, he says.

Be in no doubt: these sanctions, coordinated with our allies, are working.

The rouble has plunged, the Russian central bank has more than doubled interest rates to 20%, and the Moscow stock market has been largely closed since the invasion began.

He says he is proud to say we stand with Ukraine.

Updated

Sunak is now talking about security – military security, and financial.

He uses the passage briefed overnight. See 9.37am.

Updated

Sunak says people in Ukraine are seeking protection and soldiers are defending their land. The sorrow we feel for them, and admiration for their bravery, is matched by our gratitude to our armed forces.

That is underpined by a strong economy.

But, behind Putin’s invasion, is a calculation that democracies are weak.

This calculation is mistaken.

What Putin sees as division, we see as debate. What he sees as chaos, we see as creativity.

Updated

We'll get bigger policy announcements than people are expecting at 12.30pm - fuel duty cut and national insurance threshold rise are the certainties. Question is whether they are combined with anything targeted at those who will be hardest hit by the cost of living surge

— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell) March 23, 2022

Rishi Sunak delivers spring statement

Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, is starting his spring statement now.

Johnson says government will legislate to close minimum wage loophole for seafarers as fast as possible

Karl Turner (Lab) says the PM could act now to ensure the national minimum wage applies not on UK international routes. Will he stand up for British workers, or the oil state Dubai?

Johnson says the government will ensure everyone working in the UK economic zone gets paid the living wage, and it will do so “as fast as we possibly can”.

Here’s our news story on Boris Johnson saying that P&O Ferries appears to have broken the law when it suddenly sacked 800 workers last week:

Shailesh Vara (Con) says it is 50 years since the UK took in the Ugandan Asians. Will the PM learn the lessons from the success of that scheme?

Johnson says the UK is “overwhelmingly generous” to refugees.

Bill Esterson (Lab) asks the PM if he will tell DP World that, if they want to run free ports, they should reinstate P&O workers.

Johnson says his overwhelming concern is to protect jobs. But he also wants to attract investment, he says.

Angela Richardson (Con) asks if the PM supports research into why so many girls are experiencing gender distress.

Johnson says he would be happy to have a meeting on this. MPs realise this issue requires sensitivity, tact and care. If people want to make a transition, they should be treated with maximum generosity, he says.

But he says, when it comes to distinguishing between a man and a woman, “the basic facts of biology remain overwhelmingly important”.

Matt Western (Lab) asks about the PM’s attendance at Evgeny Lebedev’s parties, and says the PM’s “many weaknesses” may leave him open to blackmail. Does he know why MI6 do not trust him? (It is not clear if “him” is the PM, or Lebedev.)

Johnson says he could not detect a question in this “minestrone of nonsense”.

Steve Brine (Con) says people cannot work because their driving licences are stuck at the DVLA. It is not giving the service it should.

Johnson agrees, saying he has read some surprising things about the DVLA.

Mary Kelly Foy (Lab) says working people are being hammered by this government. She refers to the DWP job losses, as well as P&O. Why won’t the PM stop local communities loing high quality jobs.

Johnson says the government is helping people get back to work.

Andrew Percy (Con) asks about anti-semitism in univerities.

Johnson says for too long universities have been tolerant of casual antisemitism. This must be rooted out, he says.

Rebecca Long Bailey (Lab) says today the Mirror has uncovered data showing that the government may have given wrong figures about the number of people exposed to radiation through nuclear testing in the past.

Johnson says is office is organising a proper meeting on this issue.

Naz Shah (Lab) says Bradford has it all - apart from government support. Will the PM reverse the snub to it in the northern rail plan, and put a new stop in Bradford?

Johnson says the government is looking at how it can ensure high-speed rail goes to Bradford.

Updated

Graham Stringer (Lab) says the Football Association is refusing to move the Liverpool/Manchester City final from Wembley, even though having 60,000 people travel to London is bad for the enviroment. Will he legislate for an independent regulator for football?

Johnson says the government will introduce an independent football regulator.

Jason McCartney (Con) says he has a vibrant Ukrainian community in his constituency. Will the PM thank everyone who has rallied round to support Ukraine.

Johnson says he is proud of the UK’s response. Apart from the US, the UK is the biggest bilateral donor to Ukraine.

