The fanfare at the launch of a general election tends to obscure the reality that Britain’s voting system involves hundreds of very particular local elections.
That constituency variation, combined with unusual volatility in party identification, makes the poll due on 12 December highly unpredictable. Brexit has shuffled conventional loyalties, forcing the Conservatives in particular to seek support on unfamiliar terms. A recent report by the Conservative thinktank Onward identifies “rugby league towns” – places such as Workington, Warrington and Wakefield – as the arena for a new type of political contest. These are places weighed down by economic and social insecurity. They voted leave in 2016 and Labour a year later. Conventional Thatcherite Toryism, preaching liberation through individual enterprise, has little purchase there. But Boris Johnson needs to advance on that front to compensate for a pro-EU migration to the Liberal Democrats in seats that used to be comfortably Tory.
Meanwhile, Labour hope to woo remainers in cities and university towns without alienating pro-Brexit voters in their heartland seats who might defect to the Tories, or Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. Jeremy Corbyn’s method is to campaign on non-European issues: economic fairness; funding for public services. That might be a viable strategy given voter fatigue with all things Brexit and the salience of more local concerns. But Labour must also overcome Mr Corbyn’s dismal personal ratings. Doubt about the leader’s fitness for office haunts some of the party’s MPs.
No party can take anyone’s vote for granted. It is almost certain that conventional wisdom in some area or other will be upended in December. What is often described as national volatility expresses the inadequacy of national narratives in describing Britain. This is not a new phenomenon, but political fragmentation seems to be accelerating. It is matched by economic divergence. While the UK economy as a whole has grown consistently over the past decade, data from the Office for National Statistics show that the north-east and south-west of England, for example, have experienced three recessions during that period. It is hardly surprising that politics as broadcast from Westminster sounds in some parts of the country like a signal from an alien planet.
Campaign strategists try to compensate by using data analysis to customise messages, which can then be fed to the target’s computer screen. That can be an effective mobilising technique, but it is no substitute for cultivating support by delivering real benefits for people and their communities. Those allegiances have frayed in many places over many years. The coming election will reveal quite how drastically the electoral geography of the country needs to be redrawn. Whatever the outcome, it will require humility from all parties in recognising that none of them alone can plausibly claim to speak for the nation.
