Paris climate conference: negotiators to work overnight for a deal – as it happened

All the big action is going to happen on Saturday, with negotiations now going through the night behind closed doors, so I’m going to wrap this liveblog up now.

Here’s the top of Suzanne Goldenberg’s news story on the state of play, which you’ll soon be able to read in full on our Paris climate talks coverage page.

See you tomorrow.

Barack Obama phoned the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, on Friday in a last ditch effort to prise open a climate change agreement that can be unveiled at the UN climate talks in Paris on Saturday.

As the negotiations ran into overtime – something that has happened at virtually every meeting of the last 20 years – Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister called for a cooling off period to allow more high level lobbying behind closed doors. Fabius put off planned public plenary sessions, which risk being volatile, and gave the floor over to closed meetings in a last push for an agreement.

The French hosts were still insisting they expected the final draft text – the skeleton of a climate change agreement – to be ready by Saturday when more peaceful protests are planned by climate activists across Paris. Civil society groups will hand out thousands of red tulips to represent red lines they say should not be crossed, and hold a rally under the Eiffel Tower if and when a deal is reached.

Laurent Fabius has reiterated hopes the text will be released at 9am on Saturday. He says the Paris Committee which he chairs will meet at noon, and the final plenary will be at 2pm.

Saudi Arabia has been awarded Fossil of the Day by climate campaigners, for being what they view as the most unprogressive country of the day. See Suzanne Goldenberg’s story here for more on the role of the Saudis.

Schellnhuber notes that while it’s welcome that 1.5C is mentioned in the draft, that document also needs a strong goal for how to get there. It doesn’t include one at the moment.

What I feel is insufficient in the current treaty is that if you say 1.5C then you need [to be] phasing out CO2 by the middle of this century. You need zero carbon emissions by 2050. If that would also appears in the text than I would be more than happy, and entitled to open a bottle of champagne at Champs Élysées.

John Schellnhuber (pictured centre below), a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research who advises Germany and the Vatican on climate change, says there is a scientific rationale for 1.5C being in the current Paris draft text.

I have been involved from the very beginning in the 2C target. It was sort of a surprise that the 1.5C came out here so strong in the text. Let’s face it, we are still a night away from the final treaty, but we can be pretty sure the 1.5C will be referred to clearly, like we are going to land planet Earth somewhere between 1.5C and 2C, hopefully very close to 1.5C.

There is a scientific rationale for that. When I have looked into tipping points of the climate system, you discover the real dangers start around 1.5C, 2C. We cannot provide you with that precision. We cannot say Greenland melts at 1.7C and then its irreversible but we can say we are entering the risk zone at 1.5C. That is same for the coral reefs [they are at risk after 1.5C].

In order to be on the safe side it is very wise to consider 1.5C as the right guardrail, given all the uncertainties from risk analyses.

The question of feasibility is a completely different thing.

Brazil joining a progressive alliance of countries here at the talks (see earlier) could be significant, Greenpeace suggests.

Here’s Martin Kaiser, the group’s head of international climate politics:

This move by Brazil could change the whole dynamic in the last closing hours of this conference.

We welcome that the High Ambition Coalition is championing the issues which are critical to the agreement - a temperature limit of 1.5C, a strong long term goal of decarbonisation, five-year cycles for reviewing climate actions and clear transparency rules.

Missing from the coalition were any of the major emerging economies. With this move, Brazil can become a bridge builder to the others.

Here’s a little video of that Greenpeace yellow paint stunt earlier (see 13:12):

Here are some more photographs from that civil society protest this afternoon at the summit:

Guardian blogger, Graham Readfearn, has been hearing from scientists on what they think of the current draft deal:

“We still have 24 hours to pull something stronger together,” said Kevin Anderson, deputy director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Manchester, England.

What was currently in the draft text of the new Paris deal was, according to Anderson, “somewhere between dangerous and deadly” for the most vulnerable nations in the world. Others would disagree.

