Elections 2021: Sadiq Khan wins second term as London mayor –as it happened

We’re wrapping up this blog now.

Here is a reminder of the key recent developments in the UK’s local elections:

• The SNP won 64 seats in Holyrood – just short of an outright majority by 1. This is a historic result for the party and – together with the Scottish Greens’ 8 seats – voters have elected a majority of pro-independence candidates. Former SNP leader Alex Salmond’s Alba party failed to win a seat.
• Boris Johnson invited SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon for crisis talks on the Union after the First Minister warned he would be standing in the way of democracy if he denies Scotland a second independence referendum, PA Media reports.
• As well as the shock defeat in Hartlepool, Labour a net loss of six councils and more than 200 seats in the local elections, ceding Harrow in Essex to the Tories and losing overall control in Durham in the process.
• Welsh Labour won 30 of the Senedd’s 60 seats, matching the party’s best-ever result. This puts Labour, who gained 1 vote since the last election, just 1 vote away from a majority in Wales’ parliament.
• Keir Starmer has reportedly hired pollster Deborah Mattinson as Labour’s new director of strategy, an announcement the party made only hours after deputy leader Angela Rayner was sacked as chairman.
• Starmer sacked Angela Rayner from her roles as party chair and national campaign coordinator – a move that has triggered widespread anger among Labour MPs.
  
• London reelected Sadiq Khan as mayor, with the Labour incumbent gaining 55.2% of the total vote. Conservative Shaun Bailey came second with 44.8% – a better result than expected.
  
• Labour candidate Marvin Rees was re-elected as Mayor of Bristol, 50,510 votes, or 36.33%.
• Labour candidate Nik Johnson (51.3%) gained the mayoralty of Cambridgeshire & Peterborough, winning the seat from Conservative incumbent James Palmer.
  
• There was another gain for Labour in the West of England, which declared Dan Norris mayor with 59.5% of the total vote, while Tory candidate Samuel Williams got 40.5%.
• In other mayoral races, Labour held Doncaster, Greater Manchester, Liverpool, Liverpool city region, North Tyneside and Salford. The Conservatives held Tees Valley and West Midlands.
• The result of the mayoral race in West Yorkshire has not been declared yet.

Earlier, Nicola Sturgeon pledged to press ahead with plans for a second independence referendum after the Scottish National party won its fourth consecutive Holyrood election, triggering a constitutional battle with Boris Johnson – who responded by invited the SNP leader for crisis talks:

You can find all of the results so far here:

Labour’s Marvin Rees, who was re-elected as Mayor of Bristol tonight, has tweeted that he is “humbled” by the result.

“We’ll keep working together as one city for continued change -- focused on delivering more new jobs and more new affordable homes for #Bristol with inclusion and sustainability at the heart of all we do,” he said.

A reminder of where things stand for Labour: As well as the shock defeat in Hartlepool, the party had a net loss of six councils and more than 200 seats in the local elections, ceding Harrow in Essex to the Tories and losing overall control in Durham in the process.

Labour failed to topple Tory mayoral incumbents in the Tees Valley and the West Midlands, although did produce surprise victories in the West of England and the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral contests, along with comfortable wins in Greater Manchester and the Liverpool City Region.

Richard Burgon MP, former shadow justice secretary and prominent left-wing critic, has called for a “special party conference” to produce a plan to reverse Labour’s polling fortunes in the aftermath of the losses.

Back to Bristol, here is an interview with the re-elected Mayor, Marvin Rees, from earlier this year:

Here is the moment the result was announced:

Here are the results in detail:

Winner: Marvin Rees (Lab) 50,510 (36.33%, -4.10%)
Sandy Hore-Ruthven (Green) 36,331 (26.13%, +19.00%)
Alastair Watson (C) 25,816 (18.57%, +4.59%)
Caroline Gooch (LD) 15,517 (11.16%, +5.40%)
Sean Donnelly (Ind) 4,956 (3.56%)
Tom Baldwin (TUSC) 3,194 (2.30%, +0.96%)
John Langley (Ind) 1,528 (1.10%)
Robert Clarke (Reform) 806 (0.58%)
Oska Shaw (ND) 389 (0.28%)

Rees is speaking at his old school, which is where the result was announced. “I came here between 1883 and 1990,” he says. “ Some of the kids I went to school with are no longer with us... It ain’t a fair world... We live in one of the most socially immobile places.”

But there “can be hope,” he says.

Rees and Hore-Ruthven have just entered the declaration room according to reporter Amanda Cameron – results any moment.

The race in Bristol is between Labour candidate and current mayor Marvin Rees and Greens challenger Sandy Hore-Ruthven.