Updated

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says an aircraft is to leave the UK to pick up 50 Ukrainian orphans who will be starting a new life in Scotland. He thanks the government for its help with this, and hopes that more follow.

He says the people who bore the brunt of the health pandemic are now being hit by the cost of living crisis. The Scottish government has increased benefit payments for children. Will Westminster match that?

Johnson says the government is doing all it can to help. It wants to do more.

Referring to the orphans, he says this is a good example of how the government can cooperate with the SNP.

Blackford says inflation is at 6% and going up. The chancellor needs to ditch his photographer and listen to Martin Lewis. (See 11.48am.) He says the chancellor has £20bn extra to spend. Will he use this to scrap the national insurance hike?

Johnson says Blackford will get the answer to the questions in 10 minutes.

Updated

Bob Blackman (Con) asks if the PM agrees the age at which people can buy tobacco should be raised from 18 to 21.

Johnson says smoking is the biggest cause of preventable death in the country. A review of smoking is under way, he says.

Updated

Starmer says Labour proposed a bill to end fire and rehire on Monday, but government MPs abstained. Why should P&O workers take any comfort from Johnson’s “half-arsed bluster and waffle”.

Johnson says it is two years since lockdown. But thanks to the chancellor’s measures, the economy has recovered. It is now bigger than it was when the pandemic began. The government got the big calls right. Labour would have kept the country in lockdown, and it would not have protected P&O workers, because the ships would have been kept in port, he claims.

UPDATE: From Politico’s Esther Webber

Keir Starmer not the first to say "half-arsed" in parliament - that was Nicholas Soames in 2000 https://t.co/pRI6zenhkg pic.twitter.com/15rxcOE9EO

— Esther Webber (@estwebber) March 23, 2022

Updated

Starmer says that is what Johnson promised two years ago. But the PM does not have the backbone to act, he says.

Johnson says the law P&O is relying on was introduced as a result of EU directives.

He says the government will ensure workers have the best protection of all, which is a job.

Updated

Johnson says he will close loophole allowing some seafarers to be paid less than mimumum wage

Starmer jokes that DP World must be “quaking in its boots”. He says it is not illegal to pay seafarers below the minimum wage. Two years ago the government said that was unjustified, and promised to review it. But nothing was done. When will the government fix that gap in the law?

Johnson says Starmer should have listened to his earlier answer. The government will close that loophole, and ensure everyone working in the UK economic zone is paid the living wage.

Starmer says, if the PM only learned about it on the day, he did not read his WhatsApp briefing. Can the PM say these companies will not get any more taxpayers’ money until they reinstate the workers?

Johnson says the government is taking legal action. But if Labour is asking the government to “pitchfork away investment”, which is what it usually wants, the government won’t. That would be wrong.

Updated

Starmer says, when Owen Paterson was on the ropes, the PM ripped up the rulebook to help him. The government had advance notice of this, but it did nothing.

Johnson says Starmer did not listen to his first answer. He says he learned about the sackings on the day, and the government is taking action.

Updated

Johnson says he thinks P&O sackings broke the law

Keir Starmer says, if the PM cannot stop the callous sacking of 800 P&O employees, what is the point of his government?

Johnson says it looks as if P&O broke the law. The government will be taking action, he says. He cites two laws he says the company seems to have broken, and says they were passed by Tory governments.

Updated

Johnson says it is “fantastic” that 150,000 people have offered to house Ukrainian refugees.

At PMQs the first question is about the treatment of “child Q”. Boris Johnson says this was a deeply concerning incident and the Met is investigating.

Updated

This is from Alison Thewliss, the SNP Treasury spokesperson, showing the heavily redacted copy of the chancellor’s speech that she gets in advance.

A joy as always to get advance sight of the Chancellor’s Statement. #SpringStatement pic.twitter.com/VrEt5jOYRg

— Alison Thewliss 🧡 (@alisonthewliss) March 23, 2022

From Sky’s Beth Rigby

Cab read out ahead of Spring Statement
- CX 'described outlook as challenging given global shocks we are facing as a result of the conflict in Ukraine/rising inflation'
- CX highlighted £9bn support for energy bills in Feb (£200 cut in Oct that then paid back £40/yr for 5 yrs)

— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) March 23, 2022

This is from the Sun’s political editor, Harry Cole.

