What we learned this Wednesday 7 October

That’s where I will leave you for tonight. Thanks as always for reading. Amy Remeikis will be back with you tomorrow. Here’s what we learned today:

  • Victoria reported six new Covid-19 cases and two deaths in the past 24 hours. The premier, Daniel Andrews, said he was confident that an outbreak in the suburb of Chadstone was under control, but that “you can only know what you know. We can’t say what comes in tomorrow’s testing or the day after”.
  • In New South Wales, three new cases of community transmission were reported. The cases, in Sydney’s west and south-west, were the first in almost two weeks. The cases do not appear to be linked, and the premier, Gladys Berejiklian, said it was concerning but not unexpected. “Our suspicions that the virus is always lurking in the community are founded,” she said. “And we wouldn’t have said that if we didn’t mean it.”
  • Berejiklian also urged the Queensland government not to reset the clock on opening the border between the two states. The Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, has said she will lift the border closure only after 28 days without community transmission in NSW.
  • In the budget washup, Labor confirmed it would support the federal government’s second tranche of tax cuts while the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, said Covid-19 would see the budget deficit reach $213.7bn this year.
  • The crucial crossbench senator Jacqui Lambie said she wanted to see more funding for social housing in the budget.
  • Etihad Airways has announced it will stop all flights to Brisbane because the route is commercially unviable.

Updated

Budget 2020. As horrid as you might imagine. I yell about it so you don’t have to. https://t.co/JY2UMkCjHn

— F Onthemoon (@firstdogonmoon) October 7, 2020

Etihad Airways has announced it will stop all flights to Brisbane because the route is commercially unviable, as Australia continues to limit the number of passengers airlines can bring into the country. My colleague Elias Visontay reports:

Our new US election briefing, written by the peerless Josephine Tovey, is out. If you haven’t yet subscribed, I can highly recommend it as the best way to seem smarter and better-informed than your friends and family on what is A Very Important Election:

Queensland’s deputy premier, Steven Miles, says the government is “still on track” to reopen its border with New South Wales next month, despite three new mystery cases in Sydney’s west today.

But Miles said at a press conference this afternoon that reopening the border could depend on whether contact tracers in NSW can link the cases to an existing cluster.

The Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, said earlier today that the state was still sticking to its plan to open the border only if NSW recorded 28 days of zero community transmission.

Miles said that if the cases could be traced to an existing cluster, it would mean Queensland’s border would be on track to reopen on 1 November, but warned that could change.

The contact tracers in NSW will have 48 hours to see if they can scientifically link these cases to existing clusters, I really hope that they can” he said.

If they can that won’t have any effect on our timeline. As far as we know, for now, we are still on track for that review toward the end of the month.

Updated

Avoided reading any budget coverage because federal politics in Australia sparks a sort of open-ended dread and despair inside of you that feels kind of the same as what you imagine being stuck alone in the depths of a gaping desert crevasse in the dead of night might be like? Nah, me neither, ha ha! But if you do need to catch up, I recommend this quick summary of the key points:

Updated

Good afternoon! Thanks as always to Amy Remeikis for her efforts.

The president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Michele O’Neil, is speaking on the ABC right now, explaining why she’s opposing the government’s proposed tax cuts.

What I’m saying is we don’t think tax cuts are the right measure, at the moment. Because we’ve sort of learnt a lot over the pandemic and we’ve also learnt a lot from the bushfires before the pandemic, which is we really need to invest in good-quality public services. We need to make sure that the money is there so that we’ve got a great healthcare system, we’ve got emergency care responses, that we do something about aged care.

People need to know that our taxpayers’ money is going to deliver the support and services they need when they’re in a crisis, but also in their day-to-day lives. Things like Medicare, things like making sure that we have a good education and health system. So a better way to increase the number of jobs that are created is to put money into those things. And it is also a fairer system because everyone benefits, not just those at the top.

Updated

On that note, I am going to hand over to Michael McGowan for the rest of the afternoon.

I’ll be back tomorrow to cover the budget in reply and other political goings-on.

Thank you so much for joining me today, and for your messages – I truly appreciate it.

I’ll speak with you tomorrow. In the meantime, take care of you.

Updated

Asked about the jobseeker rate after December, when it is scheduled to revert to the old rate, Morrison tells 2GB: "We want to be able to make that decision closer to the time ... when we've got better information."

— Daniel Hurst (@danielhurstbne) October 7, 2020

Pauline Hanson has many, many feelpinions and just the platform to let them out.

SENATOR HANSON #BUDGET2020 RESPONSE

"It’s a shame that the government, with COVID-19, got out there and said we need to change our industries and manufacturing productivity here in Australia but they showed nothing of it in the budget."

FULL SPEECH: https://t.co/k8TeEs2Eln pic.twitter.com/jHAZL6HTsW

— Pauline Hanson 🇦🇺 (@PaulineHansonOz) October 7, 2020

Jacqui Lambie wants more for social housing in budget

Jacqui Lambie is now giving her view on the budget – she wants more done for social housing.

She tells the ABC’s Afternoon Briefing:

There is plenty of homelessness out there. It is a great way to stimulate the economy. It is a great way to get jobs out there. You talk about having apprentices, they’ve got to be building something along the way. And of course it comes down to Tafes, they have no money either and they’re depleted.

If you want to stimulate an economy where plenty of construction workers out of job, it is the way to do it. Go and wipe the public housing debts for people that need it, for the states that need it.

Updated

Q: Are you worried that the focus on younger workers in the budget could lead to more older Australians becoming homeless?

Jason Clare:

Well, look, we support wage subsidies. We called for the jobkeeper program and it’s of course that the economy needs more help. As I pointed out a minute ago, you have still going up – unemployment still going up.

We got told in the budget that unemployment are still be higher in four years’ time than it was at the start of the year. But it is important you build a wage subsidy correctly. I am worried if you’re in your 40s, 50s and are on jobkeeper now. Come March, you’ll lose that and you might be back on jobseeker and then you’re competing for jobs with people who are under 35, who have a subsidy there. We have to look carefully at that.

Q: Labor wants the subsidy extended to older workers. Of course that costs more. The government’s is targeted to those under 35. Have you modelled your model?

Clare:

Be clear about what I said. We want more detail on what that means. History tells me we should be careful here.

My old man lost his job in the recession in the 90s. I still remember his eyes as he walked in the door telling Mum and my brother he lost his job. I became the main breadwinner there, at Sizzler.

He was lucky, he got another job. But a lot of his mates in western Sydney didn’t get another full-time job again. Let’s make sure we look after all Australians. Young Australians have been hit hard. Women have been affected by what’s happened over the last six months extraordinarily hard. By we’ve also got to make sure that we don’t forget people in their 40s, 50s, 60s and their 70s.

Updated

Jason Clare is on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing, where he is asked about Labor’s social housing idea, which will form part of the opposition’s budget in reply speech tomorrow:

Q: How many social housing homes would a Labor government construct?

Clare:

We said today the focus now, right now, in the depths of a recession should be repairing existing social housing.

It is what we did in the GFC. We repaired about 80,000 social housing dwellings.

This is the sort of thing we could do really quickly. You could have people on the tools repairing social housing dwellings in three weeks, that’s what I was told, repairing everything from rot, to mould, repairs really quickly. In every town, big or small, suburbs right across the country. Why we said to the government today, “You can do this.”

It is not just us though.

The Masters Builders Association, the HIA, all the housing groups say this is what we should be doing – not because they’re desperate to end homelessness but they’re worried about their members and tradies across the country running out of work. We had economists say the same thing last week, about 49 were surveyed. They said the top thing would be to invest in social housing because you can do it quickly and every dollar you spend on building or repairing a house means $3 in the economy.

Updated

Spoiler – it’s a barbecue and giant democracy sausage.

The AEC and MoAD are working together to establish a new permanent education exhibition at Old Parliament House that celebrates the nation’s democracy. We look forward to welcoming you to the new exhibition when complete https://t.co/XZHNRci2Fb #auspol pic.twitter.com/mhy05hnr1Z

— AEC ✏️ (@AusElectoralCom) October 7, 2020

Updated

Mike Bowers was in the chamber for question time:

Updated

If there is one group who is really, really unhappy with the budget, it is the IPA.

Yup.

Here is today’s release, where it is predicting a $2 trillion debt by 2045:

Modelling by the free market thinktank the Institute of Public Affairs, based on data from the Commonwealth government budget and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, estimates that:

  • Gross commonwealth government debt will peak at $2.05 trillion in 2045.
  • Gross commonwealth government debt will not be paid off until the year 2080.
  • A budget surplus will not return until 2046.

For the purposes of comparison, Australia’s current annual gross domestic Product (GDP) – which measures the value of all goods and services produced – is approximately $1.9 trillion.

The IPA modelled two scenarios. The first scenario is based on the aggressively optimistic economic growth and budget deficit reduction assumptions contained in the commonwealth budget released last night, while the second scenario provides a more realistic scenario of lower GDP growth and a slow path back to a budget surplus.

Cian Hussey, research fellow at the IPA, said:

The devastating lockdown measures have caused a humanitarian tragedy, and the debt Australia has gone into to pay for them will last generations.

Scenario 1

  • Nominal GDP growth of 5%, as assumed in the budget from 2023-24.
  • Return to surplus 2038-39 based on deficits falling at a constant rate of nominal GDP as forecast in the budget.
  • Gross debt peaking at $1.92 trillion in 2037-38.
  • Surpluses stabilising at 1% of nominal GDP by 2043-44. This is equivalent to the average surplus as a percentage of nominal GDP under Howard and Costello.
  • Gross debt paid off in 2062-63.

Scenario 2

  • Long-term nominal GDP growth of 3%.
  • Return to surplus 2045-46 based on a slower rate of declining deficits.
  • Gross debt peaking at $2.05 trillion in 2044-45.
  • Surpluses stabilising at 1% of nominal GDP by 2051-52. This is equivalent to the average surplus as a percentage of nominal GDP under Howard and Costello.
  • Gross debt paid off in 2079-80.

Scenario 2 is more realistic as it assumes that the Australian economy will grow at a more modest rate post-Covid-19. Research and analysis by the Institute of Public Affairs has demonstrated how the lockdowns have permanently distorted the Australian economy through the disproportionate impact they have had on jobs, young Australians, small businesses and the self-employed.

Consequently, the Australian economy is likely to have a much larger public service, a smaller private sector, and for larger businesses to account for a greater share of employment and output than in the past. This will lead to a less dynamic economy, with slower long-run economic growth.

Updated

This will really be a recurring theme.

Why has the Morrison Government left women out of the Budget? pic.twitter.com/tt0vMA2nHJ

— 💚🌏 Sarah Hanson-Young (@sarahinthesen8) October 7, 2020

Updated

Speaking of the opposition leader, he has just been announced as the special one-on-one guest for Q&A next Monday.

So when Anthony Albanese said Labor would be changing track, it turns out he meant go full-on attack.

It is standard for a prime minister to defer questions to a portfolio minister – sometimes when they don’t want to be associated with the answer and sometimes when they just don’t have the information at hand.

But now we are getting this:

We asked the Prime Minister why his Budget had no new support for childcare at a time when families are struggling more than ever.

He refused to even answer. pic.twitter.com/dJHGv45w8G

— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) October 7, 2020

Updated

The most likely thing which will happen with the tax cuts is you’ll get the new rate from the moment this all goes through, and anything owed to you from 1 July will come next year in the tax return.