We’re hearing that the Bristol announcement may be coming at 12.30, but as we have seen tonight with London, delays are far from impossible.

Because no candidate emerged with a majority in first preference votes in the race for Bristol mayor, voters’ second choices are now being tallied.

Here are those first preference results again:

• Marvin Rees (Lab) 50,510
• Sandy Hore-Ruthven (Green) 36,331
• Alastair Watson (Con) 25,816
• Caroline Gooch (Lib Dem) 15,517
• Sean Donnelly (Independent) 4,95

When Angela Rayner secured Labour’s deputy leadership, her authentic working-class credentials and respect from the party’s left instantly made her an important figure in Keir Starmer’s vow to reunite after the internal warring under Jeremy Corbyn. Her sacking as party chair, however, risks reopening Labour wounds that are far from healed.

While originally regarded as being on the party’s left flank when she entered parliament in 2015, Rayner has already shown some adept political skill in navigating the years of feuding.

While she was seen as on the party’s left, she was also not regarded as a staunch Corbynite. Even as Corbyn’s shadow education secretary, she managed to dodge much of the warring:

Hi, Helen Sullivan joining you now. I’ll be steering the good ship Ballot for the next little while.

If you’d like to get in touch with news, videos or your most profound thoughts, the best place is on Twitter @helenrsullivan or via email: helen.sullivan@theguardian.com.

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Manchester, has become the latest Labour MP to speak out against Keir Starmer’s sacking of Angela Rayner:

Labour MP Nadia Whittome also criticised the move:

No candidate has emerged with a majority in first preference votes in the race for Bristol mayor, meaning voters’ second choices will now be tallied.

Here are the first preference results:

• Marvin Rees (Lab) 50,510
• Sandy Hore-Ruthven (Green) 36,331
• Alastair Watson (Con) 25,816
• Caroline Gooch (Lib Dem) 15,517
• Sean Donnelly (Independent) 4,956

Sadiq Khan has thanked voters for their support after he was reelected as London mayor.

Khan tweeted: “Thank you London. It’s the absolute honour of my life to serve the city I love for another three years.

“I’ll leave no stone unturned to get our city back on its feet. A brighter future is possible, and we’ll deliver it together.”

The Labour party has lost its majority on Durham council for the first time in 100 years.

The council is now under no overall control.

It is nearly 11pm and we are still waiting for the result for London mayor. Here is what we have so far on first preference votes:

After the first preference votes, Labour’s Sadiq Khan had 1,013,721 (40%) while Conservative Shaun Bailey had 893,051 (35.3%).

Siân Berry of the Green party came third with 197, 976 (7.8%) while the Liberal Democrats’ Luisa Porritt was fourth with 111,796 (4.4%).

Turnout: 42.2%

Here’s a look at how the papers have responded to the latest round of election results – a mix of SNP’s victory and Angela Rayner’s sacking:

After some delay, Labour has won the City & East London assembly seat, with its candidate Unmesh Desai elected.

This gives Labour nine seats on the London assembly while the Conservatives have five.

From the Evening Standard’s Rachael Burford as we wait for the City & East London assembly result:

We’re also still waiting for the London mayor result to be announced as second preferences are tallied.

The result of London’s mayoral election has been delayed until 10pm, according to officials at City Hall.

In Wales, Natasha Asghar has become the first woman from a black, Asian and minority ethnic background to be elected to the Senedd.

She follows her late father, Mohammad Asghar, who was also a member of the Senedd until he died in 2020. He was the first person from a BAME background to be elected to the assembly, as it was then called.

Like her father, Asghar, who is of Pakistani heritage, has become a Conservative member for the the South Wales East region. She told ITV News it felt “absolutely amazing” to be the first BAME female MS. “To be the first woman is just incredible,” she said.

The Electoral Reform Society Wales welcomed the moment but expressed concern it had taken so long and pointed out that the number of female MSs is down to 26 from 29 prior to the 2021 election.

The Welsh Conservative Senedd leader, Andrew RT Davies, said he was “thrilled” that Asghar had made history.

The Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, has promised to offer “credible alternative” to the SNP over the next five years, despite the party’s poorest Scottish results since devolution.

The party returned 22 MSPs, down from 24 in 2016.

Sarwar said: “We’re on a journey to build a credible alternative to the SNP.

“Not just oppose the SNP, but to build a credible alternative. And that job doesn’t stop with this election campaign.

“I think even my harshest critics would accept we have run an energetic and enthusiastic campaign, we got Labour back on the pitch.

“That is something for us to build on for the next five years.”

The SNP are now just one seat short of an overall majority, with 64 seats.

The party won 63 seats in 2016.

Here are the results for the regional list of South Scotland:

• Con 3
• Lab 3
• SNP 1

Turning to the London assembly, Labour has won eight seats so far, while the Conservatives have three.