All the scientists here do agree that a new global deal, now expected to be put up for agreement sometime on Saturday, needed to match the scientific realities of keeping global warming to well below 2C while aiming for 1.5C.

For that, the conclusions were simple. By the back end of the century, or perhaps much earlier, global greenhouse gas emissions needed to hit zero.

The deal, said the scientists, was a long way from perfect, but most seemed optimistic that it was a strong basis for improvement.

Read the full post on his blog, Planet Oz.

Tine Sundtoft, Norway’s environment minister, says:

All of us are now working hard to deliver a Paris agreement.

We expect it will be a historic turning point in international effort to tackle climate change.

There was a danger with the current state of the deal, she said, there is a “danger we lock in low ambition for decades”.

De Brum cites Brazil saying it joined the coalition because “if you want to tackle climate change you need ambition and political will”. For more on the coalition, which includes the EU, US, Canada, and some of the world’s most vulnerable countries, read this piece.

He says Iceland and Switzerland have also joined the coalition.

Of talks tonight, ahead of a new draft text tomorrow morning, he says: “Many of us were here until 4 or 5am this morning, if it takes that tonight we will do that again to make sure that ambition is protected.”

Obama has been hitting the phones to help a deal here in Paris, the White House says.

Following telephone calls earlier this week to India’s prime minister and the presidents of Brazil and France, last night he spoke with Xi Jinping, the Chinese president.

The White House says:

Both leaders agreed that the Paris conference presents a crucial opportunity to galvanize global efforts to meet the climate change challenge. They committed that their negotiating teams in Paris would continue to work closely together and with others to realize the vision of an ambitious climate agreement.

India’s environment minister, Prakash Javadekar, told me and other reporters:

We are very concerned about 7 billion people. We are here to declare our intention to walk a clean path.

The developed world is not showing flexibility. President Hollande has said if developed world does not show the spirit of accord, Paris success is not guaranteed.

It’s [the issues are] about differentation, equity, and climate justice.

The Paris summit marks the international debut of Canada’s new environment and climate change minister, Catherine McKenna, and the country’s rehabilitation after a decade in the doghouse for the previous government’s oil-heavy economic policy.

Canada was an early adopter among developed countries of the 1.5C temperature goal sought by low-lying and vulnerable states, and already pledged funds to reforest coastal mangroves destroyed in storms.

The Canadians were proud that McKenna was invited to join the team of facilitators helping Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, reach an agreement. McKenna said she felt that talks went well.

I am encouraged by the continued progress we made overnight. We’re seeing good cooperation around the table on many of the issues Canada has pushed for throughout the negotiations; for instance the commitment to ratcheting up our ambition every five years, and to transparency in each country’s reporting process. These are crucial to our long-term success.

We’re entering the home stretch now. I am hopeful the final days and hours will see all parties with me at the table and working together to conclude this agreement. And that this agreement will become a new pathway to a greener economy and a cleaner planet.

Climate campaigners here at the Paris negotiations are marching a ‘red line’ down the main thoroughfare of the conference centre.

“Civil society is drawing its own red lines: Emissions, Equity, Finance, Justice, and Compliance,” say organisers of the protest, in reference to governments’ red lines on the negotiations over the draft text here. The red lines are due to be taken out into the French capital on Saturday.

The deal is not even done, and some countries are already on damage control, circulating negotiators’ notes from marathon sessions overnight, hoping to show up their opponents.

In one negotiator’s version of a long and contentious night, oil producers Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Russia teamed up with big emitters China and India, as well as Malaysia, to try to strip out any references to 1.5C as a temperature goal.

Saudi Arabia in particular tried to water down the deal, blocking efforts for a mandatory review of emissions-cutting goals.

Other rising economies such as South Africa and Brazil won praise from the anonymous negotiator for holding fast to a strong deal. So did oil producer Nigeria.