Further to my tweet from a couple of hours ago. Dear ATO, we support the tax cuts. Yours sincerely, Labor #auspol #qt@AmyRemeikispic.twitter.com/HSvAuu4Hsn

— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) October 7, 2020

Updated

Victoria Health has put out its update as well:

Testing is continuing in response to the Chadstone shopping centre outbreak and a related outbreak at the Oddfellows Cafe in Kilmore.

We’ve seen how quickly this virus can spread throughout the community with tragic consequences and it is critical that we continue to limit the movement of people across the state to slow the spread of the virus.

If you have symptoms no matter how mild, get tested. We all have a responsibility to do what we can to stop this outbreak from getting any bigger.

Anyone who visited Chadstone shopping centre between 23 September and 1 October should get tested – even if they have the mildest of symptoms. Testing is available at Chadstone car park drive through – level 2, Chadstone carpark, outside Coles, and a walk-in clinic is open for staff only at Central Amenities on the ground level between MJ Bale and Marimekko. Both sites are open from 12-8pm today.

Anyone who visited Oddfellows Cafe in Kilmore between 30 September and 3 October are classified as potential close contacts and should come forward for testing, even if you don’t have any symptoms at all. Testing has been set up at the Kilmore and District Hospital from 9am-5pm and Kilmore Soldiers Memorial Hall pop-up testing site from 10am-6pm today. There are currently more than 230 people isolating in Kilmore following cases linked to the Oddfellows Cafe.

Victoria has recorded six new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,237.

The overall total has increased by four due to two cases being reclassified.

Four of today’s new cases have linked to known outbreaks – two linked to the Chadstone shopping centre outbreak, one linked to a Dandenong household outbreak and one linked to aged care. The other two cases remain under investigation.

Of today’s six new cases, there are two cases in Glen Eira and Whitehorse and single cases in Banyule and Greater Dandenong.

There have been two new deaths from Covid-19 reported since yesterday: one woman in her 80s and one man in his 90s. One of the two deaths occurred prior to yesterday.

Both of today’s deaths are linked to a known aged care facility outbreak. To date, 809 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

The average number of cases diagnosed in the last 14 days (23 Sep to 6 Oct) for metropolitan Melbourne is 9.9 and regional Victoria is 0.3. The rolling daily average case number is calculated by averaging out the number of new cases over the past 14 days.

The total number of cases from an unknown source in the last 14 days (21 Sep to 4 Oct) is 12 for metropolitan Melbourne and zero for regional Victoria. The 14-day period for the source of acquisition data ends 48 hours earlier than the 14-day period used to calculate the new case average due to the time required to fully investigate a case and assign its mode of acquisition.

Updated

NSW Health has put out its official release, detailing information on where those new cases are coming from:

NSW Health is alerting the public to the following locations visited by confirmed cases of Covid-19.

As outlined today, three new cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in south-west Sydney. All three cases are under investigation, with contact tracing underway.

People who attended the Fitness First Carlingford pilates class on Saturday 3 October from 8.15am to 9.15am are considered close contacts and must immediately get tested and isolate for 14 days since they were there, and stay isolated for the entire period, even if a negative test result is received. NSW Health is directly contacting those who attended.

NSW Health is assessing potential exposure to Covid-19 of people who attended several other venues. Anyone who attended the following venues is considered casual contacts and should immediately isolate and get tested even if they develop the slightest symptoms of Covid-19.

  • Friday 2 October: Kmart, Narellan town centre, Narellan – 6-7pm
  • Saturday 3 October: Fitness First, Carlingford (all attendees other than those in the pilates class notified above) – 8-9.15am
  • Sunday 4 October: Penrith Homemaker Centre, Penrith – 11am-1pm
  • Sunday 4 October: Guzman y Gomez, Penrith – 1.30-2pm
  • Sunday 4 October: Home Co, Penrith – 2-2.30pm
  • Monday 5 October: Westfield Parramatta – 9.30-11am
  • Monday 5 October: Castle Towers shopping centre, Castle Hill – 12-1pm

Updated

Back to information that doesn’t make my earballs bleed.

Updated

Question time is still going, but I have lost my will to live listening to it today.

The answers can all be found in the press releases today.

Fiona Phillips to Scott Morrison:

Can the prime minister confirm that last year, the Morrison government announced an annual $200 million recovery and mitigation fund to help communities across Australia prepare for and recover from natural disasters? The next fire season is upon us, and not a single dollar has been spent. Why is this prime minister always there for the photo op and never there for the follow-up?

David Littleproud gets this one.

Thank you, Mr Speaker. And I thank the member for Gilmore for her questions. And yes, there was a fund created. And part of that fund was to provide funding in two tranches.

One, through $150 million to be able to be spent on rebuilding infrastructure. That hasn’t been used, because we have created a $2 billion fund in which to rebuild the infrastructure that was devastated by these fires.

That was predicated on the advice of the director general of Emergency Management Australia.

They didn’t believe that it was worth doing that, because we had created this other mechanism in which to do that, and to give a perfect example, the electorate of Gilmore itself received nearly $139 million already in direct relief. With respect to the $50 million that is there for resilience building, the director general of Emergency Management Australia is taking submissions and, in fact, is about to provide me with some of those programs.

And in fact, I had a conversation with the member for Eden-Monaro only last week about putting forward projects that her community may benefit. This is above politics. This is about people. And the people’s lives are impacted. We need to make sure that we understand the trauma that these people went through, and they are at different stages of recovery.

We need to allow them and their communities to decide what that recovery looks like, what resilience looks like into the future. To rush that isn’t about making sure this is a locally led recovery. This means it will be a Canberra-led recovery.

So we’ll continue to engage with communities, with members from both sides of the aisle, in a constructive way in rebuilding the lives and livelihoods of those Australians that were destroyed through this bushfire season. We’ll do that in a calm, methodical way, using Australian taxpayers’ money in the most effective way.

Updated

A quick factcheck on the home care packages Scott Morrison mentioned there – there are 100,000 Australians on the home care wait list.

And those 23,000 places *are* new, but they are spread out over four years, according to the budget papers.

That’s not going to do a lot to address that waiting list.

Updated

Ged Kearney to Scott Morrison:

Over the past three years, 30,000 Australians died waiting for approved home care packages to be delivered. There are 102,000 Australians on the home care waiting list. How on earth with can the government rack up $1 trillion of Liberal debt but only announce an average of 6,000 home care places a year over the next four years?

Morrison:

Thank you, Mr Speaker, and I thank the member for Cooper for her question because it gives me the opportunity, as the treasurer said last night, to remind the House that, when we came to there were 60,000 in-home care places, in the single largest increase in home care last night, that figure is now over 180,000.

Over the course of our government, we have tripled the number of in-home aged care places in this country, and 97% of those, Mr Speaker, who are seeking aged care places in their home are already either receiving a home-care aged care place, or some other form of in-home support, Mr Speaker.

Mr Speaker, as the Treasurer made it very clear last night, we are awaiting the recommendation of the royal commission into the aged care sector, where we have been very clear that we’ll be making a comprehensive response to those recommendations, and that will be done most likely in the course of next year’s budget, if not sooner, Mr Speaker.

What we can say, though, is that we have delivered $1.5 billion of additional support into the aged care sector through the course of this pandemic. And on top of that, in response to the initial repor – the interim report, I should say – of the royal commission, that called for more aged care places, and that called for a number of other actions, Mr Speaker, we responded to all of those last year.

And here in this budget, we said we would respond again – and we have. We have tripled the number of in-home aged care places in this country with an additional 23,000 last night, Mr Speaker.

Those opposite don’t seem to understand that, in aged care, you could fund, but you have to be able to ensure that those places can be delivered by the sector itself. And Mr Speaker, we understand that.

And we need to ensure that proper care is paid to those who are receiving those in-home aged care places. And we’re not going to go down the reckless path that those opposite pursued when they were in government, throwing money around with no thought to the consequences of how they implement it, Mr Speaker ...

That was the record of those opposite, who speak today, Mr Speaker, about putting a roof over people’s heads. Well, the last time the Labor party put money into people’s roofs, they set them alight, Mr Speaker. They set them alight.

Tony Burke:

Mr Speaker, we’ve had this misinformation every day from the prime minister. His own royal commission found that’s not true.

Morrison:

The full and comprehensive response that we will provide to the royal commission aged care will not only deal with the tripling of in-home aged care places we have already delivered, but we will also deal with the many other issues raised in the royal commission, as we indicated last night.

We look forward to receiving that report. We’ve already responded to all of the recommendations in both the interim report and the report provided by the aged care royal commission, and we’ll continue to respond as the royal commission makes its recommendations.

Updated

Amanda Rishworth to Scott Morrison:

Why has the government racked up $1 trillion of Liberal debt but refused to provide additional support for childcare, leaving behind mums and dads trying to get back into the workforce?

Dan Tehan gets this one, and basically announces there is plenty for childcare in the budget, as the government has not abolished the childcare subsidy. The funding he references here? It’s mostly the childcare subsidy, which is already in place, with some top up of support for Victoria. (The big figure is the total package – but there is nothing new here.)

Tehan:

Thanks, Mr Speaker. I’d like to thank the member for her question, because it enables me to detail what was in the budget for the childcare sector.

There is a record $9.2 billion worth of funding for the childcare sector and, importantly – and this seems to have been completely overlooked – there was $900 million of additional funding for the childcare sector to support them through the pandemic. $900 million of additional funding.

And you know what that led to? That led to 99% of all childcare providers remaining viable throughout the pandemic, providing those services to those on the front line during the pandemic – those nurses, those doctors in particular.

And I say this on behalf of all those members here in the House, because I’m sure this is one thing we will all agree on, I thank those members who were on the front line when it comes to providing the important services by keeping those childcare service providers open. There were a majority of women who were servicing those childcare providers, providing that support.

We back them with $900 million of additional funding. And what has that meant? Because those opposite often say: OK, what did this lead to? Well, what have our reforms led to? CPI data shows that our changes, on average across the country, have delivered real savings to families by reducing out-of-pocket costs by 3.2% from July 2018 to March 2020.

We’ve seen out-of-pocket costs go down under our childcare reforms. And we will continue to provide the support that the sector needs; $900 million of additional funding to help them through the pandemic. A record $9.2 billion in this budget to support the childcare sector throughout this year.

Updated

So many women!

Julie Collins:

The burden of the Morrison recession has disproportionately fallen on women, but announcements in the prime minister’s women’s economic statement totalled 0.024% of the $1 trillion Liberal debt. Why is this government leaving Australian women behind in this budget?

Scott Morrison:

Thank you, Mr Speaker. I thank the member for her question. I refer her to the answer that I just gave. Because understand this government, Mr Speaker – under this government – we have seen 60% of the jobs that have come back since the hit of the Covid-19 recession go to women, Mr Speaker.

[That’s because women lost more of the jobs.]

What we’ve seen is this government’s investment in women getting jobs, because we’re investing in an economy that can create jobs. Mr Speaker, women will be seeking jobs in manufacturing industries. They’ll be seeking jobs in the agricultural industry. They’ll be seeking jobs right across the economy. But this budget, above all, is a budget for all Australian; all Australians who are dealing with the challenge of the biggest global recession that we have seen since the second world war.