The London mayor announcement is expected at around 8:30pm.

Labour:

• Merton & Wandsworth
  
• Enfield & Haringey
• Greenwich & Lewisham
• Barnet & Camden
• Brent & Harrow
• North East
• Lambeth & Southwark
• Greenwich & Lewisham

Conservatives:

• Havering & Redbridge
  
• West Central
• Bexley & Bromley

There is widespread anger at Angela Rayner’s sacking. John McDonnell calls the move a “cowardly avoidance of responsibility”:

From the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot:

Sky’s Sam Coates has this line from a Labour source:

From LabourList editor, Sienna Rogers:

From the Guardian’s political editor – we’re working on getting formal confirmation from Labour:

More Scottish regional list results coming in, with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar keeping his seat in Glasgow.

• Lab: 4
• Con: 2
• Green: 1

PA reports:

The Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, has retained his seat on the Glasgow regional list as his party held four seats in the area.

There was no change from the 2016 results, with two Conservatives elected along with Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie.

Labour’s Pauline McNeill held her seat, as did Tory Annie Wells.

Former MP Paul Sweeney will return for Labour while Pam-Duncan Glancy was also elected for the party and Sandesh Gulhane for the Conservatives.

City Hall has confirmed that London’s mayor will be declared at around 8.30pm, with London Assembly results to follow soon afterwards.

Turning to the question of independence, Sturgeon says the majority back a progressive, outward-looking version of the future but face “many years of rightwing, Brexit-obsessed Tory government that we don’t vote for”.

She underlines that once the pandemic is over, “the people of Scotland must have the right to decide our own future”, which she describes as “a matter of fundamental democratic principle”.

The first minister says the SNP will deliver on its campaign pledges, underlining the party’s commitment to the following:

• remobilisation of NHS
• new national care service
• investment to support new green jobs and reskill people
• a “youth guarantee”
• action to tackle the climate emergency
• more housing, better schools and commitment to lifting children out of poverty

Nicola Sturgeon said she met with Syrian refugees in Glasgow who cast their first ballot on Thursday as foreign nationals and refugees were able to vote. She shares out the following message:

“Wherever you are from, whatever age you are, whatever your background – and no matter who you voted for – the SNP in government is dedicated to working for you.”

Nicola Sturgeon is making a statement in light of the SNP’s election results, which she calls “a historic achievement”.

She said:

“When we first entered government back in 2007 we secured just one more seat than the Labour party. Very few people back then could have predicted that 14 years later, the SNP would be reelected for a fourth consecutive term as Scotland’s government.

“We do know that on a record turnout, the SNP is on course to win 62 constituency seats – a higher number than ever before and would be an incredible 85% of the total. We haven’t just held every seat that we won back in 2016, we’ve gained seats from Labour and the Tories and recorded our best ever share of the constituency vote. We have won more votes and a higher share of the vote in the constituency ballot than any party in the history of devolution.

“This result is by any standard an extraordinary and historic achievement.”

Scotland’s Highlands and Islands regional list has been declared.

• Cons: 4
• Lab: 1
• SNP: 1
• Greens: 1

From PA:

The Scottish Tory leader, Douglas Ross, has won a seat on the Highlands and Islands regional list. Ross will be joined by returning Tory MSPs Edward Mountain, Jamie Halcro Johnston and Donald Cameron.

The Tories increased their share of MSPs on the list, taking a seat from the Labour party, with only Rhoda Grant returning to Holyrood for the party.

The SNP held a seat in the Highlands won in 2016, with Emma Roddick replacing the children’s minister, Maree Todd, who won the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency on Friday.

The Scottish Greens also maintained their seat in the region, with Ariane Burgess replacing the retiring John Finnie.

Scotland’s first list results are out, with Central Scotland declaring the following:

• Labour 3 (compared with 4 in 2016)
• Conservative 3 (no change)
• Green 1 (gain of 1)

Scotland is made up of eight electoral regions, each with seven regional MSPs:

• Central Scotland
• Glasgow
• Highlands and Islands
• Lothian
• Mid-Scotland and Fife
• Northeast Scotland
• South Scotland
• West Scotland

Asked whether it was realistic to have a referendum in the first half of parliament, Nicola Sturgeon said that while getting through the pandemic had to come first, it looked as though it was “beyond any doubt that there will be a pro-independence majority in Scottish parliament”.

She told BBC News: “By any normal standard of democracy that majority should have the commitments it made to the people honoured.

“For any Westminster politician who tries to stand in the way of that, I would say two things: firstly you’re not picking a fight with the SNP, you’re picking a fight with the democratic wishes of the Scottish people. Secondly, you will not succeed.

