Weather forecasting has become an important factor in keeping the lights on. It also enables producers of power to match their output to times of peak demand and so command the highest prices, boosting profits. However, climate change is making the whole process much more difficult. Extreme weather events – high winds, heatwaves, freezing rain, and loss of glaciers and snow pack mean once reliable sources of power can fail.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says 87% of global electricity comes from nuclear, hydro and thermal fossil fuel plants that rely on water for cooling, and up to a third of these are in high water stress areas. Predicting droughts, stream flows and water availability is therefore vital for maintaining supply.
For solar and wind, where water is less of an issue, predicting wind strength and sunshine hours is key. In countries with highly variable weather, such as the UK, this is still a work in progress, although improving all the time. Partly, these problems can be mitigated by giant batteries and well-tried technologies, such as pump storage, where water is pumped back uphill at night for hydro-power production at peak times.
But even without Russia cutting gas flows to Europe, keeping power supplies stable in a changing climate is an increasing challenge everywhere.