These facts may escape the leader of the opposition and the members opposite, Mr Speaker, as they go on about whether there are embarrassing reviews, Mr Speaker.

But honestly, we’re trying to get as many women in work as we possibly can. And we’re well on the road to doing that.

And the women’s economic security statement is our second economic security statement for women, Mr Speaker.

The first one – delivered by the former minister for women, Kelly O’Dwyer – and this one, delivered by senator Marise Payne, the minister for foreign affairs and the minister for women. Mr Speaker, our plan for women is ensuring that they do get back into jobs.

[The statement was brought back after a very big fight from Kelly O’Dwyer, after Tony Abbott, a former minister for women, scrapped it.]

That the businesses that they may have had to close get to reopen. That the businesses that are going to employ more Australians are able to employ more Australians. And the tax that they pay will be less, Mr Speaker.

And as all Australian families sit around the table at home, they will have woken up this morning with an even greater sense of confidence, a sense of confidence knowing that this government has their back, including women, Mr Speaker, because women are part of an increasing part of our labour force. And they will continue to grow in our labour force because of the skills and the attainment that they are being able to achieve.

Under this government, the gender pay gap got to its lowest level. Under this government, the labour force participation of women got to its highest level, Mr Speaker. That is what we will continue to pursue through the many policies that are outlined in this budget.

Updated

Ugh.

Scott Morrison has binders full of women.

Asked why the budget sucks for women, Morrison is so incensed he almost starts handing out tampons.

Q: I refer to the fact that the burden of the Morrison recession has disproportionately fallen on women. Why is the government racking up $1 trillion of Liberal debt without a plan to support the participation of women in the workforce? Why has the prime minister left women behind in this budget?

Morrison:

Everything the leader of the opposition – unsurprisingly – has just said is untrue. Mr Speaker, first of all ... the recession that has been caused in this country has been caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

This is a fact that seems lost on the leader of the opposition and the shadow treasurer, Mr Speaker.

And every time he ignores the impact of Covid-19 ... on the Australian economy, Mr Speaker, he demonstrates, Mr Speaker, his lack of understanding of the Australian economy.

Mr Speaker, if you want to do this job, there are two things you particularly have to know about. You need to know about economic management and you need to know about national security. Two issues that this leader of the opposition has shown no interest in in his more than 20 years in this place.

Mr Speaker, the leader of the opposition raises a very important point. And that is the economic opportunities for women in this country. Mr Speaker, it may come as some surprise to the leader of the opposition, but women run small businesses, Mr Speaker.

Women pay tax. Women hire other Australians in their businesses. Mr Speaker, women want to drive on safe roads.

Women, Mr Speaker, want to go to university, and they want to study science and technology and engineering and maths – like the minister for industry did, Mr Speaker, becoming an accomplished engineer before she came into this place.

They want to get apprenticeships, Mr Speaker. They want to get traineeships. They want to get jobs, Mr Speaker. And 60% of the jobs that have come back in measured employment since the hit of the Covid-19 recession, Mr Speaker, have gone to women.

And we are on the road to try and restore, Mr Speaker, the record participation of women we were able to put in place before the Covid-19 recession hit, and the gender pay gap was reduced to its lowest level.

And those jobs are coming back for women, Mr Speaker. But not content with that, in this year’s budget we had the women’s economic security statement. That statement was $240 million of specific initiatives to support women in their businesses, their entrepreneurship, their training, Mr Speaker, their mentoring support, and to increase their participation in the labour force.

But it’s not just that, Mr Speaker. In this budget, we have listed ... Lynparza, Mr Speaker, the ovarian cancer drug.

I will tell you why we have been able to list so many drugs that support women in this country – because we’ve provisioned for it, we’ve budgeted for it, we’ve run an economy, Mr Speaker, that can pay for it.

When those opposite were in government, Mr Speaker, they cut funding to the PBS, and they didn’t list drugs, and the Australian people saw that at the last election. And that’s one of the many reasons why they decided not to put them on the treasurer benches. Mr Speaker, we back women ’cause we’re getting women in jobs.

Updated

Goodness. Michael McCormack is now trying to pretend he understands numbers.

He is trumping the “record” $110bn infrastructure spend.

That’s over 10 years.

$100bn had already been announced.

So that is $10bn new money across the whole nation. The whole nation.

Where a stretch of road can cost $500m.

Truly one of the greatest besprawlers the parliament has ever seen.

Updated

Jim Chalmers to Josh Frydenberg:

Is the treasurer aware that he had already more than doubled Australia’s debt before coronavirus?

Josh Frydenberg:

Mr Speaker, we set out last night, in the budget, what is happening with the trajectory of debt. And it was very clear that net debt was rising to 44% of GDP at the end of the forwards, and gross debt to 55%. But Mr Speaker, we inherited – we inherited, from the other side – we inherited a situation with baked-in spending. Through our measures, we were able to balance the budget, Mr Speaker, for the first time in 11 years.

Updated

Josh Frydenberg just took a dixer to attack Labor on taxes – just a moment after announcing that gross debt was due to hit $1.7 trillion in the medium term.

Updated

Zali Steggall to Josh Frydenberg:

We have no national integrity commission, and the only department shining a light on outrageous misuse of public funds like the Leppington land sale is the Australian National Audit Office [ANAO].

With their number of performance audits already down last financial year due to insufficient funding, and now a further 12% cut to funding for performance audits in last night’s budget, how can the Australian people have confidence that your record-breaking spending doesn’t lead to record-breaking pork-barrelling and mismanagement of taxpayer dollars?

Scott Morrison takes this one:

Thank you, Mr Speaker. I think the question’s probably best directed to myself, so I would be happy to provide the response. There is a 10-year review currently underway into the ANAO and a what their resourcing requirements are. Like there are many reviews currently before the government...

There is a 10-year review currently underway and, when the government receives the outcomes of that 10-year review, we will consider the resourcing for the ANAO.

Mr Speaker, there is a number of other reviews that are currently before the government. Of course, royal commissions that are still [underway] and as the treasurer indicated last night, when those reports have been received, then the government will be providing a fulsome response. And so, when we receive that report, then the government will make its response in terms of their ongoing resourcing.

Updated

Q: My question’s to the treasurer: what is the peak, in dollar terms, of the government’s mountain of Liberal gross debt?

Josh Frydenberg:

In gross debt, it’s $1.7 trillion. That is at the end of the medium term ... Near the end of the medium term - but I want to emphasise to the member for Rankin - obviously these are projections across the medium-term - and what we’re focused on is getting more people into work, because that is the way that you can repair the budget, Mr Speaker. And we were able to spend as was necessary through this crisis because we approach it from a position of economic strength.

That is a best-case scenario debt – $1.7 trillion in gross debt is if everything goes right.

Updated

Each dixer brings us closer to the dreaded Michael McCormack dixer and I just do not have the capacity for that today.

Jim Chalmers to Josh Frydenberg:

Nearly 1 million Australians on jobseeker over the age of 35 are ineligible for the government’s hiring credit announcement. Why has the government blown out Liberal debt to $1 trillion during this Morrison recession whilst still leaving so many Australians behind?

Frydenberg:

Mr Speaker, I never thought I’d see the day when the Labor party was attacking a program which was designed to get young people from jobseeker into work, Mr Speaker.

I never thought I would see the day ... when the Labor Party was seeking to make politics by pitting young people against senior Australians, Mr Speaker.

The reality is - he asked me about the jobmaker hiring credit - it is designed to support 450,000 jobs, Mr Speaker.

We have a number of programs which are designed to support senior Australians who have been out of work, Mr Speaker, and designed to provide with incentives of up to $10,000 to employers to take them on, Mr Speaker. We have those programs in place, Mr Speaker.

But the reality is we have announced a series of measures last night which are going to help grow the economy and get that unemployment rate down from its peak of around 8% at the end of this year. And you should not see one program in isolation from the comprehensive range of programs.

And the prime minister talked about the bring-forward of tax cuts. And of course, we have got $14 billion of infrastructure spending, Mr Speaker. And the loss carry-back measure that is supporting business as well as the immediate expensing initiative, which will support business investment and the productive capacity of our economy. All these measures work in tandem. The Australian economy is a complex ecosystem, Mr Speaker, and our initiatives are working together to do one thing - and that is to create jobs, Mr Speaker.

The measures that we have taken to date, as a government, have helped save 700,000 jobs, Mr Speaker. And if the member for Rankin dared to look in detail at the budget documents, he would have seen one sentence, Mr Speaker, which explains exactly why we did what we did in last night’s budget.

And that sentence says that, without the economic supports that we have announced last night, the unemployment rate would be 12% this year and 12% next year, Mr Speaker. And so the reality is that Covid-19 has hit the Australian economy and the global economy like an economic shock that we haven’t seen before.

And we have seen 10% of our workforce either lose their job or see their working hours reduced to zero. More than half are now back, Mr Speaker, and the trend is for more to come back over time. And the measures we took last night are responsible, they are targeted, they are temporary and they’re designed to do one thing – help Australians back into work.

Updated

Question time begins

We are straight into it.

Anthony Albanese to Scott Morrison:

By Christmas, 160,000 Australians will join the 1 million already unemployed. Why is the prime minister racking up $1 trillion of Liberal debt during the Morrison recession, while leaving so many Australians behind?

Morrison:

The leader of the opposition would know, because we have reminded him on numerous occasions in this place, Mr Speaker, that were it not for the actions taken by this government when the coronavirus hit, when Covid-19 hit, Mr Speaker, with the record support we’ve provided through jobkeeper and jobseeker and the many other support measures – 700,000 additional Australians would have been out of work.

Mr Speaker, we also know that, in recent months, 760,000 jobs that had been lost and reduced to zero hours have come back, Mr Speaker.

And we know, under measured employment, Mr Speaker, just under 60% of the jobs that have come back have been for women. And there has been a very strong comeback, also, for young people, Mr Speaker.

Our budget – released and delivered by the Treasurer last night – is a plan for economic recovery to get Australians back into jobs, Mr Speaker. Our plan is one for recovery that gets businesses with their doors open and investing again and hiring people, Mr Speaker.

The economic plan that was contained in last night’s budget builds on the considerable support that has enabled Australians to be weathering through this crisis with the blow cushioned by the measures that have been put in place to support them. And Mr Speaker, those jobs will keep coming back because of the measures that we put in place and we announced last night in the budget. There is still a long way back.

But I tell you, Mr Speaker, in this country, the road back is a lot shorter than the road back that will have to be travailed by those in many economies overseas. Because, Mr Speaker, it has been in Australia – through the great will and resilience and strength of the Australian people, supported by a government who’s got their back, Mr Speaker – that ensures that the blow of the Covid recession around the world, something the leader of the opposition is oblivious to – apparently Covid-19 didn’t happen in Australia, Mr Speaker. It happened in every single country around the world, and somehow it didn’t happen in Australia.

Mr Speaker, that diminishes the great loss of Australians in this country because of Covid-19, and if the leader of the opposition can’t work out there’s been a Covid pandemic in the world – let alone Australia, Mr Speaker – then he is as clueless as the Australian people know him to be.

As clueless as they know him to be and as inexperienced when it comes to issues of economic policy and budget management as his record demonstrates, Mr Speaker. Our government, Mr Speaker – our government, Mr Speaker – has ensured that we’ve been there for Australians over the last six months as this pandemic recession has hit this nation, and has ensured the jobs are coming back, and the jobs will continue to come back, because of the plan for jobs recovery that was released and outlined and delivered by the treasurer last night.

