This year's …
Midnight in Paris (duh). Allen's breakout blockbuster, after more than 40 years of trying, got him two Oscar nominations, of which he won one, best screenplay – his first since Hannah and Her Sisters in 1987.
But perhaps we should be looking for comparison at sophisticated American character dramas of recent vintage: The Sessions, say, or The Descendants.
What's it all about?
After her marriage to a sleazy investment banker-type (Alec Baldwin) melts down, a snooty trophy wife-type (Blanchett) heads to San Francisco to find houseroom with her considerably more down-to-earth sister (Hawkins). Cue much downing of antidepressants, china hitting the walls, and unnerving confrontations with hunky plumber types.
How did it happen?
Allen paused briefly in his globetrotting schedule to drop briefly into his home country to shoot this (only one of his last nine films, 2009's Whatever Works, was made in the US). As usual, Allen's sausage-machine style production set-up means he can play his cards pretty close to his chest; there's little obvious reason why he should have followed the cheesy tourist-postcard of To Rome with Love with this "serious drama". But with major-league actors still queuing up around the block, despite the variable quality of his recent output, Allen can cast pretty much who he likes. And he has.
Nominations it wants
Despite his auteur status, Oscar likes Allen pigeonholed firmly in the writer box: he's been nominated 15 times for best screenplay (winning three times), as opposed to seven for director (only one win, for Annie Hall). Perhaps his subdued, unflashy style counts against him. (As for acting, forgetaboutit: only one nom for Allen himself, for Annie again.) But Jasmine, if its box-office surge continues, is in for a shout across the board: best pic, actress and supporting actress as well as the usual ones for Allen.
What it might win
There's still a residual resentment towards Allen in Hollywood: not only does he still steer clear of awards night, but the teeny tiny social range of his characters is held to inhibit the impact of the drama – ie, who outside New York is interested? Allen's world tour has done something to address that – hence the recently impressive box office figures – and the Academy is sure to take note. Plus his status as a genuine American phenomenon of the old school; the tide could well turn his way in 2014, and he might actually win a few.
Reasons to fall for it
By all accounts, Blanchett's is a stupendous performance; and those a little nonplussed by Allen's readiness to take tourist-board dollar for tepid sit-commery will be relieved to see him returning to the wellspring that gave us the likes of Another Woman, Alice and Husbands and Wives.
Reasons it might fail
The residual resentment mentioned above. Moreover, Allen's films don't have a sense of occasion about them – like proverbial buses, you know there's another one along in a minute. Sustaining Oscar momentum could be tricky.
When can we see it?
It's already out in the US, with France (a big Allen territory) and the UK in late September.
In six words
Blue is not the warmest colour.
Read more
• Oscar predictions 2014: the full series
• First look review: Blue Jasmine
• Watch the trailer
