Voters in nearly half of England’s local councils, including the London boroughs and the other biggest cities, will go to the polls on Thursday. Few expect the Conservatives to do well. This certainly includes the Tories themselves, who are busy managing expectations down to floor level, so that almost any victories can be presented as an unexpectedly positive evening.
Perhaps surprisingly, Labour is also trying to dampen expectations. Many of these councils were last elected in 2014, a decent year for Labour; and both main parties are unsure how the Ukip vote is likely to be redistributed. Four years ago, Ukip’s estimated share of the national vote was 17%. This year it will be well under half that.
There are plenty of genuine reasons for Tory pessimism and plenty of reasons why it is well deserved. Theresa May’s government has never recovered from last year’s disastrous general election reverse. Brexit has split the electorate and frightened and energised voters on both sides. Last week’s quarterly growth figures were poor. Austerity continues more balefully than ever: the Tories hijacked devolution to palm off responsibility for cuts on local councils, while keeping the power to make policy. They should not escape responsibility for the evisceration of libraries, youth clubs, social care and bus routes. The Windrush scandal has laid bare levels of heartlessness and incompetence that on their own provide ample incentive for voters to kick the government. Amber Rudd must return to parliament on Monday after further revelations in the Guardian about her role in and knowledge of the “hostile environment” and targets for the removal of illegal migrants. The home secretary’s job hangs on her performance; Thursday’s polls may feel its effects too.
Local elections are always difficult for the party in power and this week’s have almost every hallmark of a classic case. The Tories have been in charge for eight years now. England in 2018 is the country that they have made and they alone. At such times, voters can feel it is time to remind the governing party of who is in charge. Thursday is such a moment, and rightly so.
For the same reason, however, midterm local elections are not always the most reliable guide to what the national mood might be in a general election. For one thing, voters are often more pro-Labour in local contests than in national ones. For another, Thursday offers a particularly juicy free kick: Since Jeremy Corbyn will not become prime minister next weekend, the Tories cannot use the kind of scare tactics and smears that they will undoubtedly use when the time comes. By the same token, however, Labour gains and Tory losses on Thursday night may not point reliably to the deeper mood.
Many experts are predicting that this will also be an election of two halves. Labour will want to drive forward its 2017 successes in London, and there are good reasons to think it can do so. Labour’s chances seem particularly strong in inner-London boroughs. But Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet (where the antisemitism issue will be closely watched) will clearly be pivotal contests, along with the Lib Dem-Tory tussles in Kingston and Richmond. Given the importance of Brexit to the capital, and the anti-Brexit instincts of key groups in London, this is a huge opportunity to put the squeeze on Mrs May and the Brexiters. The elections outside London may be rather different and less spectacular. But Birmingham should be watched with special care: a reduction in the number of seats on the council makes this swing city even less predictable than usual.
There are no elections this year in Scotland, pivotal to the chances of a Corbyn government, or in Wales, where the resignation of the first minister Carwyn Jones has begun a period of Labour introspection. Turnout on Thursday may be low in contests that lack the passions of 2016 and 2017. Nevertheless, these are the last major tests of the public mood before a possible Brexit. As Britain staggers towards an unknown future, it is vital that voters do not do anything to assist Mrs May in her damaging aim of effecting a hard Brexit. That means supporting the candidates best placed to beat the party of Brexit, which in most places means voting Labour.