“The only people who can decide the future of Scotland are the Scottish people – no Westminster politician can or should stand in the way of that.”

Hello, I’m Clea Skopeliti and I’ll be bringing you the latest election results as they come in this evening.

You can reach me on Twitter with any updates or results from your area – thanks in advance.

Kaukab Stewart will become the first woman of colour to serve as an MSP in the Scottish Parliament after winning the Glasgow Kelvin seat, PA Media reports. PA says:

Stewart held the seat for the SNP with 14,535 votes, succeeding Sandra White.

Scottish Green Party co-leader Patrick Harvie finished second with 9,077 votes.

Scottish Labour picked up 8,605 votes, the Scottish Conservatives 2,850 and the Scottish Liberal Democrats 977.

Stewart earlier told the BBC it had been “a wee bit of a failure of all political parties” that it had taken so long for a woman of colour to be elected as an MSP.

Mark Drakeford, the Labour Welsh first minister, has said he hopes Boris Johnson will seek to “reset relationships” with devolved nations. He told PA Media:

This really is a moment that the prime minister should seize to reset relationships across the United Kingdom, for a serious examination of the way in which we can create the machinery that will allow us to work together in the future.

Not an approach that thinks flying more Union Jacks at the tops of buildings, but proper, respectful relationships that recognise that sovereignty is now dispersed across four parliaments in which we choose to pool it for common purposes.

That’s the sort of UK that I think will have the very best chance of surviving, because it will be a UK where people want to be here, rather than are instructed to be.

Ian Blackford, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, points out that, even if the SNP does not win an absolute majority, by conventional measures it has still done remarkably well.

From my colleague Helen Pidd

In his acceptance speech Andy Burnham says that if places like Greater Manchester are given a stronger voice, Westminster should expect those places to use it.

He quotes a report saying there was “cluelessness” in government about what levelling up means. Addressing Boris Johnson, Burnham says he can tell him what it should mean: a better public transport system, with cheaper fares; higher wages; and better homes.

He says the election is a resounding mandate to bring the bus network under public control.

I will post direct quotes from his speech shortly.

Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, has said Alex Salmond should now leave frontline politics. Salmond’s Alba party is not expected to win any seats in the election. Asked if it was time for Salmond to quit, Ross told PA Media:

Yeah. He should never have come back, I said he was a totally unsuitable person to seek elected office again.

He claims - as he has - that he’s been cleared by court cases etc but he accepted his own behaviour fell well below the standard expected of someone in elected office.

And I think it was wrong for him to seek election again and the people of the north-east have been very clear they don’t want him.

Andrew Fisher, who was head of policy for Jeremy Corbyn when he was Labour leader, thinks Paul Dennett, the mayor of Salford (see 3.03pm), and Matthew Brown, the Labour leader of Preston council, offer a solution for Labour’s recovery. As the Lancashire Post reports, Labour did better in Preston in these elections than it did nationally.

UPDATE: My colleague Aditya Chakrabortty wrote a good column about Matthew Brown and Preston three years ago. It’s here.

In an interview with BBC Scotland Patrick Harvie, the co-leader of the Scottish Greens, was asked if he thought it would strengthen the position of the pro-independence parties in the next parliament (the SNP and the Scottish Greens) if they formed a formal coalition. Harvie said that he did not think that was critical. He went on:

The clear position is that the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland should be respected.

Now if the anti-independence political parties – Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems – between them had a majority in the Scottish parliament by the time the final results have been declared, I would regret it, but I would have to accept that that’s a democratic principle and that a referendum wasn’t going to happen in the new session.

But if there’s a pro-independence majority, all that is needed is that the other political parties accept the same democratic principle.

Sky News has also produced its own calculation about how the parties are doing in terms of overall share of the vote on the basis of the English local elections. According to Sky’s Sam Coates, these figures suggest that if people voted in a general election as they did on Thursday, Boris Johnson would be re-elected with a majority of 48. That is not as large as the one he won in December 2019 (80), but it is still a very good result for a government heading for its mid-term.

The SNP continue to lead the Holyrood elections, but it is still not clear if they will win an overall majority, PA Media reports. PA says:

Nicola Sturgeon’s party gained three seats during the count on Friday - the only party to take a constituency from another - winning Ayr, Edinburgh Central and East Lothian.

However, uncertainty continued into Saturday, as the wins picked up by the SNP could cause the party to lose regional seats under Holyrood’s system, cancelling out gains made.

With 61 seats declared, the SNP have taken 52, the Scottish Lib Dems four, with the Tories on three and Labour on two.

The coronavirus pandemic meant traditional overnight counts were abandoned after Thursday’s Scottish parliament election.

