How has Cop26 shifted the dial on the climate crisis? A visual guide

Some progress has been made at Glasgow, but no major country’s pledges are yet in line with holding global heating to 1.5C

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Cop26 will close without even one major economy aligned with keeping global heating to 1.5C, according to the world’s most respected climate analysis coalition.

A study of 36 countries by Climate Action Tracker shows progress has been made at Glasgow, though not nearly enough to keep the world from dangerous levels of heating.

Major emitters such as Europe, the US and China have increased their ambition compared with two years ago, but their emissions-cutting pledges remain insufficient to reach the Paris agreement’s target.

Other nations, including Brazil, Australia, Saudi Arabia and Russia, remain so far off course that they are pushing the planet towards 4C above pre-industrial levels.

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The total effect of countries’ 2030 pledges and long-term targets will put the world on track for global heating of 2.1C by 2100.

This represents a step forward, albeit with caveats. When Climate Action Tracker began analysing the effects of targets and pledges in 2009, it estimated the world was on course for 3.5C of heating. By the time the Paris agreement was adopted in 2016, this had fallen to 2.8C.

After Donald Trump took power and began reversing US climate policies, the global outlook worsened to 3.2C. Advances at Glasgow, however, have taken it down to its lowest point, albeit still dangerously outside the Paris agreement targets, with time running out, and heavily dependent on long-term political promises that may or may not be fulfilled.

A stricter assessment, which looks only at the impacts of near-term 2030 targets, projects the world to be on course for a disastrous 2.4C of heating – a figure that made headlines earlier this week.

The impact of Glasgow will not be determined by these projections. If negotiators can agree on a final statement, it should oblige nations to take more ambitious actions. The only metric that matters is whether emissions start to fall in the next couple of years.

CAT forecast emissions over time

Methodology

Source: Climate Action Tracker and the World Bank. All EU countries are assessed collectively. India’s rating reflects India’s first NDC: if submitted, the announced NDC update would be rated “insufficient”. Brazil’s rating reflects Brazil’s first NDC: its updated NDC submitted on 31 October is not yet included in the CAT analysis.

  • The map in this article was amended on 25 November 2021 to properly distinguish Western Sahara from Morocco.

Contributors

Jonathan Watts, Pablo Gutiérrez, Ashley Kirk and Seán Clarke

The GuardianTramp

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