Updated

Switching over to the chamber and it is 90-second statement time.

Ed Husic just delivered a speech, which ended with

And finally, Eddie Van Halen was the greatest guitarist that ever lived. Rest in peace. Gen X will miss you.

I mean, Jimi Hendrix would probably have something to say about that, but it’s not the first time Gen X has got something wrong.

(There is also Eric Clapton, Jimmy Page, Pete Townshend, Keith Richards and I’d say even George Harrison ahead of Eddie on that list, but you know.)


Updated

And that is where the address ends.

Question time will be in about 20 minutes.

Q: The budget papers show that Covid will massively slow population growth in Victoria and create a GST shortfall of almost $4 billion this year alone. Given the state’s already precarious financial situation because of the second wave, would you consider any sort of GST top-up to make up for the shortfall or any other specific measures for Victoria?

Josh Frydenberg:

Well, we have already made a GST top-up which dealt with the situation particularly in Western Australia, where their GST distributions had fallen significantly below where it should have been. But, again, GST is a function of consumption across the economy and consumption is nearly 60% of GDP.

Consumption has been hit as the health restrictions have been put in place, just like our income tax receipts have been hit as people have lost their jobs; just as our company tax receipts have been hit as businesses have become less profitable or turned up with a loss.

So every government, federal and state, is feeling the impact of the Covid-19 crisis and the impact has been felt and GST contributions. If anything my message to the states is they need to spend more tax. That was the message of the governor of the Reserve Bank, Philip Lowe, who said the states had the capacity to spend an extra $40 billion over the next two years or 2% of GDP.

I would ask the states to spend more. Talking in Western Australia about a surplus – we have just run the biggest deficit. So I would say to all state premiers and all state treasurers who I have a good working relationship with: please dig deep, support your communities, spend more through this crisis and share some of that burden.

Updated

Q: Treasurer, talking about the uncertainties in the budget, I noticed that both the prime minister and you seem to be leaving yourself a bit of wriggle room on that assumption about a population-wide vaccination program being in progress at the end of next year or late next year. I wonder where that assumption came from and was it endorsed by the Australian health protection principal committee? Was it discussed by them? And if they didn’t endorse it, why was it not taken to them?

Josh Frydenberg:

Well, it was worked out by Treasury working in conjunction with the health department and they worked through the various scenarios. But as you would understand, these are very uncertain times, and as a government we have taken every step possible to give Australia the best possible chance of getting a vaccine. And that means investing in our researchers, joining global supply chains and securing access to 80 million doses of vaccines for Australians.

But we’re all hopeful in this room and beyond that we will find a vaccine and we have made that assumption based on the end of next year. But obviously as there are developments in the health and the global community, we’ll continue to update our position in subsequent economic documents. But that forecast was based on a Treasury analysis that was undertaken following consultation with the health department.

Updated

Q: Despite these large debt and deficits that stretch out for a decade, as shown in the budget, you say that the country remains on a path that is fiscally sustainable. The forecasts in the budget appear reasonably optimistic and we know how easily forecasts can be blown-off course due to the health crisis. So how far, how much debt, how deep into deficit is the government prepared to go if those forecasts prove radically too optimistic, if the recovery turns into something like a second recession?

Josh Frydenberg:

Well, again, this is a health crisis that’s leading to a very significant and severe economic crisis. And there are some scenarios in the budget documents which, for example, talk about another wave across Victoria or a similar-sized state. And in the event that that occurs, you could see a hit to GDP of $55bn or equivalent of 1% of GDP over two years.

Now, that’s obviously a negative scenario of what could happen if we were to see another wave of cases.

There’s also an upside scenario in the budget papers, whereas if the vaccine was found six months earlier, that would lead to a $34bn increase in GDP. So that is what’s ahead of us because there is a great deal of uncertainty in this pandemic.

Q: Are you prepared to go deeper into deficit?

Frydenberg:

Again, we are taking the steps today based on what we know today, but we will continue to take temporary and targeted measures, Sabra, to drive down unemployment as we have today.

I do want to point out that in the most recent job numbers, unemployment fell from 7.5% down to 6.8%. So 111,000 new jobs were created last month, 458,000 over the last three months. That fall from 7.5 to 6 is the single biggest fall in 32 years. So we are starting to see a trend in the right direction.

Victoria’s been different – and Victoria, there were 42,000 jobs lost last month and more will be lost in Victoria as a result of these restrictions. But we are trending in the right direction as an economy and as a country.

Updated

Q: I can see a benefit to a Government going to a spring election next year for tax cuts to turn up after somebody lodges their tax return after June 30 next year. However, we are in a national emergency, the economy needs support now. What is to stop you asking the ATO to use those - take those back-dated tax cuts and apportion them, pro rata into somebody’s PAYG now so the money hit it is economy?

Josh Frydenberg:

Again, people’s salaries may have been - or the income they were receiving in those earlier six months be different to what they are receiving as of November and December because obviously the circumstances have changed across the economy.

You also get the lower and middle income tax-off set. You know once you put in your return for the year that comes in. So you will get benefit as of the end of the year or before as soon as the PAYG withholding schedules are updated by treasury. But the advice to us contrary to what Mark has said, the advice to us ask the way the Tax Office will do this is that they will amend those schedules for going forward and then people receive the money at the end of the year.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese has announced it will commit $500m to maintenance and repair of public housing and would ask for an equal contribution from states and territories.

He said:

I understand the difference having a secure house makes to your life ... This budget is a lost opportunity. The low-hanging fruit for creating jobs in trades and construction is in public housing.

Albanese said that with 160,000 Australians joining unemployment queues and a maintenance backlog, it was a sensible measure he hoped the government would adopt.

Jason Clare noted the Master Builders and Housing Industry Association also called for investment in public housing.

Updated

Q: You mentioned in your speech a minute ago revisiting past recessions that you wanted to tip the balance in favour of employment for young Australians, but there’s also another lesson from previous recessions and that is older workers struggle to find reemployment if they lose a job during a downturn. So just with your ... jobmaker credit, can you tell me what there is to stop an employer sacking a 50-year-old full-time worker who isn’t subsidised in order to hire three young part-time workers who are subsidised?

Josh Frydenberg:

So there’s a double-barrel test for the eligibility of a business to receive that jobmaker hiring credit. The double-barrel test is that based on the numbers as of the end of September, the head count has to be higher and the payroll needs to be higher. And so that is the integrity test that is designed to support additional people coming on to that business, and that will ensure that those 450,000 people that we’re supporting will get the benefit of those businesses taking those incentives to hire and to grow.

And the focus on young people, as I laid out in the speech, is because we have seen with previous recessions, and we have seen in this recession, that there had been particularly hit hard and they don’t necessarily have the same experience or the skillsets that some of the senior workers have. And so, therefore, giving them this helping hand now is very important.

Q: Still on the question, though – that doesn’t stop someone from sacking a 50-year-old and still employing more people and meeting that threshold you have set?

Frydenberg:

We got those integrity tests in place. The head count has to be higher than as of 30th of September. This is a 12-month initiative and we believe that having that double-barrel test will ensure that we get additional [benefit] across the economy.

Updated

Q: It looks like Steven Kennedy and the crew are reassessing what trend growth is – basically 2% now. It doesn’t get to 2.75 up until the end of 10 years. Coupled with the fact that you have got a population that’s going to be 1 million people fewer than it was expected to be at the end of 2022, is the sad fact that your kids, my kids, are going to be living in a world in Australia that’s poorer, older and smaller?

Josh Frydenberg:

Well, the reality is we are going to see the economy contract, that’s one point. The second is, because of the health restrictions, we have seen an impact on population – and as you point out, Australia’s population growth will be the lowest in more than a century. And net overseas migration will be falling in consecutive years for the first time in 46 years.

So we are seeing, as a result of Covid-19, Andrew, significant impact on growth as a result of those population numbers and, of course, we’re seeing a smaller economy as a result. But there is cause for optimism and hope and that’s our focus.

Q: So not poorer, not older?

Frydenberg:

Well, again, the Australian economy will continue to grow. Population growth will come back. The net overseas migration numbers that are printed in the budget after those consecutive years of falls will start to come back as restrictions are eased. So the trends will start to turn around for the economy, but certainly the shock is great.

Updated

Q: In May you told the press club that we the second highest company tax rate in the OECD. In July you told the press club you wanted to go Reagan Thatcher supply-side reforms. Last night where were the big reforms? Was it the deficits? The Senate? The focus groups? Or the PM that stopped you?

Josh Frydenberg:

Well, as you know, the company tax battle has been one that has played out in the halls of Parliament House before. We were successful in reducing the company tax rate for small and medium-sized businesses.

That’s coming down 25%, so that’s an important reform. With respect to businesses, what we have decided to pursue in this budget is boosting investment incentives and that’s been the critical focus for us – boosting business investment incentives – and that is going to help strengthen the economy in the here and now.

Updated

Q: Australia is sliding backwards in terms of the educational outcomes. Many experts say that it is beneficial not only for the children but also for Australia’s GDP to invest in early childhood education. Why was there nothing in the budget last night for childcare? And will there be more to say from this government in the May budget next year?

Josh Frydenberg:

Actually there were things in the budget for childcare ... Hundreds of millions of dollars for childcare, and obviously that has been very important – for example, in Victoria. In terms of childcare and our subsidies, around $9bn a year. It helped drive the increase in workforce participation that we saw at the pre-Covid levels.

That’s been very important. So we’re continuing to support childcare in record amounts and that has been a driver of the workforce participation. So there were initiatives in this budget designed to cushion the blow for parents who have kids through childcare.

Updated

Q: The most important part of this budget for most Australians will be those tax cuts, how much they’ll get and when they’ll appear in pay packets. You said this morning on the Sunrise program that the backdated element of the tax cuts won’t be paid until the end of the financial year in a lump sum. You said the way the tax office operates is that the earlier six months will be rebated back to you at the end of the financial year.

Isn’t it the case that’s not the way the tax office operates, that those six months of backdated tax cuts will actually be paid pro-rata in a fortnightly or monthly pay cycle whenever these tax cuts come in – maybe it’s in December that that money will be in the pockets of those Australians? And if that’s the case, what don’t you know the detail of your budget centrepiece?

Josh Frydenberg:

Well, what the tax office has told us is that they’re going to amend the PAYG withholding tax schedules and that will be once we know that the Labor party is supporting this bill and the bill I’m introducing tomorrow.

So that will be from December or November onwards, so before Christmas. Those changes will be made and the first six months will be provided at the end of the year, together with a low- and middle-income tax office set.

Q: It’s not going to be pro rata’d, are you sure?

Frydenberg:

The changes will come into effect at the end of this year, but in terms of what’s happening in the first six months, that will be payable at the end of the year.

Updated

Q: One of the self-described virtues of the budget was a lot of these measures announced will come and go in a matter of years. You’ll be able to turn them off, as such, and the budget papers show that the spending trajectory by the end of the forward estimates pretty much returns to where it was before the crisis, the MYEFO estimates.

Given we’re going to be in deficit for a decade and the debt figures contained within, is it realistic for your government, who whoever is in power by then, to keep spending at that level? Or is spending going to be looked at some stage without dampening demand?