Massively growing speculation that Sunak will announce plans to cut income tax by 1p when he delivers his Spring mini-budget at noon... but it will come after whacking up taxes in April and wont come in until eve of election.https://t.co/zlN4LnKDeU

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) March 23, 2022

PMQs

In the Commons, before Rishi Sunak takes to his feet, we’ve got PMQs. Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

Robert Colvile, head of the Centre for Policy Studies thinktank, has got a useful thread starting here explaining why, even though the Treasury may be collecting more than it expected in tax, that does not really help the chancellor. It starts here.

Lots of people saying 'tax revenues are surging so Sunak has loads of scope to splash the cash'. But that simply isn't true. Quick (and depressing) thread.

— Robert Colvile (@rcolvile) March 23, 2022

This is from Martin Lewis, founder of MoneySavingExpert and one of the public figures trusted most by the public on financial matters. Yesterday he warned that people are facing a “fiscal punch in the face” when the energy price cap goes up next month.

Dear @RishiSunak, the UK is on the brink of a personal finance precipice. Today you, only you, have the tools to pull it back. To save lives. To improve living standards. To reduce millions' anxiety

This is what builds a legacy and makes a great Chancellor. Pls seize the chance

— Martin Lewis (@MartinSLewis) March 23, 2022

This is from Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, who will be responding to the Rishi Sunak statement.

Preparing for my response to the Spring Statement with @Keir_Starmer and @patmcfaddenmp.

Labour will get our economy firing on all cylinders.

With our plans to buy, make and sell more in Britain and our Climate Investment Pledge we will create a stronger economy. pic.twitter.com/tYI9cYQ3kS

— Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP) March 23, 2022

Laura Kuenssberg, the BBC political editor, says Rishi Sunak was holding two documents as he left 11 Downing Street this morning.

Look carefully, Sunak is holding 2 documents - whispers he'll unveil a separate economic plan or strategy alongside the statement... https://t.co/LLfMATzTEr via @BBCNews

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) March 23, 2022

Some 15,800 visas have been issued under the Ukraine family scheme as of 5pm yesterday, the Home Office has said. So far there have been a total of 33,500 applications submitted, according to provisional data published on the department’s website.

Putin 'greatly emboldened' by Brexit, says former UK defence attaché to Moscow

In his FT letter Carl Scott, the retired air commodore and the UK’s defence attaché in Moscow, also says Putin was “emboldened” by Brexit. He says:

It was not until I returned to the UK on the eve of our withdrawal from the EU, a manoeuvre which greatly emboldened those in Moscow, that I understood how our society had changed in the years I was serving overseas.

Government ignored warnings about Putin because it was compromised by Russian wealth, says former defence attaché

Turning away from the spring statement for a moment, the Financial Times today prints a damning letter from Carl Scott, a retired air commodore and the UK’s defence attaché in Moscow between 2011 and 2016, saying the government was repeatedly warned about Vladimir Putin’s military intentions - but that those warnings were ignored by a government influenced by Russian wealth.

Scott says:

I served as the UK’s defence attaché in Moscow for five years, 2011-2016, during which time this long, dark march to war was obvious, the path to conflict lit by the many pronouncements emanating from the dark red walls of Vladimir Putin’s palace.

We reported the inevitability of conflict in detail, regularly and with the despair of Cassandra. One of the earliest reports opened with a line from Sherlock Holmes, whose statue stands outside the British Embassy wall: “There’s an east wind coming all the same, such a wind as never blew on England yet. It will be cold and bitter, Watson, and a good many of us may wither before its blast.”

The evidence of Putin’s chosen path was never concealed. His many declarations were meant to be heard and understood: the colossal rearmament programme, the demand for more complex, more lethal weaponry; the militarisation of society; the distortion and seizure of the popular narrative; domination of education, the media and the courts to exclude contrasting views and, ultimately, the alienation and destruction of those among the Russian people who understood the folly of his declared ambition.

Scott says on his return to the UK he realised “all was subjugated to the City, all served the interests of our lucrative status as a safe haven for corrupt, and corrupting, wealth”. He concludes his letter.

I despair at the decisions Putin has taken, but even more at the prospect of finding credible leadership at home in the UK among those who have compromised so long with his regime and the wealth it offered.