And while new MSPs at Holyrood have still to be declared, Sturgeon said it is “almost certain” the SNP will win its fourth term in power at Holyrood.

She also stressed that “when the time is right”, she should be able to offer Scots “the choice of a better future” in a second independence referendum.

Don’t pretend you aren’t interested in what Andy Burnham is wearing today for what is expected to be a second coronation as mayor of Greater Manchester/King of the North.

He has arrived at the count at Manchester Central dressed in what I’d describe as “classic northern casual”. Despite heavy rain he was not wearing the cagoule in which he delivered one of his defiant anti-government speeches last autumn, but a dark jacket, dark shirt, slim jeans and box-fresh black suede Clarks Wallabees. No tie. Definitely ready for a big soggy night out in one of Manchester’s beer gardens later.

The scale of his victory should be confirmed at around 3.30pm.

Here are the full results for the Welsh parliament:

The Conservative Andy Street has secured a first preference vote lead over Labour’s Liam Byrne in Wolverhampton, with 27,784 votes to Byrne’s 24,989, in the contest for West Midlands mayor.

He has also taken a huge lead in Walsall with 35,010 votes, considerably more than Byrne’s 19,887.

Byrne has secured a win in Labour stronghold Sandwell however, with 33,047 votes, but Street wasn’t too far behind on 27,876.

The final results for the whole West Midlands combined authority are due imminently.

Andy Burnham has arrived at his count in Manchester, Sky’s Inzamam Rashid reports.

Labour’s Liam Byrne has won the most first preference votes in Birmingham for the West Midlands mayoral elections, but other areas have yet to declare.

Byrne took 102,276 votes (48.2%), while the Conservatives’ Andy Street took 84,813 (39.9%).

The Greens were in third with 12,435.

The turnout in the Birmingham area was just 10.7%.

However results from other parts of the combined authority, including Walsall, Wolverhampton, Solihull and Coventry, have yet to be announced, and polls have suggested a win for Street.

I’m Andrew Sparrow and I’m back, taking over from Molly.

Jonathan Carr-West, chief executive of the Local Government Information Unit thinktank, has issued this statement about the latest results from the English local elections. He said:

The big story everyone is focusing on is the shift from Labour to the Conservatives; and yesterday’s results (and this morning’s papers) certainly make grim reading for Labour HQ. But as more results come in we can see that underneath this big picture some more complex local stories are bubbling away.

Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, while losing seats nationally, have made gains, some of them substantial, in many areas. The Greens have gained seats in places as distinct as Sheffield and Suffolk, while independents, predicted to struggle because of restrictions on campaigning, have also done well from Castle Point to Surrey.

The Observer’s policy editor, Michael Savage, has this update on the London mayoral election:

Sadiq Khan is on course to be re-elected as mayor of London for a second term, after a victory that is set to be less emphatic than predicted after a late increase in support for his Conservative opponent.

By late morning, Khan was ahead in five of seven remaining areas. He had an overall lead, with 40% of the vote compared with 36% for the Tory candidate, Shaun Bailey. The lead could grow, however, as counts continue in more strongly pro-Labour areas. Labour sources in London reported that the race had become tighter in the closing stages, with both Khan’s support for low-traffic neighbourhoods and rising crime being issues raised by voters.

As recently as March, polls had given Khan a huge 25-point lead over Bailey, handing him 53% of the vote. That would have resulted in him winning outright on the first round of counting, without the need to count the second preferences of voters. However, polls closed in recent weeks suggested the issue of crime had dented his lead.

Some Labour figures accused Khan of complacency, adding that the party had been lucky that in Shaun Bailey, the Tories had chosen a weak candidate who proved unable to make a bigger impression.

Uncertainty due to the coronavirus pandemic has led people to vote for parties they are familiar with, Scottish Labour’s education spokesperson has said. Michael Marra told Sky News:

I think what we are seeing is people voting for incumbent governments.

In Wales, it’s really interesting to see quite how strong the result has been for Labour in Wales, and London with Sadiq Khan, and then the Tories in England and the SNP in Scotland.

So there’s a big case of “as you were” across the UK in this regard. I think that at a time of real uncertainty for people because of the Covid situation, people have backed the governments that have been in place, the ones that they know.

The turnout in the Scottish parliamentary elections is the highest ever, Sky News reports.

The latest figures put turnout at 63.7%.

Counting is under way in Leeds. The council shared this update with a photograph of the proceedings:

Our Scotland correspondent, Libby Brooks, has this analysis of the election results and what this could mean for Scottish independence:

With all the ongoing speculation about whether the SNP can secure an outright majority of seats at Holyrood, it’s worth repeating that the proportional Scottish voting system was very much designed not to deliver a majority for any one party, to break with the two party see-saw at Westminster.