Josh Frydenberg:

As you know, we set out a fiscal strategy which was in two parts. The first phase was designed to allow the automatic stabilisers to work freely and also to introduce these temporary and targeted measures. Once we got comfortably below 6% unemployment, which is the 5.5% number printed for mid-2024, then we move to the second phase and fiscal sustainability and sustaining the budget position. But those two phases, they work in tandem because you cannot have a budget repair strategy without having a jobs recovery.

And importantly, we’re seeing payments as a share of GDP come down from 34.8% in 2021 down to 26.9% at the end of the forwards.

So it’s quite a significant fall in payments as a share of GDP. But I just want to highlight one point, which is compared to the estimates at MYEFO – so the end of last year – the Australian economy by the end of the medium-term will be 8% smaller in nominal terms than what was originally forecast.

Now, that’s the equivalent of $250bn. That is the impact of Covid and what we have seen is not just an increased expenditure in terms of our payments, but we have also seen a big hit to tax receipts. So over the forward estimates, payments increase by $237bn.

Tax receipts fall by $283bn. So less company profits, less people in work paying taxes. One of the reasons why we’re able to get the budget back into balance for the first time in 11 years is because welfare dependency hit a 30-year low, and more people were in work.

The workforce participation rates were at record highs. And so we need to get more people into jobs. That will help grow our economy, but our economy is smaller as a result of Covid-19.

Updated

Q: Today New South Wales ended a 12-day streak of no community transmission of COVID-19. Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has maintained the state must have 28 days without a local case before the border reopens.

Last night budget assumed that every state border, except WA, would be open by the end of the year. A day later, aren’t those optimistic projections of growth already at risk if we can’t get domestic borders reopened?

Josh Frydenberg:

Well, we’re confident that those domestic borders will open by the end of the year as the Prime Minister has discussed with the premiers and the chief ministers at National Cabinet. Western Australia, as you say, there’s an expectation that that border reopening won’t occur until April next year, but closed borders cost jobs so the quicker those borders are open in a COVID-safe way, the better, not just for those local communities and those particular states but across the country.

Queensland has a very dynamic and large tourism sector and that tourism sector is being hurt by those border restrictions.

Q: This disease does discriminate between age groups and during this crisis we have asked the young of Australia to make sacrifices for the elderly. We have taken their education, we have taken their jobs and we have taken their liberty. Now, they’re being sent a $1.7 trillion gross debt bill which will mature in 2031. How is that fair?

Josh Frydenberg:

Well, ultimately, it would have been unfair to saddle today’s generation and future generations with a higher unemployment rate and that would have been the result if we had not intervened the way we have and hadn’t released the measures that we announced in last night’s budget.

And the counter-factual, is that unemployment will rise to 12% this year and next, but for the measures that we have taken in this budget. So already our economic response has helped save 700,000 jobs. JobKeeper, JobSeeker, the $32 billion cash flow boost, the $750 payments, and our measures that we announced last night will continue to save jobs. So for young Australians who will be entering into the job market, it’s going to be a lot harder and that’s why we put this extra measures in place, but for young Australians who will have the burden of meeting these debt obligations in the future, they would have been a lot higher if we had not intervened in the way we have to get the unemployment rate down.

Q: You’re putting a lot of money into getting the economy going again, throwing a lot of money at business, but as you have mentioned in the speech, it’s replacing an even bigger system, as a huge stepdown from the first round of measures.

You said jobkeeper was estimated to have kept 3.5 million Australians in work and 900,000 businesses afloat. In your estimates of the forecast for the next 12 months, treasury must have made some estimates about how many of those people who have been protected by jobkeeper and how many of those businesses are going to effectively go to the wall. What’s your estimate of the number of zombie businesses that will be created and what’s your message for those people who look at last night’s budget and say: there’s nothing new and we have got to now close?

Josh Frydenberg:

There will be restructuring across the economy over the course of the next six to 12 months, but Treasury’s forecast of the unemployment rate – which peaks at around 10% at the end of this year and then goes to 7.25% by midyear, and then falls to 6.5% the year after, 6% after that and 5.5% by mid-24 – is prefaced on the assumption that jobkeeper ends in March. So we very much take into account the end of the jobkeeper program in our forecasts going forward.

With respect to zombie businesses, as you know, there were a couple of thousand or more businesses who would have otherwise gone through the insolvency process, but I put a temporary measure in place which changed the thresholds of which statutory demands could be made, both in timeframe but also in terms of the financial amounts. Those businesses will now go through the insolvency process, as that temporary [measure] ends at the end of the year, and new insolvency processes will be ones that those businesses go through, and we’re hoping that many of them will continue to survive, but not every business will. That is the harsh reality of the crisis we face.

Q: Surely you must have numbers though on guesstimates on how many you think will go to the wall?

Frydenberg:

Again, those numbers are wrapped up within the broader Treasury estimates of the unemployment figures.

Updated

Q: I’m sure you’ll get questions on specifics within the budget. At the heart of the budget is defeating this virus. Donald Trump says we shouldn’t be afraid of COVID-19. You once called him a “drop-kick.” What superlative would you use now?

Josh Frydenberg:

I’m going to leave the commentary on other nations ‘political systems to you. What I will say, is that we take COVID-19 very seriously. It’s a deadly virus. And it’s taken lives and it doesn’t discriminate between age groups. Doesn’t discriminate between race or religion or backgrounds and that is why we have placed health measures first and foremost in our response and those health measures have been working with - as we partner with the states in that response. But it’s also left a very significant Economic impact and the measures in this budget are designed to cushion that blow, but also to rebuild for the recovery.

Q: The President added to that today on Twitter by comparing it with the flu, Twitter censored the tweet, putting a label on it saying that it possibly was spreading misinformation. Facebook removed it.

Is it irresponsible?

Frydenberg:

Well, you won’t see Scott Morrison putting out those sort of messages. What Scott Morrison, what Greg Hunt, what myself and others have always said is that this virus is - is deadly and it’s is creating a massive health and economic challenge for us and we put the health of all Australians first and that is what we have done and the result is that as a nation we have been able to suppress the virus very successful to date. The good news out of Victoria, the numbers are coming down and that should preface a further easing of restrictions in coming weeks.

The questions have begun.

Q: I don’t know if you got a sir Humphrey in our office, but did anyone say for your forecast, 3 three-quarters%, very courageous, Minister.

Josh Frydenberg:

If you compare it in the budget numbers to the global economy, the global economy is expected to grow by 5% next year, China is expected to grow by 8% next year and our major trading partners by even more than 5% and closer to 6%. The expectation of our economy growing is obviously based on a number of factors.

Firstly - the success the nation is having today in suppressing the virus and containing outbreaks of new cases. But also, secondly, the measures that we have announced in last night’s budget and that we have announced since the COVID crisis begun are driving the recovery and are helping to create jobs.

These are unprecedented responses by the Government. Unprecedented use of the balance sheet of the nation to get people back into work. So the combination of the suppression successfully of the virus domestically with the economic support that we are providing is going to drive that economic recovery next year.

Bearing in mind that the economy, this calendar year, is forecast to fall or contract by 3 and three-quarter per cent. So in that context, next year’s economic recovery is based on the sound - understanding by treasury of what is occurring both domestically and globally.

International borders assumed to be closed until 'late next year' – Frydenberg

What are the assumptions the budget is making?

Josh Frydenberg:

The economic forecast and the budget are made by Treasury on the best available evidence today. Namely, that the domestic outbreaks of the virus continue to emerge but are largely contained and that large-scale lockdowns are avoided and restrictions continue to ease.

Domestic borders are assumed to reopen around the end of this year.

International travel, including by tourists and international students, is assumed to remain largely closed off until late next year and then gradually return over time, and a vaccine to be available around the end of 2021 is one of the assumptions in the budget.

Vaccine or not, the temporary and targeted measures in this budget will create jobs and drive our economy.

We know that the road out of this crisis will be unpredictable. We also know that this budget outlines possible alternative upside and downside scenarios. We are taking nothing for granted.

Updated

Josh Frydenberg:

The budget forecasts that almost 950,000 jobs will be created within the next four years.

I repeat, the budget forecasts that around 950,000 jobs will be created over the next four years. And ... Treasury has estimated that without our policy support, the unemployment rate would have risen and remained at 12% this year and next.

This policy support, however, has come at a substantial fiscal cost. Covid-19 will see our deficit reach $213.7bn this year.

That is the equivalent of 11% of GDP. Net debt will peak at $966bn, or 44% of GDP, in June 2024.

This is a price worth paying to Australian lives and livelihoods. And this is a price worth paying to put Australia on the path to economic recovery. We face the greatest challenge of our time in responding to Covid-19.

And our plan last night is a plan that sets us to rebuild the Australian economy. We owe it to the next generation to ensure a strong economy so that their lives are filled with the same opportunities and the same possibilities that we have enjoyed.

Updated

Comfort eating seems to be going on all over the place.

Here’s some of the exchange between Network Ten and Scott Morrison, where the Ten hosts seems to ask the prime minister if he ate one of the chickens he just built a coop for at the Lodge.

Host: Prime minister, we know you’ve got the weight of the world on your shoulders at the moment, you’ve got to get Australia out of this budget black hole. And we saw this snap of the treasurer out last night with a vanilla slice in the foreground, a bit of comfort food to get him through the big night. What did you turn to, prime minister?

Morrison: I actually had a curry last night.

Host: You had a curry!

Morrison: Just before the budget was, I did have a curry. It was a nice satay curry, actually.

Host: Not too spicy?

Morrison: No – I didn’t get to cook it, though. I like to cook my own curries, but I didn’t, I haven’t had time lately to do that, just had the time to make the chook pen on the weekend.

Host: Yeah. It wasn’t a chicken curry was it? You’re not down a few chooks, are you?

Morrison: It was, but not from out of the chook pen. We haven’t got the chooks in there yet. They’ll be laying hens, they won’t be for curries.

Host: Well good on you.

Updated

So far, the speech is a lot more of what we have heard last night and this morning.

The question and answer segment should start soon.

Treasurer's national press club address

Josh Frydenberg starts his speech with an acknowledgement of Mathias Cormann.

(Cormann is leaving federal politics at the end of the year – there is a long farewell tour.)

Can I also acknowledge my parliamentary colleagues in the room and start with Mathias Cormann.

Mathias Cormann has been a tower of strength as Australia’s finance minister. I don’t think this country has seen a finer finance minister than Mathias Cormann.

It’s been my great pleasure to work with him on the ERC, as first as assistant treasurer and now as the treasurer. His work on the ERC has helped us get the financial fire power that was needed to respond to this crisis.

He was always very good at saying no. This year he’s been much better at saying yes but, Mathias Cormann, a very, very big thank you.

Updated

These are becoming a regular part of the Victorian update.

Today's #mysterycases update. Will make this routine @VicGovDHHS reporting shortly. pic.twitter.com/zqms4qpzHX

— Chief Health Officer, Victoria (@VictorianCHO) October 6, 2020

Updated

The Andrews government will scrap preventative detention powers and tighten restrictions about who can be an authorised officer in an attempt to pass a controversial bill seen as vital to the state’s response to a second wave of coronavirus cases.

The Transport Matters MP, Rod Barton, confirmed to Guardian Australia that the government had agreed to the amendments in discussions with him and other crossbench MPs.

The bill will be introduced to the upper house next week.

Updated

It’s the treasurer’s expression that really makes this one.