Updated

Richard Hughes, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, has also been posing for a pre-spring statement picture - although his office is considerably less grand and photogenic than Rishi Sunak’s.

Our latest forecasts for the economy and public finances will be published later this afternoon after the Chancellor’s #SpringStatement speech 📘

Follow us later for charts and highlights 📊 pic.twitter.com/4KclmRVa0d

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) March 23, 2022

Last night, in an interview with Andrew Marr on LBC, the deputy Labour leader, Angela Rayner, said the national insurance increase due to come into force next month was “regressive”. It is a common claim on the left (the SNP make it too), but it is not the view of mainstream economists. This, from the Resolution Foundation (a thinktank run by a former Ed Miliband adviser) shows the distributional impact of policy changes taking effect in the 2022-23 tax year, and it shows how the national insurance increase will hit richer households more than poorer ones.

At the time the national insurance increase was announced, economists did argue that putting up income tax would have been even more progressive. But that does not make the NI hike regressive.

There is already a lot of policy coming into effect in 2022-23 - energy bill rebates, National Insurance rises and Income Tax threshold freezes. While progressive, it is small fry given scale of income squeeze so more support needed. We'll be adding bars to this chart after 1pm! pic.twitter.com/do8gBwaluS

— Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation) March 23, 2022

This is from Newsnight’s Ben Chu, on what is driving the inflation increase announced today.

Where's that 6.2% y/y UK Consumer Price inflation coming from?

Over half is from transport, fuel and food 👇 pic.twitter.com/PnzFSfLuoE

— Ben Chu (@BenChu_) March 23, 2022

According to a Sky News report, P&O Ferries did not need to give the government advance notice of its plans to sack 800 staff because of a change to employment law signed off by Chris Grayling when he was transport secretary in 2018. This meant ministers did not need to be notified about mass redundancies if vessels were registerd overseas. In a letter to the business department (pdf), released yesterday, the P&O Ferries chief executive, Peter Hebblethwaite, cited this as the reason why ministers did not get the usual notice; the ferries are all registered outside the UK.

Commenting on the story, Louise Haigh, the shadow transport secretary, said:

The Conservatives have given the green light to rogue employers to act with impunity. This scandal is the consequence of a decade in which the Tories have taken an axe to workers’ rights.

Talk is cheap - Ministers must act now and stand up for these loyal British workers. A Labour government will strengthen employee protections and ban fire and rehire to give people the security they deserve for an honest day’s work.

Today marks the second anniversary of the day when Boris Johnson announced the strict Covid lockdown, telling the nation that he was ordering people to stay at home. The anniversary is not getting as much attention as it might be doing otherwise, because there is rather a lot else on today, but Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, has posted this on Twitter, which is perfect for anyone needing a break from spring statement frenzy. It coincides with the Welsh government announcing a third commemorative woodland to remember those who died in the pandemic.

The last two years have been difficult for us all. We've made big sacrifices, and many have lost friends and family members.

As we mark two years since the first lockdown, and remember those we've lost, I encourage everyone to listen to this powerful poem by @iforapglyn pic.twitter.com/bdRPCZpLEx

— Mark Drakeford (@PrifWeinidog) March 23, 2022

Neil O’Brien, the levelling up minister, is giving evidence to the Commons Welsh affairs committee, and he has just told its members that they an expect to hear more about the allocation of levelling up funding in the spring statement later today. He is appearing alongside Sue Gray, who as second permanent secretary at the Cabinet Office oversees policy relating to the union. Obviously, she is much better known for her role as Partygate investigator, but no one has mentioned that, and so far her only contribution has been a very dull one about about Whitehall cooperation with Welsh local government.

Lady Howe, widow of the late former chancellor Lord Howe, has died aged 90 after a battle with cancer, her family said in a statement.

Tony Danker, the director general of the CBI, told Sky News this morning that Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, would be taking a big risk if he did not help the “hardest hit” today. He said:

[Sunak] has to send a signal that now is the time to invest, now is the time to grow - we need that more than ever given the year were facing ahead ... I think it would be very high-risk for the chancellor to not take action today to help those hardest hit in our economy and to help stimulate growth.