There’s now some chatter that only a SNP majority would mean a mandate for a second independence referendum. Throughout the campaign, there’s been an assumption that a pro-independence majority at Holyrood could be made up of Scottish Greens (and possibly Alba, though this is looking increasingly unlikely as the votes come in) MSPs as well as SNP members.

So it’s worth checking what the relevant manifestos say.

According to the SNP manifesto: “If the SNP is returned to government and there is a simple majority in the Scottish parliament for [the referendum] bill after the election there can be no moral or democratic justification for Boris Johnson or any Westminster government to obstruct the right of the people of Scotland to decide their own future.”

While the Scottish Greens state: “The legislation covering all aspects of the referendum, including the question and the timing, should be decided by a simple majority of the Scottish parliament. The Scottish Greens will campaign and vote for a referendum within the next parliamentary term...”

So it’s clear that, for the parties themselves, a simple majority of pro-independence MSPs equals a mandate for a second independence referendum. And that’s before we get into questions of vote share: it looks like the SNP is currently standing at 47.2%, which is more than both Scottish Tories and Labour combined.

My colleague Jessica Murray has this update in the West Midlands mayoral election:

The Northern Powerhouse Partnership has predicted Conservative Andy Street will win the West Midlands mayor election comfortably on first preference votes alone.

According to their polling, conducted by Opinium, Street predicted take 54% of first preference votes compared to 37% for Labour’s Liam Byrne.

Once second preferences are taken into account, Street’s lead grows from 17 to 18 points, winning 59 per cent to 41 per cent.

When Street was elected to the role in 2017, he only narrowly beat Labour by less than 4,000 second preference votes.

The result is due to be announced later this afternoon.

Hi everyone, I’m Molly Blackall, taking over the blog for a little while.

If you spot any updates or results coming in from your area, feel free to let me know on Twitter.

Turning away from the elections for a moment, the Ulster Unionist party leader Steve Aiken has announced his intention to resign. In a letter to the party chairman, Aiken wrote: “To achieve our goals, we now need new leadership.”

The UUP is no longer a major force in Northern Ireland politics. But Aiken’s move follows the announcement last week by Arlene Foster that she was resigned as DUP leader and first minister.

My colleague Molly Blackall is taking over the blog for a bit now. I will be back later.

Sky’s Sam Coates is sceptical of the Labour announcement that it is going to hold a policy review. (See 10.54am.)

Counting has begun of the 714,745 votes cast in the Greater Manchester mayoral election, with incumbent Andy Burnham widely expected to win the poll, PA Media reports. PA says:

Burnham won 63.4% of the votes cast in 2017 and turnout is up around 5% on the last election, to 34.74%.

The outcome of the first round of voting is expected around 3pm, although with Burnham running for a second term and nine candidates in all, the election could go to a second round, with second preference votes also then counted to decide the winner.

According to the BBC, Labour sources in the West Midlands fear that Andy Street, the Conservative mayor, could be re-elected on the first ballot. That will happen if he gets more than 50% of the vote. Mayors are elected using the supplementary vote system which means that if no candidate gets 50% on first preferences, the second preferences who fail to make the top two are taken into account.

Although Labour has been losing council seats in England, and it lost the Hartlepool parliamentary seat to the Conservatives for the first time in more than 60 years, in Wales it has been doing well. Here is an extract from a briefing that Welsh Labour sent out overnight.

Welsh Labour has once again confounded expectations, on course to hit 30 seats once Mid and West Wales regional votes are announced - while outperforming all pre-election polls and breaking new ground.

After 22 years in government, Welsh Labour were given a resounding vote of confidence, and will now form their sixth consecutive government since the advent of devolution.

The briefing note also credits the party with defeating Plaid Cymru in Rhondda and Llanelli, cutting Tory majorities in Monmouth and West Wales and getting swings from both Plaid and Tories.

Labour has currently 30 of the 60 seats in the Senedd. There are list seats still to be decided, but none of them are expected to go to Labour. But, as this chart from an Institute for Government briefing shows, 30 seats matches Labour’s best performances (in 2003 and 2011) in the previous five elections under devolution.

As many commentators have been pointing out, the Welsh results are further evidence that these elections have seen incumbents - or, more probably, administrations associated with delivering the vaccine rollout - doing well.

The husband of Woman F, one of two female civil servants to originally accuse Alex Salmond of sexual harassment, has given a powerful interview to the Daily Record in which he describes in graphic detail the effect of the former first minister standing in the Holyrood election on his wife.

He tells the Record:

It has been impossible to move on with our day-to-day lives. My wife had always been driven in work and in life but is now a shadow of her former self, incapacitated by depression.