And then they just gave up.

Updated

The Refugee Council of Australia is still reeling from some of the hidden measures in last night’s budget:

The Federal Government has used its 2020-21 Budget to cut Australia’s Refugee and Humanitarian Program by 5000 places a year and halve its financial assistance program to people seeking asylum while increasing funding to its punitive offshore processing regime.

Refugee Council of Australia (RCOA) chief executive Paul Power said the decision to place a ceiling of 13,750 places on the Refugee and Humanitarian Program could not have come at a worse time.

“The Morrison Government has joined the Trump administration in the United States in cutting refugee resettlement at a time when millions of refugees in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America live in dire circumstances made much worse by the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic,” Mr Power said.

“Refugees are desperately hoping for safe pathways out of untenable situations, such as the crisis being faced by Syrian refugees living in Beirut, living on the margins of a society which is in deep crisis while hosting more refugees per capita than any country in the world. Australia is not only turning away from refugees but also from the nations and host communities which are at the forefront of large-scale refugee movements.”

The Abbott Government cut the refugee program to 13,750 places in 2013 but agreed on a staged increase to win crossbench Senate support in 2014 for its temporary protection legislation. This saw the program increase to 16,250 in 2017-18 and 18,750 in 2018-19 – a level achieved just once before the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted refugee resettlement.

“Other measures in the 2020-21 Budget rob hope from people in need of protection,” Mr Power said. “Financial support for people seeking asylum has been cut by 86% from $139.8 million in 2017-18 to just $19.6 million in 2020-21, despite a substantial increase in the numbers of people in need.

“Thousands of people seeking asylum have lost their jobs over the past seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic and have been forced to seek help from state government services, local charities and community groups because of the removal of the Federal safety net.”

There is a sense of urgency surrounding this now.

We urge the community, more than ever, to come forward for testing - even with the mildest of symptoms. The higher our testing rate, the better chance we have of keeping the pandemic at bay.

— Gladys Berejiklian (@GladysB) October 7, 2020

Updated

Labor to support tax cuts

This really shouldn’t surprise anyone – Labor had called for the second tranche of tax cuts to be brought forward last year.

New: Labor will write to the tax commissioner saying it's ok to proceed with tax cuts because we support them, while it deliberates about the business measures. Best guess is Labor will end up supporting the lot #auspol @AmyRemeikis

— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) October 7, 2020

Updated

Berejiklian asks Queensland not to restart border clock after NSW reports three mystery cases

Gladys Berejiklian spoke to the media about the (so far) mystery cases which have popped up after 8pm in NSW. She also had a message for Queensland, asking it not to restart its border opening clock.

Concerningly, overnight, we’ve had three cases of community transmission. None of those cases are related to each other.

Two are from south-western Sydney and one is from western Sydney.

So the suburbs these people are from are from Parramatta local government area, Campbelltown local government area, and also Wollondilly local government area. So we’re asking people in those areas to come forward and get tested and Dr Chant will provide further information.

This also aligns with traces of the virus that were found in both south-western Sydney and also north-western Sydney, through the sewerage system.

But the strong message is I want everybody in New South Wales to continue to be vigilant and to continue to be on high alert.

Our suspicions that the virus is always lurking in the community are founded. And we wouldn’t have said that if we didn’t mean it.

We really need people to come forward and get tested and health is working with the three positive tests to make sure that we have contacted their direct contacts and anybody else that had been exposed.

I always said that what the Queensland government’s definition of what would make it safe for them to open their border was always very high. And something unrealistic. I think the cases overnight have proven that.

Yes, it is a concern when you have a handful of community transmission, but we have to assume from time to time we are going to have this.

We’re always going to have cases pop up because we’re in a pandemic, but we’re also in an economy which is open where people are undertaking their business, where we don’t have borders, but for Victoria.

So, we really need to put that into prospective.

I say to the Queensland government, I appreciate you will probably come out today and say the 28 days is ticking from the start. Until the end of the pan the pandemic, it is unlikely that New South Wales will get to 28 days with no community transmission. Queensland and WA have the luxury of closing their borders so they have a higher chance of having zero to fewer transmission cases, but in New South Wales, where we are hosting major events, we need the community to be vigilant, but we have to accept there is that element of risk and there is that element of risk that we need to manage and the cases overnight demonstrate that clearly.

Updated

Q: Can you look down the camera and tell Melburnians now that restrictions will ease on October 19?

Daniel Andrews:

No, I can’t say that and I’ve never said that. I’ve said that we will have to look at the data.

We’ll have to look at the stories that sit behind each of those cases, but this trend is with us, the strategy is working. But ultimately the biggest thing everyone can do and arguably the most important thing that people can do, if you’ve got symptoms, please get tested and please get tested today.

Don’t wait till tomorrow or the day after. Please get tested today. We’ll get your response tomorrow and your public health response, your support, your safety and the safety of those most dear to you and every family by tomorrow dinner time. If you wait to get tested till tomorrow, then we’re chasing, we’re 24 hours behind where we could be if you had gone and got tested today.

So it’s very, very important. The strategy is working and we’ll have more to say as the days unfold, the data is crunched, all the public health advice comes forward, but we’re in an infinitely better position than we’ve been in at any time for months and that’s all down to the amazing work that the Victorian community is doing.

Q: So the 14-day period, is that Sunday to the Sunday after?

Andrews:

Yeah, I think so. Something like that. Give or take 12 hours. You know, I think that we’ll be very clear with you at the time when we stand up and I understand, I get it. Everyone is on a countdown. Everyone is looking at all sorts of numbers. We are too and when it’s safe to take a step, we will.

We can’t predict what tomorrow’s numbers will look like, let alone another 12 or 14 days on.

We have to do this one day at a time, one case at a time, one decision at a time. That’s why it’s really important that every Victorian makes the right decision, the smart and lawful decision, and that’s how we’ll get to that Covid normal and that’s how it will be a meaningful normal. And something we can lock in for 2021, a year that we all are working so, so hard to make very different than 2020.

Updated

Josh Frydenberg is at the press club today.

Scott Morrison is the guest on 7.30.

Anthony Albanese will deliver his budget-in-reply on Thursday.

Daniel Andrews message to Year 12s:

It’s an unprecedented year.

Year 12 is always challenging, both VCE and VCAL.

There’s lots of challenges there.

I think it’s really important that we have made this decision not to have a special consideration approach where you’ve got to ask for it.

We’re instead examining at a school-based level and more broadly every single individual student.

Where are they likely to finish up?

Where would they have been expected to finish up?

Trying to take into account all the usual special circumstances that apply in any given year and the effect of the global pandemic. So I think that is a really important shift and

I want to thank the Deputy Premier and all of his team for the work they have done to get us to that point. It’s a tough year, absolutely.

It’s always a tough year but the resilience and the deeply compassionate and caring nature of our teachers and staff, as well as families – everyone knows this is a really important year and I’m confident that with particularly the special consideration arrangements we have put in place, we’ll get our Year 12s through.

I’ve spoken to enough vice-chancellors to know that they are very, very confident, very confident, that they’ll be able to, at the end of first-year university for instance - that’s not the only path way by any means - but from that point of view, they’ll have all their first-year students at the end of 2021 ready to go into second-year uni.

Our Tafes will make sure that anyone who has to do catch-ups will get that done. Some of the things in our budget will make it more likely that those Year 12s will be employed next year, more than otherwise would have been the case. This is a strong state and we are well-placed to find that Covid-normal and those senior students can begin their journey, whatever that might involve, knowing that the government is doing... playing its part, doing the work we have to do to underpin demand and confidence and make sure that we continue to get things done in this state. That’s the story of the last six years, biggest infrastructure agenda the state has ever seen, big and meaningful reforms, whether it’s in mental health, family violence, the list goes on and on. Early childhood.

We probably don’t have time to list the different things we’ve been able to achieve – not just the government, but Victorians.

That will be the story of 2021 as well. Premier, we thought there might be an announcement on airport rail in the federal budget. When might we expect something on airport rail?

We’re in – have been for a long time – in very detailed discussions with the commonwealth government and I think we’ll have positive things to say quite soon.

Updated

When the three women who went to Melbourne and allegedly lied on their border pass on their return to Queensland (the matter is in court so it is alleged), the cases weren’t found until towards the end of the two weeks.

Then, a couple of weeks after that, a missed case seemed to spark another outbreak (it was deemed most likely, but not 100% confirmed, that the cases were linked).

In NSW, we are at the tail end of the two weeks from when the taxi driver unknowingly worked and travelled while infectious.

That’s why these cases, as spread out as they are, are under “urgent” investigation. If they don’t know where they came from, it makes it a lot harder to catch all the cases which may be linked.

Concerningly, the three new locally acquired infections in NSW (officially reported in tomorrow's figures) don't appear to be related:
* Parramatta LGA
* Campbelltown LGA
* Wollondilly LGA

— casey briggs (@CaseyBriggs) October 7, 2020

Updated

Back to Daniel Andrews. He is asked about assumptions the budget makes about Victoria opening up before the end of the year.

Q: Broadly speaking, how likely is that?

Andrews:

Well, we’re doing everything we can to get these numbers down and to be able to keep them down and then move to, um, a much better set of rules and find that Covid normal so it’s a Covid-normal Christmas, a Covid-normal summer and we can push into 2021 with that sense of certainty that we can maintain those numbers at a very low level.

There will be cases.

There will be outbreaks.

That’s just the nature of this thing and that’s the strategy that we’ve all signed up to. The intervening period, of corks between now and the end of the year, it’s not just the federal budget, there’ll be a state budget as well and I can assure every single Victorian it will be the biggest and most significant state budget that has been delivered in the history of this state, in terms of large projects and small opportunities for reform and change and real leadership in a number of very, very important areas.

That will all be about skills and jobs, confidence, investment, making sure that there’s a real spark in the Victorian economy and that we’ve got that momentum to take us through 2021, not just to repair the damage that this virus has done to all of us, as an economy, as communities, as families, but a plan to be better and stronger because of 2020.

There are opportunities, even amidst all the challenges we face, there are opportunities that would not have been available to us previously. Our budget will do exactly what the federal government did last night – follow the advice of the Reserve Bank governor, borrow to build, and use the strength of the state budget to protect household budgets. That’s exactly what we’ll do.

This is not the time for surpluses, and it’s not the time to ignore the fact that if you don’t borrow at historically low carrying costs, then you’ll make a bad situation worse. So to that extent, it I say well done to the commonwealth government. There are always things we could go back and forth on – whether we’ve got enough here or not enough there. I’m not interested in having those debates at the moment. We’re working side by side with the commonwealth government.

They’re out there as we speak, door-knocking people who are close contact, door-knocking people who are positive cases. We’re very grateful for their support and I just don’t think, you know, the kind of budget response, politics as usual – it doesn’t sit right for me at this time of state-of-disaster, state-of-emergency, but also we’re so close, we’re so close to seeing this strategy through, our budget will be just like the federal budget, following the advice of the Reserve Bank governor, borrow to build, because there’s simply no choice, and use the state budget to cushion and support and protect household budgets. That’s exactly what we will do.

Updated

Oh look what happened to the auditor’s budget.

It’s almost like its been an effective office.