Last night the Treasury released a short extract from the speech Rishi Sunak will give delivering his spring statement, in which he will stress his desire to offer people “security”. He will say:

We will confront this challenge to our values not just in the arms and resources we send to Ukraine but in strengthening our economy here at home.

So when I talk about security, yes – I mean responding to the war in Ukraine.

But I also mean the security of a faster growing economy.

The security of more resilient public finances.

And security for working families as we help with the cost of living.

If this sounds familiar, that’s because Keir Starmer used very similar language in his “contract with the British people” speech in January.

Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, told the Today programme that he hoped the spring thresholds would see tax thresholds go up. He said:

One other thing I hope [Rishi Sunak, the chancellor] will do is this is really about that group who want to manage, want to look after their own finances, the decision not to increase the thresholds around income tax and national insurance. I hope he will actually reconsider that because one of the ways we can put money directly into the hands of those who need it is move those thresholds forward.

Many Tories want, and expect, Sunak to use the statement to raise the threshold at which people start paying national insurance from £9,880 (the level from April) closer to £12,570, which is the threshold above which people start paying income tax. This would protect the low paid from the £12bn national insurance hike coming into force next month.

Street also said that he hoped there would be more help for people with fuel bills later this year, and that the measures would be targeted at poorer families. He said:

I would hope that [Sunak] will actually say for October, when the next price cap comes, there will be a further move and I hope it will be targeted, particularly through the warm homes discount, so we really can think about those people who we have tended to call the ‘just about managings’, of whom there are many more in places like this than the affluent areas.

That sounded like a veiled criticism of the fuel support package announced by Sunak last month, which was intended to help most families and included very litte specifically targeted at low-income households.

Commons Treasury committee tells Sunak poorest families likely to be worst hit by impact of Ukraine war

Good morning. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, is delivering his spring statement at 12.30pm and - for what seems the umpteenth time in his two-year stint at the Treasury - a “fiscal event” that was originally intended to be quite modest (involving, say, the odd billion or so swishing around in the accounts) has instead been transformed by events into something much more ambitious. The media are describing this as another “mini-budget”, but these days even the mini-budgets seem to involve tax rises or giveaways which are bigger than those you used to get in “normal” budgets in the days before politics became a permanent crisis.

As my colleague Graeme Wearden reports on his business live blog, the inflation figures came out this morning and CPI (consumer price index) inflation hit 6.2% in February - the highest rate for 30 years.

Graeme will be joining more here later and together we will be covering the spring statement, and providing analysis, reaction - and a guide to all the “small print” snags not mentioned by Sunak in his speech.

This morning the Commons Treasury committee has published a report highlighting the problems facing Sunak. It is about the economic sanctions on Russia, but the Tory-dominated committee says that they will push up costs in the UK, and that poorer families are most at risk. It says:

Despite producing significant amounts of oil and gas, the UK is not protected from the economic consequences of sanctioning Russian oil and gas production. The price paid for gas in the UK is dependent on the level of demand for gas in Europe. The price paid for oil in the UK is dependent on the global price of oil. Further sanctions on Russian oil or gas will lead to higher prices which in turn will feed through to UK households and businesses.

There will be a cost to the UK economy of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia. It is not possible yet to quantify that cost. But we believe that, on the information currently available, it is most definitely a cost worth bearing in order to aid Ukraine in opposing Russian aggression. However, that cost, combined with the already present pressures in the UK on the cost of living, will impact the whole country, and will be felt particularly by low income households.

As the government moves forward with its sanctions strategy, it must take further action to support UK households, in particular those on lower incomes, to manage the subsequent rise in energy and other costs.

Here is our overnight preview of the spring statement, by Larry Elliott and Heather Stewart.

And here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Boris Johnson chairs cabinet, where Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, will tell colleagues what’s in the spring statement.

9.30am: Sue Gray, second permanent secretary at the Cabinet Office, and Neil O’Brien, the levelling up minister, give evidence to the Welsh affairs committee on levelling up. (This is the Sue Gray who conducted the Partygate investigation, although she is not expected to discuss that this morning.)

12pm: Boris Johnson faces Keir Starmer at PMQs.

12.30pm: Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, delivers the spring statement.

2.30pm: Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, holds a press conference.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow and Graeme is on @graemewearden.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com.

Updated

Contributors

Andrew Sparrow and Graeme Wearden

The GuardianTramp

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