Noise threatens to drown out the music at the 2020 Grammy awards. A line had been drawn under the tone-deaf leadership of Neil Portnow, who had presided over the ceremony since 2002 – between 2013 and 2018, Grammy winners were 91% male, but, after a 2018 ceremony where men swept the board again, Portnow said it was on women to “step up” and create opportunities for themselves.
A woman, Deborah Dugan, replaced him; a taskforce was appointed, and in December they published their report, calling for greater diversity in the Academy voters. Any hopes that they had moved on, though, were scotched last week by Dugan being suspended for alleged misconduct; Dugan countered by saying she had been sexually harassed, that the Academy had covered up an alleged rape by Portnow, and that the voting was corrupt.
So we go into this year’s ceremony more jaded than ever, but the irony is that, no matter how poisonous the Academy is and regardless of whether it is rigged or not, we ended up with a much more diverse range of nominees this year. Leading the pack are Lizzo with eight noms and Billie Eilish and Lil Nas X with six each – a vibrantly youthful and non-conformist trio. But will the Academy members shake off the past and vote for the future?
Record of the year
Bon Iver – Hey, Ma
Billie Eilish – Bad Guy
Ariana Grande – 7 Rings
HER – Hard Place
Khalid – Talk
Lil Nas X ft Billy Ray Cyrus – Old Town Road
Lizzo – Truth Hurts
Post Malone & Swae Lee – Sunflower
Aside from the merely pleasant HER and Khalid tracks, this is a strong field. While lots of eyes are on Lizzo and Eilish, this could perhaps be Ariana Grande’s year. It’s her first time with nominations in the big four categories rather than being patronised in the pop awards and, with its My Favourite Things melody, doddering Academy voters might listen to 7 Rings and say: ‘Hey, it’s one I know!’ Triumphant earworm Old Town Road is the longest-running No 1 in US history; Bad Guy is a showcase of the kind of fiendish genius usually employed by Hollywood horror movies to construct elaborate ways for teenagers to get killed. But an Academy eager to telegraph its modernity might go for Lizzo: Truth Hurts is a great underdog story, reaching No 1 two years after release, and her charisma is near universally infectious.
Will win: Lizzo – Truth Hurts
Should win: Billie Eilish – Bad Guy
Album of the year
Bon Iver – i, i
Lana Del Rey – Norman Fucking Rockwell!
Billie Eilish – When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?
Ariana Grande – Thank U, Next
HER – I Used to Know Her
Lil Nas X – 7
Lizzo – Cuz I Love You (Deluxe)
Vampire Weekend – Father of the Bride
This is Grande’s best chance of a big win. Thank U, Next is a superbly realised almost-concept album about heartache, grief and moving on that can be witty, even caustic, but never cruel – it sealed her as one of the three or four definitive pop stars of our time. Lizzo, HER and Lil Nas X are hampered with too much 6/10 material across their albums; Lana Del Rey was the critical hit of the year and will certainly beat out fellow Pitchfork darlings Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend, but may not cut through to the more august and mainstream Academy members. Eilish was the inescapable pop-cultural breakthrough of the year, and her album has such terrific range and invention. She will, hopefully, squeak this.
Will win: Billie Eilish
Should win: Billie Eilish
Song of the year
Lady Gaga – Always Remember Us This Way
Billie Eilish – Bad Guy
Tanya Tucker – Bring My Flowers Now
HER – Hard Place
Taylor Swift – Lover
Lana Del Rey – Norman Fucking Rockwell
Lewis Capaldi – Someone You Loved
Lizzo – Truth Hurts
Piano-driven ballads dominate the songwriting category, including Taylor Swift’s only big nomination. Lover is such classic American songcraft, though Lewis Capaldi’s powerful Someone Like You is the best of these ballads and it would be a British win to remember. Eilish is streets ahead in terms of songwriting innovation and should win for that “Duh!” alone. But, while Truth Hurts’ most famous lyric (“I just took a DNA test, turns out I’m 100% that bitch”) may have been plagiarised and its British author later added to the credits, Lizzo has this sewn up. The lyrics are hilarious, and it is a massively successful example of that new school of songwriting where a single melody is repeated over and over until the brainwashed public is involuntarily chanting it and then clawing hopelessly at their faces.