And where will the cuts be made? Performance audits! Down from $33m to $29m after 4 years. #auspol #Budget2021 pic.twitter.com/tfPvOIMveR

— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) October 7, 2020

Three NSW Covid cases under 'urgent investigation'

There were no locally acquired cases in the last 24 hours – but past the 8pm cut-off there has been reports of three new cases which are under “urgent investigation”.

NSW has reported no recent cases of locally transmitted #COVID19 through to 8pm last night, for the 12th consecutive day.

However, since 8pm, three reports of cases have been received – two in South Western Sydney and one in Western Sydney. These are under urgent investigation. pic.twitter.com/NZMkGMD2Bo

— NSW Health (@NSWHealth) October 7, 2020

Updated

Q: Are you satisfied that the Chad spoken cluster is contained? If we don’t reach the benchmark of five daily cases for the rolling average, and five mystery cases, could we still move to the next step?

Daniel Andrews:

I wouldn’t make that comment in relation to Chadstone because I think it’s a broader comment than contained to any one outbreaks.

You can only know what you know. We can’t say what comes in tomorrow’s testing or the day after.

I’ll answer your question but let’s not answer it in view of one particular outbreak. In broad terms, it is possible we get a number that is higher than our target number but we have certainty and a degree of comfort about the story that sits behind those cases and I think you’ve heard Brett, Allen, all of us, talk in terms of if you were tracking along quite nicely and in the last three days of the 14-day period you got eight, 10, 12 cases but they were in aged care, health workers a thing we don’t talk about a lot these days but we have talked about it a lot, and we’re guided by it – the number of symptomatic days before a person gets a test is critically important because that means there’s less chance for you to give it to someone else.

That’s why we keep saying to people, please get tested as soon as you feel symptoms. If you’re roaming around going about your business – and yes, you’re limited if you’re in metropolitan Melbourne – but if you’re essentially going about a Covid-normal life and you’ve got symptoms, you’ll come into contact with others or you will be in contact with someone else who is in contact with others because they’re a permitted workers, things of that nature.

So the narrative, the story, what sits behind all these cases will be very, very important. We’ve always made that point.

But it’s balanced by the other point and that is you can’t hope to keep these numbers low, you can’t hope to keep these numbers low unless you first get them low and that’s where we are headed but we’ll also reserve the right to apply common sense, apply what we know about individual cases, that whole narrative piece. That’s what’s guided us throughout.

Updated

But Daniel Andrews says the advice is the Chadstone outbreak is under control:

That’s certainly the advice from the public health team. They’ve done a great job in very rapid response, very localised response.

Some of the tactics as well has been, you know, not just what the textbook would tell you, but going, indeed, above and beyond that, so not door-knocking every other business once but doing it twice, pop-up testing clinics.

I think there’s also been some engagement with a number of high ... high-rotation businesses in neighbouring shopping centres as well, so not just within Chadstone but, indeed, in the immediate environment. This has been very well-handled but, at the same time, it just speaks to how wildly infectious it is that it can run, even when it’s well-handled, you can finish up with 30-plus cases.

Updated

It’s the Chadstone outbreak which remains the most worrying.

Door-knocking has been widened to cover the community and encourage more testing.

Updated

Andrews issues weather warning as heavy rain expected in regional Victoria

Daniel Andrews:

The metro-regional split - no new cases in regional Victoria today and there are just two active cases in regional Victoria as of today’s update.

In terms of active cases in aged care, just 58 active cases in aged care, so those numbers continue to fall and that will be a mixture of staff as well as potentially some residents. And when I say staff, it’s the broadest context – so it’s not just clinical staff. It can be staff who have any connection to an aged care outbreak and an aged care outbreak is, of course, just a single case.

That’s treated the same as many more cases given the underlying vulnerability of people in those settings. In terms of active cases in disability facility settings, still just that single staff member. And hopefully that person will move out of our data once they have cleared the virus.

And an update on the weather:

The final thing I wanted to say: can I ask Victorians to pay close attention to the Vic emergency app or the Vic SES website today, ses.vic.gov.au.

There are some severe weather warnings, particularly in relation to what are expected to be significant rain events in some part of the state. SES do a fantastic job but if we can all just be aware of our circumstances, be aware of what’s coming later on today and perhaps the next few days, that helps them do their work.

They are amazing and we’ve seen them tested, but equal to that test in recent weeks and months with high winds and a range of other really difficult challenges. But if people can just, across the state, particularly in regional Victoria, keep an eye out on that Victorian emergency app and the SES website.

My latest update was that there’s significant rainfall expected in the north-east of the state, but everybody should be aware of those circumstances. That just makes the job of our emergency services heroes, both career and volunteer, just that little bit easier.

Updated

The lack of any direct investment in social housing in this year’s budget has been slammed by a range of charities, homelessness groups and industry stakeholders overnight. The Coalition had been urged to make a major investment in new social housing in this year’s budget, an approach experts said would have stimulated the construction sector, helped those in severe housing stress due to Covid-19, and addressed the chronic shortage of social housing for people on low incomes.

The government responded only through a $1bn extension of the commonwealth government guarantee supporting the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation’s (NHFIC), which experts said was not enough to drive the construction of new social and affordable housing.

The St Vincent de Paul Society said the “the absence of funding for social housing defies logic”.

“We continue to hold that a significant investment in social housing would have provided a shot in the arm for the construction industry, immediately boosting jobs including apprenticeships, and helped to address the chronic shortage of social housing for people on low incomes,” St Vincent de Paul Society national president Clair Victory said. Mission Australia described the lack of social housing investment as a “shocking failure”, which will push more people into homelessness.

“Investing in 30,000 social homes within the next four years is an obvious solution that will not only help to end homelessness in Australia but will also create vital jobs in the construction industry,” Mission Australia chief executive James Toomey said.

The Community Housing Industry Association said social housing funding would have provided a crucial support to the construction industry, which accounts for 9% of Australian jobs and is forecast to experience a 27% dip in home building, according to the Master Builders Association.

“Investing in social housing is the right thing to do now,” the association’s chief executive, Wendy Hayhurst, said. “There is almost infinite demand for the product; a build program can ramp up quickly – our members have already identified almost 12,000 units they could start in six months; activity can be targeted where the economic impacts are most badly needed and it is creating additional activity - not simply bringing forward homes that will get built anyway.”

Updated

Daniel Andrews press conference

The Victorian premier has stepped up for his morning update.

I think it is the 97th day straight now.

The budget sell started very early this morning.

Here is some of Scott Morrison on ABC radio:

Q: This budget is hoping to create 950,000 jobs over four years. How many of them will be created in the next 12 months?

Morrison:

What we will see happen, I think, is hundreds of thousands jobs continue to come back into the labour market, into the economy, just like we’ve seen over the last three months. 760,000 jobs have been, come back into the market. We’ve seen jobs that reduced to zero hours come back and be real hours in jobs now, 760,000 of them. And on measured employment, 60% of those jobs that have come back have been for women. And so we’re going to continue to see that happen because the plan is about creating jobs now. Hiring people, bringing forward investment, bringing forward those tax cuts. Bringing forward the things that will get people in jobs.

Q: But is $100 to $200 a week for an employer enough for them to take a risk and hire someone?

Morrison:

Absolutely. And that – this is, this is what the transformation is in this budget. We’re moving from not just keeping people in jobs, but getting people into jobs. And this is going to provide that additional incentive. But when you take it together with all the other things that are in this budget, the incentives for investment, the ability to use your current losses to access further capital, to be able to invest in your business and keep staff in in their jobs and to actually put more staff on your payroll. All of that works together to ensure more people will be in jobs.

Updated

Etihad Airways to stop all flights to Brisbane

Etihad Airways will stop all flights to Brisbane because the route is commercially unviable, as Australia continues to limit the number of passengers airlines can bring into the country.

Despite the recent increase in the cap on arrivals from 4,000 to 5,500 passengers per week, Etihad’s decision to pull out of its Abu Dhabi to Brisbane route for commercial reasons follows Malaysia Airlines’ decision in September to halt flights to Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide in light of the introduction of the arrival caps.

An Etihad spokesman told Guardian Australia:

“As part of an ongoing review of network performance, Etihad Airways will cancel its flights from Abu Dhabi to Brisbane. The decision to cancel the route is a commercial one, and a direct consequence of the impact of Covid-19 on global travel and tourism demand ... We will work closely with impacted guests and travel agents to notify them of the changes to their itineraries and re-accommodate them on alternative flights.”

The spokesman noted Etihad will continue to fly to Sydney and Melbourne, however the latter city has not been accepting any international passengers since the escalation of its second wave of Covid-19.

The arrival caps, which are limits enforced by the commonwealth but initially requested by states to ease pressure on their hotel quarantine systems, have left at least 28,000 Australians stranded overseas, with economy and increasingly business class passengers reporting being repeatedly bumped off their flights home.

As a result of the caps, planes are landing at Australian airports with as a few as 30 passengers, and as few as four economy passengers.

Frustrated Airlines have acknowledged they are prioritising more expensive tickets to remain profitable under the cap, with Qatar Airways chief executive also warning the caps threatened the viability of flying to Australia.

Updated

More from Mike Bowers this morning.

Updated

Daniel Andrews will hold his press conference at 10.30am.

Updated

Also in the budget – the states can expect to see their GST share drop.

Which will make the “spend big on infrastructure” thing they have been ordered to do a little difficult.

Not only that, stamp duty has fallen, because, well, it’s a recession.

Just watch the states. They will all be handing down their budgets now – and they don’t have a lot of money to move with.

But a reminder: money is very, very cheap at the moment.

Updated

As we look at who has lost out in this budget – mostly workers over 35 and women – it is worth looking at some of the pension changes the Coalition have made since coming to government seven years ago.

As of July 2021, you have to be 66.5 years old before you can get the pension. In 2023, you have to be 67.

So we are working later – and in reality, we will be working into our 70s. Which is fine if it is your choice. But if it’s not, and you will be relying on the pension to help supplement your income, if you can’t work, you have to wait longer for it.

But chances are, if you have lost your job in your 60s, it is going to be very, very difficult to be re-hired. The data plays that out. In this pandemic, young people have lost their job – but they also tend to work in industries like hospitality and tourism, which skews towards younger earners anyway. Those jobs will come back as restrictions lift – and now employers will get up to $200 a week to hire a worker they were going to hire anyway. (Think of the labour credit as a cheaper version of jobkeeper – jobkeeper ends in March next year and it looks like this is one way to keep the spirit of the program, without actually the spend.)

An older worker though, forced to work until their mid-60s before they are eligible for the pension, is going to have a much harder time getting a job. And there is no incentive to hire them.

Updated

Given that women have been more adversely impacted than men during the pandemic, this, from Jenny McAllister, is going to be another recurring theme:

There are very limited initiatives for Australian women in the budget. The Women’s Economic Security Statement – much fanfare about that – the government is spending half the amount on that statement that they are on an initiative to improve the IT resources at Services Australia. This is a government that is not taking women’s interests into account when they are making economic decisions.

Updated

At caucus earlier this week, Anthony Albanese told his colleagues to prepare for a shift in the opposition’s narrative. In short, Labor might actually start opposing some things.

Or at the very lease, the “constructive” opposition Albanese said he wanted to create seems to be making way for attack lines.

Here was Albanese on the Nine Network this morning:

Q: Now, you called it the “Morrison recession”. And we had him on the show earlier. He said you should be embarrassed by that comment.