Talking about the vicious trolling endured by his wife, and indeed all those women who give evidence about Salmond’s alleged behaviour at his trial last March, he explains:

The social media attacks were like a black hole we were sucked into. It felt like watching my wife self-harm when she was glued to a screen reading abusive comments. She has been bullied by thousands of people she has never met who are hiding behind the shield of the internet.

This is from James Vincent, BBC Yorkshire’s political editor.

Stephen Gethins, the former SNP MP, has posted a useful thread on Twitter, rebutting the claim that the party would need an absolute majority at Holyrood to have a mandate for an independence referendum. He makes the point that, while first past the post at Westminster allows the government to implement policies without majority public support (“in 2015 David Cameron delivered an EU referendum after winning less than 37% of the vote”), the Scottish PR system was specifically designed to ensure that parties work together to implement measures that have majority support.

So the system was deliberately set up to ensure that mandates are linked to parliamentary majorities, not single party majorities, he points out.

The thread starts here.

And here are some of his tweets.

According to Sky’s Joe Pike, the regional ballot papers in Glasgow are two feet long.

From ITV’s Paul Brand

In an interview with BBC News Lorna Slater, the co-leader of the Scottish Greens, said that if a majority of MSPs in the new parliament back an independence referendum - as will be the case, even if the SNP does not win an outright majority, because her party supports independence - there will be a mandate for one. She told the programme:

We’re looking at it as a democratic process. The referendum we had in 2014 was granted by David Cameron because he saw that there was a clear democratic mandate for it, and there will be another clear democratic mandate this time. What kind of country are we if we ignore that kind of democratic mandate anyway.

She also said she thought Boris Johnson was opposed to a referendum because he knew he would lose.

Asked when she wanted the referendum to take place, Slater said her manifesto said during this parliament. She said her personal view was that it had to be after the pandemic was over, so that people could campaign properly.

This is from the Herald’s Tom Gordon on the Aberdeenshire East result. (See 10.57am.)

And this is from the BBC’s Nick Eardley.

From Sky’s political editor, Beth Rigby

The SNP has held Aberdeenshire East, but with a reduced majority. Here are the full results from PA Media.

Gillian Martin (SNP) 18,307 (44.63%, -1.16%)
Stewart Whyte (C) 16,418 (40.02%, +11.03%)
Conrad Wood (LD) 3,396 (8.28%, -10.74%)
Graeme Downie (Lab) 2,900 (7.07%, +0.87%)
SNP maj 1,889 (4.60%)
6.10% swing SNP to C
Electorate 64,059; Turnout 41,021 (64.04%, +8.74%)
And here is the 2016 result here.

2016: SNP maj 5,837 (16.80%) - Turnout 34,753 (55.30%)
Martin (SNP) 15,912 (45.79%); Clark (C) 10,075 (28.99%); Jardine (LD)
6,611 (19.02%); Flavell (Lab) 2,155 (6.20%)

English council election results have started coming in again this morning, after counting stopped overnight. Within the last few minutes we have had confirmation that the Conservatives have held Rushmoor and Reigate & Banstead. You can follow the results on our tracker here.

The most striking headline from the papers (see 10.02am) perhaps is the one on the Times’ splash (paywall) saying Boris Johnson is “preparing for a decade-long premiership after a series of historic victories in Labour’s former heartlands”. The story quotes unnamed cabinet ministers saying Johnson’s premiership could last even longer than Margaret Thatcher’s 11 years. It says:

Cabinet ministers suggested that Johnson could become one of Britain’s longest-serving prime ministers. One said: “It seems to me to be more than just a short-term rejection of Labour. It looks fairly permanent.”

Another said: “Labour haven’t represented working-class patriotic voters for a while. They’re too woke, too Islington metropolitan elite. They’re becoming a London party. Boris is a unique politician. If he wants he could do what Thatcher did and then some.”

A third cabinet minister said that only an “idiot” would challenge Johnson, adding: “It’s really important that the Conservatives win the culture wars and don’t ignore them.”

These cabinet ministers may be right. But it is worth remembering that political majorities can evaporate very quickly. Four years ago the Conservatives won a big victory in the local elections. They were 11 points ahead of Labour in terms of national share of the vote, which was remarkable for a party that had been in government for seven years. But a month later, in the general election, they were just two points ahead of Labour and May lost her majority.

Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser, made this point at the end of a long Twitter thread yesterday, suggesting it’s a mistake to assume outcomes are inevitable.

On the Today programme this morning Prof Sir John Curtice, the elections specialist, said there was clear evidence of tactical voting in Scotland by opponents of independence. He said:

Despite the claims of the unionist parties that voters were much more concerned about the pandemic, actually what these results reveal is the extent to which voters were concerned about the constitutional question.