Will win: Lizzo – Truth Hurts
Should win: Billie Eilish – Bad Guy
New artist
Black Pumas
Billie Eilish
Lil Nas X
Lizzo
Maggie Rogers
Rosalía
Tank and the Bangas
Yola
Nice to see some country-soul curveballs here in the excellent Black Pumas and Yola, though the less said the better about the tune-free Tank and the Bangas – at any rate, they’re all making up the numbers. Maggie Rogers didn’t really break beyond her fanbase with her underrated debut album, and I’m sure the Academy will see Lil Nas X merely as a two-hit wonder. Lizzo’s debut album came out in 2013, whereas Eilish has only just turned 18 and feels like the rightful owner of this award. But you can bet than every Latinx voter is going to be going for the astoundingly talented Rosalía, who won big at the Latin Grammys and could cause an upset here.
Will win: Billie Eilish
Should win: Billie Eilish
Pop solo performance
Beyoncé – Spirit
Billie Eilish – Bad Guy
Ariana Grande – 7 Rings
Lizzo – Truth Hurts
Taylor Swift – You Need to Calm Down
Just as performances where you cry, shout and climb inside the carcass of a bear win you Oscars, the leading pop award rather behoves you to give it some welly – not for nothing has Adele won it three times. Eilish and Grande’s variously murmured and chatted performances will appear to the Academy like weirdo arthouse choices here, and even Swift is in a relatively conversational mode. Beyoncé’s ponderous Spirit was the lame old wildebeest eaten by the younger jackals on the Lion King soundtrack, so this is Lizzo’s to lose.
Will win: Lizzo
Should win: Billie Eilish
Rock performance
Bones UK – Pretty Waste
Gary Clark Jr – This Land
Brittany Howard – History Repeats
Karen O & Danger Mouse – Woman
Rival Sons – Too Bad
Anyone looking for evidence of backroom dealing in the Academy might well make Bones UK their exhibit A: Pretty Waste is the kind of creative vacuum beloved only of nihilistically cocaine-addicted LA music industry execs looking for something to soundtrack rock bottom. The rest is pretty good. Rival Sons’ riffs and hollering make them the most tangibly rock thing here – Karen O essays 60s pop, and Brittany Howard’s History Repeats is a kind of bluesy funk tune, but with mainstream rock stranded out on a sandbar while rappers and pop stars taunt it on jetskis, they need to blur the genre lines. Gary Clark Jr could edge this with his politically charged This Land, half-rapped over a heavily skanking backing.
Will win: Gary Clark Jr
Should win: Rival Sons
Rap performance
J Cole – Middle Child
DaBaby – Suge
Dreamville feat JID, Bas, J Cole, Earthgang & Young Nudy – Down Bad
Nipsey Hussle feat Roddy Ricch & Hit-Boy – Racks in the Middle
Offset feat Cardi B – Clout
Many voters’ hearts will go with Nipsey Hussle, whose murder last year robbed the world of a skilful, soulful MC who united backpacker hip-hoppers and mainstream rap fans. Racks in the Middle also features Roddy Rich, who has broken through spectacularly over the last year. But the track pales next to two others here: DaBaby’s Suge is a slowly prowling piece of minimalism that makes Offset sound fussily overworked in comparison; it’s ridiculous that DaBaby isn’t up for best new artist. He is rather damaged goods after a series of run-ins with the law, however. That could hand Middle Child the win, on which J Cole raps as if he’s high-stepping across the surface of a lake, his triplet time full of balletic grace.
Will win: J Cole
Should win: DaBaby
Country solo performance
Tyler Childers – All Your’n
Ashley McBryde – Girl Goin’ Nowhere
Willie Nelson – Ride Me Back Home
Blake Shelton – God’s Country
Tanya Tucker – Bring My Flowers Now
If you scoff at country, you’ll probably always scoff at country, but this spread of songs shows off the admirable breadth of the genre and may pique your interest yet. Willie Nelson’s song is a bit something-and-nothing; Tanya Tucker’s Bring My Flowers Now is nominated in the song of the year category, and its live-for-today message and simple piano backing will appeal across the Academy, but it’s rather workmanlike. Ashley McBryde outdoes her in the ballad stakes, but it’s Tyler Childers and Blake Shelton – both strongly channelling the gospel and soul music that not so secretly underpins country – who are the strongest here. Childers’ song would make for a classy first wedding dance, while Shelton’s stirring ode to proud Christian labour, while deeply unfashionable, will have you gazing soulfully across a cornfield.
Will win: Tanya Tucker
Should win: Tyler Childers
