Over thousands of years, like humans everywhere, we became used to thinking of the sun, rain and wind as the backdrop to our lives – external entities over which we had no dominion. In the 21st century, this has become a delusion. The unpredictability of weather in the UK, particularly during summers that many wish were drier and sunnier, is associated by many people with what it means to be British. It has big variations – temperatures in the north of Scotland can be up to 20C lower than in southern England – and is characteristically unsettled due to the jet stream.
Its unreliability may have aided those wishing to avoid the truth about global warming. But the evidence of our senses, as well as what meteorologists and other scientists tell us, is becoming overwhelming. While many people are enjoying this week’s record-breaking temperatures – 20.3C in Wales on Monday, and 21.2C in London on Tuesday, the hottest winter days on record – many of the same people are also worried. Extreme or unusual weather in the UK is becoming widely recognised as an indication that the climate is changing, though this realisation has been a long time coming.
That is understandable. Connections between one-off weather events and longer-term patterns must be drawn with caution. Greenhouse gas emissions do not explain everything. But over the past few years, the science of weather attribution has made dramatic advances. Using computer models combined with observational data, meteorologists can now analyse extreme events including floods, droughts and heatwaves to determine the contribution of manmade climate change. Last summer’s UK heatwave, when average temperatures in June, July and August were 2C above pre-industrial levels, was made 30 times more likely by greenhouse gases.
Simply facing this reality as a nation would be a big step forward. For too long, and in defiance of evidence, climate deniers such as former chancellor Lord Lawson were offered prominent platforms to air their views without challenge. Partly as a consequence of such mixed messages, public opinion lags behind scientific knowledge. Recent survey data shows that while 93% of British people know climate change is happening, only 36% believe that humans are mainly responsible, while just 25% describe themselves as very worried. It is too soon to say whether this month’s unseasonal warmth, following last year’s extremes of cold and hot, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s warning that we have just 12 years in which to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C will shift minds further in the right direction.
International cooperation remains the key to averting a global catastrophe. Next year’s US presidential election will be a crucial moment, with President Trump committed to withdrawing the world’s second-biggest carbon emitter from the Paris climate change agreement. But the UK too has a vital role to play, either within or outside the EU. As our heating planet turns from a threat into an emergency, with emissions still increasing, we must reject passivity in favour of action. Climate change won’t affect the UK as severely as it will poorer countries, or those more vulnerable to desertification or flooding. Our target of 80% reductions in greenhouse gases by 2050 is already more ambitious than many comparable countries. But the government should be far more active in advancing public understanding. It is no longer permissible to pretend that ice-creams in February are a quirk of nature.