One way in which that was realised was the extent of tactical voting. Particularly in those seats that both Conservatives and Labour were defending, there is pretty clear evidence that where the Conservatives have been lying third, they switched to Labour, and where Labour was lying third, they switched towards the Conservatives.

It’s also reviewed, of course in the high turnout. This is going to be a record high turnout for a Scottish parliament election.

So, whatever else we take away from this election, I think we have to take away, first, that Scotland really is ... concerned about the constitutional question. And secondly, probably when all the votes are counted, it’s going to underline that this country is pretty much evenly divided between supporters of independence and supporters the union, much as the opinion polls have been telling us for quite a while.

Murdo Fraser, the Scottish Conservative’s finance spokesman, told the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland this morning that his party had been affected by people voting tactically for other pro-union parties. But he said he was confident the Conservatives would retain their place as the second largest party in the parliament. He said:

The early indications are that we have polled very strongly in terms of the regional vote and I would expect that will mean we will come back very close to where we were in 2016 in terms of the number of seats, maybe slightly down, maybe slightly up ...

Our regional list vote may well even be up on where it was in 2016, and that should translate into seats.

Counting has started again in the Scottish parliament election, PA Media reports. PA says:

With 47 constituency results declared on Friday, the SNP had 38 seats, Liberal Democrats four, Conservatives three and Labour two.

Some constituencies are still to be counted on Saturday, when the crucial regional list results will also be declared.

Q: What will you do if Boris Johnson refuses to allow a second referendum?

Swinney says Johnson is not “some overlord”. He says Johnson should accept the democratic will of the Scottish parliament.

Q: So that means a court case, does it?

Swinney says that would not be necessary if Johnson accepted the will of the Scottish parliament.

John Swinney, Scotland’s deputy first minister, is being interviewed on the Today programme now. Nick Robinson is interviewing him.

Q: Do you accept you won’t get an overall majority?

Swinney says it is clear the SNP will be the largest party. It was always going to be “very, very challenging” to get an absolute majority.

Q: Do you accept that if you don’t have an absolute majority, you do not have a mandate for independence?

Swinney says he does not. He says what matters is the composition of the parliament.

Q: But what if someone voted Green because of climate change, not independence?

Swinney says independence was set out in the Greens’ manifesto.

Good morning. Many of the votes cast on “Super Thursday” are still being counted and today there will be particular focus on Scotland, where the SNP will win - but with its chances of having an absolute majority now looking slim. This is what Prof Sir John Curtice, the leading psephologist, told the Today programme this morning about the state of the contest in Scotland.

There is still a chance but in truth it’s a remote chance. It rests on whether or not the SNP can pick up Galloway and Aberdeenshire West, these two Conservative-held marginal seats, but those do look more like a long shot.

And it also depends on whether or not they can pick up a couple of list seats, one in the Highlands and one in the south of Scotland. But they would need to get at least three of those four seats in their lap and the truth is, on the evidence of what we’ve seen so far, they will be lucky to make it.

So we’re probably not looking at an SNP overall majority.

But there will be a majority of pro-independence MSPs, ie the SNP and the Greens in combination.

Unionists argue that, without an absolute majority, Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister, would find it harder to claim that she has a mandate to call a second independence referendum. But nationalists argue that what counts is having a majority of MSPs in favour of independence and, as Curtice says, this outcome is certain.

Last night Sturgeon said that, with a majority of MSPs backing independence, it would be “absurd” to argue that Scotland should not have a referendum. She said:

If this was in almost any other democracy in the world it would be an absurd discussion.

If people in Scotland vote for a pro-independence majority in the Scottish parliament, no politician has got the right to stand in the way of that.

But Johnson has restated his opposition to allowing one. In an interview with the Daily Telegraph he said:

My impression was that they [the SNP] moved away from the idea of a referendum, and I think very wisely.

Because I don’t think this is anything like the time to have more constitutional wrangling, to be talking about ripping our country apart, when actually people want to heal our economy and bounce forward together. That’s what people want.

However Johnson has not categorically ruled out ever allowing a second referendum, and when the Telegraph asked him if it was true that privately he has said he would never sanction one, Johnson just replied: “I think a referendum in the current context is irresponsible and reckless. Let me leave it at that.”

Today we are expecting this argument to develop as counting continues in Scotland.

But we are also getting another slew of election results for councils and mayoral contests in England, including the elections for mayors in London, Greater Manchester and the West Midlands, and results are still being counted in Wales.

Here is our results tracker with the results so far.

And you can read our entire elections coverage here.

I’m afraid we’re having to launch with the comments turned off, but we should be able to turn them on later.

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