The Scottish National party is seeking assurances from EU member states that an independent Scotland could remain in the single market after Brexit – and senior SNP figures now believe a second referendum on independence could be held by autumn 2018, before the UK leaves the union.
The Scottish government believes the guarantee about the single market would ensure greater support for independence in a second referendum and are working to persuade member states to let them be treated as a continuing member of the EU.
Senior SNP figures believe the Brexit secretary, David Davis, will end up demanding a “hard Brexit” that will mean the UK will not remain part of the single market, and will implement some form of green card system to restrict EU citizens entering Britain.
The threat of losing single market membership would be enough of a “material change” to allow the SNP, led by Nicola Sturgeon, to call for a second independence referendum, the senior figures believe. She described a second referendum as “highly likely” on the morning after the Brexit vote.
If Westminster opted for a hard Brexit it would also be easier for Scottish politicians to persuade business of the virtues of Scotland remaining inside the EU.They are confident a second referendum would be backed by Holyrood, and then Theresa May would have no option but to grant the demand. Alex Salmond, the former Scottish first minister, is pushing for a referendum in 2018.
In an interview during the summer Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s chief Brexit negotiator, said there should be no obstacles to an independent Scotland being part of the EU, saying it would be “suicide” for the EU to refuse entry to people who are sympathetic to the EU’s aims.
The SNP plans to tell voters that if Scotland left the UK, it would remain part of the single market possibly via membership of the EEA, in the same way as Switzerland Norway and Lichtenstein. Such a move might serve as a staging post until Scotland can regain full EU membership.
SNP leaders are also confident that longstanding Spanish objections to any special treatment for Scotland, such as access to the single market, can be addressed. Spain has been fearful that if Scotland was treated as a continuing member of the EU, this would set a precedent for Catalonia. The Spanish government has repeatedly argued Catalonia would need to renegotiate the terms of its entry to the EU if it was independent.
Salmond has said the independence referendum would need to be held inside the timetable of Brexit. The SNP is demanding to be embedded in the Brexit talks, but May is eager to keep her negotiating demands secret for at least three months, and is wary of giving the Scottish government access to any private papers.
Prof Michael Keating, the director of the Economic and Social Research Council’s Centre on Constitutional Change, has warned that free trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK would end if one country was in the EU single market and the other was not.
He told MPs on the Commons Scottish affairs committee earlier this month: “There would be an economic barrier, a barrier to free movement, a barrier to goods and probably services as well ... there would be a cost to that.
“And the question would be is it more important to maintain access to the European single market or to the UK single market? We can’t have both. That’s a political judgment.”
A Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times and LBC puts support for independence on 48%, down four points from 52% in June in the aftermath of the EU vote but up three points on the 2014 referendum result.
Nearly half (46%) of Scots oppose a referendum in the next few years, 33% want a second referendum before Brexit negotiations have concluded and 21% want a rerun after the Brexit negotiations.