Here’s the top of our latest news story on the state of play here at the Paris climate talks, which we’ve just published:

The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, has said the international climate talks that are edging towards a conclusion in Paris have been the most complicated and difficult negotiations he has ever been involved in.

Ban said that differences still remain among the nearly 200 governments searching for a climate deal in Paris but he urged negotiators to set aside their national interests to reach a compromise.

Some photo highlights from around the halls of Le Bourget today, from the US secretary of state, John Kerry, to a flashmob of campaigners and, seen from above, Ban Ki-moon (left) and Laurent Fabius, at the press briefing I reported earlier.

And elsewhere in the French capital, at the Arc de Triomphe, Greenpeace has been painting the roads with yellow ‘eco paint’, asking for fossil fuels to be phased out in favour of renewable energy.

ClimateHome, a Guardian Environment Network partner and climate news site that closely follows the UN talks, has procured a transcript of overnight discussions.

The site has rounded up countries’ concerns in a very useful guide. Here are some of the key ones, but do read the ClimateHome liveblog to see the full run-down.

EU

This is an ambitious outcome with stronger language But we’re unhappy with ‘invites’ in the mitigation aspect of the ‘decisions’ text, esp para 22, 23, 24. These must be replaced by ‘shall’

Aviation and shipping emissions are missing

China

References to voluntary ‘south south’ finance should be deleted

Not happy with concept of ‘climate neutrality’ (3.1)

Wants to see ‘global review’ (3.8) deleted

References to a ‘shared effort by all parties (6.2) in the finance section seek to “shift responsibilities” and must be deleted

India

Peaking of parties GHG emissions not acceptable, it should say ‘global emissions’ (3.1)

Five year review cycles are “a matter of choice”

Not happy with finance section… words developed should help “facilitating the mobilisation” of $ are not acceptable, it should just say ‘mobilise’

Finance and support should be scaled up

US

The document is already a ‘monument to differentiation’, all INDCs are different and no two are the same

Kyoto failed because it tried a one-size fits all, this is a new approach

This is *all* voluntary

Support 5 year cycles

Language in decisions text on mitigation needs to be stronger (change from invites to shall)

Support a long term goal and neutrality in the second half of the century

Prince Charles, who addressed the opening ceremony here at Le Bourget, said the floods caused by storms in northern England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland were a reminder of the need to tackle climate change.

Damian Carrington has the story:

“You can’t simply adapt to the ever-increasing, unprecedented levels of rainfall,” said Charles. “Already the flood defences erected after the last floods a few years ago have been overwhelmed.”

“So how long must we wait before we tackle the root cause of an accelerating economic, social and environmental disaster?” he asked. “How long before people who should know better stop lobbying against the only sane course and, instead, lobby to ‘rewire’ our whole unfit-for-purpose economy?”

Saudi Arabia dramatically stepped up its opposition to a key demand of low-lying and vulnerable countries to limit temperature rise to 1.5C in overnight negotiating sessions, according to observers.

Until Thursday night, the kingdom argued that the “science was not settled” on 1.5C – and that the United Nations climate science panel be tasked with carrying out a new study on a more ambitious temperature target.

That on its own was infuriating for vulnerable states – because it would push off a more ambitious temperature goal for several years. In addition, a UN-comissioned scientific report earlier this year found that 2C would almost certainly doom small islands and low-lying coastal states, and that 1.5C would indeed be a safer limit – which is why there has been such strong support for the more ambitious temperature target.

Overnight, however, Saudi Arabia went on the offensive demanding that if 1.5C stayed in the text in any form, then language recognising the special circumstances of low-lying and vulnerable states be stripped out in its entirety.

“When Saudi Arabia talks about adaptation, I cannot speak,” said Jahangir Hasan Masum, executive director of the Coastal Development Partnership, an NGO in Bangladesh working in low-lying areas vulnerable to cyclones. “I feel really disgusted talking about them because they are not serious for the planet. They are serious for their oil business and money and keeping their monarchy.”

Civil society groups tell me they’re planning a host of events in Paris on Saturday, including giving out 5,000 red tulips in the city to represent their ‘red lines’ in the draft text.

They also plan to meet in small groups across the capital, avoiding the authorities’ ban on major protests since the 13 November attacks, spelling out ‘Climate justice for peace’ from the air.

A rally is planned under the Eiffel Tower after a deal is reached - whenever that happens tomorrow. Campaigners say solidarity actions are also planned in other cities, including London, on Saturday.

One group, Avaaz, has also taken out a Force Awakens-inspired advert – can you match the world leaders to the Star Wars character?

We’ll also expecting some noise from green groups at the Le Bourget summit itself, at around 3pm today. More on that later.

Here’s a little summary of overnight reaction from NGOs and ministers to the latest draft. It’s fairly mixed:

Tony de Brum, foreign minister of the Marshall Islands:

This text is a good attempt to work through some of the options toward finding landing zones. It forces countries to fight for what they really need to see in the final agreement.

There is a clear recognition that the world must work towards limiting warming to below 1.5C, and that it would be much safer to do so. With this, I would be able to go home and tell my people that our chance for survival is not lost.

Read this piece by my colleague Karl Mathiesen to find out why the 1.5C aspiration is important.

Tasneem Essop, WWF’s head of delegation to the UN climate talks in Paris:

Critically, we could be closer to an agreement on a review of country pledges before 2020 [those are the ones I mentioned earlier], but the current 2019 timeframe leaves very little time for countries to enhance those pledges. They need to do it earlier.

There is still a lot of work ahead. There is a huge problem with the options for loss and damage in the current text. The current options provide no hope for people who will suffer the impacts of climate change the hardest.

Lucy Cadena, Friends of the Earth International climate justice and energy coordinator:

The pillars of a just agreement – ambition and equity – have been completely undermined. After all the warm words of developed countries on a 1.5C limit, the new text contains no obligation to stay under this threshold. Shockingly, the text could allow for carbon emissions to continue until 2099.

Cadena is referring to the long term goal on cutting emissions - the latest version of the text plumps for the woolliest language on that (more detail on that here).

The COP21 summit started in Paris nearly a fortnight ago. The challenge for world leaders was to put in place a legally binding agreement to tackle dangerous global warming, enshrining action beyond 2020, when governments’ current commitments run out.

Those talks have a deadline of Friday, and late on Thursday night the French foreign minister and president of the talks, Laurent Fabius, was maintaining the talks would finish as planned. “We must do this and we can do this … I think, dear friends, that we will make it,” he said.

But as meetings behind closed doors ran on through the early hours, he said: “I will not present the text Friday evening, as I had thought, but Saturday morning. There is still work to do. Things are going in the right direction.”

Here’s a recap of what’s happened so far:

• More than 180 countries have put forward plans on how, and by how much, they will cut and curb their carbon emissions in 2030.
• Around 150 world leaders arrived on the opening day of the summit, including Barack Obama, Narendra Modi, Xi Jinping, Angela Merkel and David Cameron, to give political momentum to the negotiations. It was hailed as a record number of leaders in one place on a single day.
• Three drafts of the agreement have been published so far, the first last Saturday with new versions appearing on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday night. The text has not only shrunk in size - a sign an agreement is nearing - but the amount marked in brackets (denoting disagreement) has come down dramatically.
• New money has been announced by several countries to help developing nations adapt to global warming, including the US doubling its existing $430m (£283m) budget for adaption by 2020, to $861m.

The latest version of the text is below; I’ll be liveblogging from Le Bourget in Paris bringing you all the latest twists and turns and, hopefully at some point in the next 36 hours, a deal.

Here’s our latest news story on the state of play at the summit. And if you want even more detail on the background to the Paris talks, read our at-a-glance guide.

Follow this blogpost for live news and updates from Paris. You can email me, tweet me or post below the line.