Albanese:

Why? Doesn’t he want to be the prime minister. It is the Morrison recession. This recession will be longer and deeper and this government was slow to react. We had a doubling of the debt last year. Wages stagnant last year and consumer confidence going down and productivity going backwards. That is how we entered this period. He was very reluctant to put on wage subsidies. Now he is withdrawing wage subsidies too early. He is withdrawing and lowering the unemployment benefits, jobseeker, too early. And for a whole bunch of people, if you are over 35 out there, first you get your wage subsidy decreased and then it disappears entirely next March. If you are unemployment benefits you are back to $40 a day. Then you have to compete with people who are being subsidised, competing for work. We should not throw people on the scrap heap. It is the big danger with recession, is that people go into unemployment and are unable to get back into the workforce. Where is the women’s workforce participation program in this budget? There is nothing.

Q: Morrison’s recession, it is cheap during a pandemic.

Albanese:

Have you ever used “Keating recession” about the 1990s? I think you have. There were global circumstances there as well. I mean, this is a mob that have spoken about debt of $200bn as being a crisis and they blamed Rudd. They speak about Labor’s debt. But they are racking up debt of $1tn that they don’t want to be associated with any of it. The fact is that they had doubled the debt last year. They didn’t have a plan for the economy. And there is still no major reform plan here. One would have thought out of this recession you should be looking at “OK, how do we build a stronger Australia? What is the big reform measure out of this budget?” I can’t see one.

Updated

The rolling 14-day average for Melbourne is now 9.9.

For regional Victoria, it is 0.3.

In total, Victoria’s rolling 14-day average is 10.2 with 143 new cases reported in the last 14 days.

Authorities are aiming for an average of five and under in order to ease restrictions in Melbourne though, so 19 October, the date which has been earmarked for that occurring, is still looking iffy.

The original date on the roadmap was a week later – and that is looking more likely. But we won’t know until we know.

Updated

Victoria reports six new cases and two deaths

After the 15 cases reported yesterday, today’s Covid case numbers are back where authorities want them.

The two deaths are too many – as is any death.

Yesterday there were 6 new cases & the loss of 2 lives reported. Our thoughts are with all affected.
The 14 day rolling average & number of cases with unknown source are down from yesterday in Metro.
Info: https://t.co/eTputEZdhs #COVID19VicData pic.twitter.com/YiUQZCagjS

— VicGovDHHS (@VicGovDHHS) October 6, 2020

Updated

These will never stop

#Budget2020 is about helping Australians to get a job or stay in a job.

The Morrison Government’s message to Australians is that we have your back & that we have a plan to rebuild our economy & to secure Australia's future.

Find out more 👉 https://t.co/fVbBtt90mV pic.twitter.com/7Uadwxfs9N

— Josh Frydenberg (@JoshFrydenberg) October 6, 2020

Oof, the shade.

This should not be ignored though. This change will have a generational impact.

And humanities students don’t just go into humanitarian fields – more and more, the new tech and finance fields want arts and humanities students, to help round out gaps in their skill sets.

It’s short-sighted, and will only cause more problems.

Couldn’t agree more. https://t.co/keUndQfkSw

— Jacqui Lambie (@JacquiLambie) October 6, 2020

Updated

For those unfamiliar with budget morning, what happens is the TV networks set up studios on the lawns outside parliament house, and the treasurer and prime minister, and opposition leader and shadow treasurer, visit each for one-on-one interviews.

It happens no matter what the weather.

Nothing new really gets said - by the day after the budget morning, all the leaders are across the talking points, and they make sure to hammer them home hard. They’ve also read the flash analysis from the night before, so have a fairly good idea what they’ll be asked.

Some Mike Bowers magic on this dreary Canberra day.

The Singin’ in the Rain routine needs some work. Two stars

Lisa Millar also asked Scott Morrison what was in the budget for older workers.


Millar: We talk about that generation and the young people and the help that’s there for them. What do you say to a 52-year-old who worked at Qantas who doesn’t have a job, there’s nothing in this budget for them? And we have seen from the last recession that that can end up being a devastating long-term period of unemployment for older people.

Morrison:

Well, I know for a fact that there are many at Qantas who still remain at Qantas because of the jobkeeper program. And you remain an employee of a business that the job-hiring credit applies to new jobs on top of those existing.

Millar:

Yeah, but jobkeeper ends in March … and then

Morrison:

Let me finish the answer. They won’t be able to take the numbers down and then increase them and expect to get the hiring credit.

It’s about new jobs, but one of the reasons the jobtrainer program, that’s a billion dollars together with the states, that’s 340,000 training places right now.

That will often be used by those who are moving between careers and so it may be someone who’s working in the aviation sector or the hospitality sector or working in a travel agency or something of that nature and training to work in a different part of the economy which is growing.

But if you don’t grow the economy, there won’t be these extra jobs and what we’re doing over particularly these next two years, which is where 90% of the spending is additionally in this budget, it’s been temporary and very targeted, that’s to ensure the economy can move forward and there’ll be more jobs in the economy whether you’re 55 or whether you’re 25, or even 65.

Updated

Scott Morrison was asked this morning about everything needing to go right – a vaccine next year being one of the key lynchpins – for the budget to have a hope of succeeding in its goal – to put Australia on the road to economic recovery:

I want to be very clear about this: the bringing forward of tax cuts and the tax cuts that are in this budget, the support for hiring new employees with their jobmaker hiring credit, the instant asset write-off taken to ferric levels to ensure businesses can write off everything to create jobs, none of this is dependent on a vaccine or not.

There’s always assumptions in the budget, there’s assumptions about many things but this budget is a plan and that plan is not on those assumptions.

This plan is dependent on doing things to do to get the economy moving, to get people back into jobs, to recover by bringing forward those hiring and investing decisions and bringing forward those Tucks so people can keep more of what they earn and to ensure we’re building the economy for the future.

With everything from our digital transformation changes, the investments and changes we’re making in training and education, a billion dollars extra in research for universities, almost half a billion to support the CSIRO who’s other corporate revenues will be affected by the Covid-19 recession, and building for the future.

We’re going to come out of this stronger and have another generation [of growth], our plan is to over the next 20, 30 years, that Australia can once again move into just like we had over the last 30 years.

Updated

Then there is this reaction

Greens leader @AdamBandt pioneers, on @RNBreakfast, his summary of Budget2020: "All brown and trickle-down"
😶

— Annabel Crabb (@annabelcrabb) October 6, 2020

Anthony Albanese, speaking to ABC News Breakfast, sums up how Labor will be treating the budget.

Well, the budget itself says that there’s going to be a trillion dollars of debt but 160,000 people will join the unemployment queue between now and Christmas. And then once again, just as we saw with previous government measures, people being left behind, there’ll be more people left behind or held back by the budget.

There’s no plan for women’s workforce participation in this budget, there’s in no plan for climate change, and if you’re over 35, first of all, you have had your jobkeeper cut, you’ll get your jobkeeper removed or wage subsidies removed in March, unemployment benefits will go back to being $40 a day, pushing people into poverty, and then you’ll have to compete against other people trying to – trying to get back into the workforce when others are subsidised but if you’re over 35 you get nothing. You get thrown on the scrap heap.

... We’ll support the tax cuts. We called for states for the tax cuts to be brought forward, but I got to say, this is a government that doesn’t like scrutiny. This is a government that doesn’t like accountability. There’s a reason why we have the budget on Tuesday night every year, we had the budget reply on the Thursday night which is the commencement of debate on budget measures. That’s what’s happened every year. That’s the way our parliamentary democracy works.

So, it doesn’t go far enough, but the opposition will support its passage.

Updated

If the budget all seems a little much to take in, try this on for size – the budget in six charts.

Updated

The Greens senator Rachel Siewert has some very clear views on other people who missed out in the budget:

It is unconscionable that the government did not include a permanent increase to jobseeker in the budget.

If we can fund billions of dollars worth of tax cuts for the wealthy we can ensure that no one in this country is living in poverty.

Budgets are about the choices we make. This is a budget that ignores people trying to survive without work when we know that there will be far more people without work than there are jobs available for a long time into the future.

Everybody knows that the jobseeker payment is too low, even the Government does because they brought in the coronavirus supplement.

This budget is based on very big assumptions that there will be a vaccine by next year and that the expenditure on Jobseeker will be half by the next budget.

While disabled people can make use of the extra $500 in this budget it does not make up for the fact they did not receive the coronavirus supplement and the extra costs they had to wear. Disabled people feel abandoned by this government, they are extremely anxious about both the health risks of this pandemic and their ability to get their medication and pay rent. $500 is not enough.

Updated

The Business Council of Australia is absolutely thrilled with this budget.

But asked on Sydney radio 2GB about the lack of incentives for workers aged over 35, Jennifer Westacott said:

Look I think you’ve got to target those people who have been overwhelmingly affected by this pandemic. And they have been young people in sectors like hospitality and tourism. The really important thing we need to do now is get businesses going again. Because they employ the bulk of Australians. And we’ve also got to target those skills packages. Particularly to people who are older, who’ve got less skills. So if you take the budget in its totality, I do think it has provided for those people but it has of course specially targeted those young people who are very vulnerable for not being able to get back into work.

Meanwhile, once upon a time …

I know it is a bit much for her to be morally consistent but. https://t.co/jKpD1iHTu7 https://t.co/UmUUfDSMfe pic.twitter.com/U7WUbxPPXP

— Josh Taylor (@joshgnosis) October 6, 2020

It’s almost as if she doesn’t actually believe in anything, and so can just switch up her views to fit into whatever narrative is needed for attention.

Updated

High from being retweeted and quoted by Donald Trump, who proved he had learned more about the seriousness of Covid by forcing public employees to drive him around in a sealed vehicle, and then removing his mask for a photo op, Miranda Devine continues to do Australia proud, making even a Fox News host raise an eyebrow.

"It's incredibly selfish of older people or neurotic people who are timid & afraid & won't come out of their basements to confine children & young people to miss out on the most important part of their lives" - Fox News is now straight up blaming old & vulnerable people for Covid pic.twitter.com/mLhiwDHmrN

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 6, 2020

Updated

Josh Frydenberg was on the Nine Network defending the lack of support for childcare in the budget.

Apparently, it’s not needed because tax cuts and other reasons:

“Because of the success of the budget it has made childcare more affordable. I understand the challenges in childcare and I have been through those issues myself,” he said

Frydenberg’s salary is $433,000 a year.

Good morning

The post-budget media merry-go-round has begun in earnest.

Both Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg have been go, go, go since before 7am with Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers also stepping up to offer their views.

Not that anything has changed. The government’s answer to the economic crisis is tax cuts and business write-offs, based on the assumption everything turns around next year and starts going right, and Labor doesn’t think it’s enough but is “inclined” to support it.

It’s all being thrown together in a big omnibus bill which will be introduced this morning and passed with no dramas, based on current indications.

We’ll have more of the reactions this morning. There’s also what’s happening with Covid in Australia – Victoria is still not out of the woods with 19 October looking increasingly less likely as a date on which everything starts getting easier in Melbourne. There looks to be, on the current numbers, as the Butcher’s Club outbreak continues, at least one more week of lockdown beyond that.

Meanwhile, Centre Alliance’s decision to support the university changes, meaning humanities students will now pay 113% more for their degree (American-style uni debts, come on down!) means that bill will pass – but it should probably get some more attention. Rebekha Sharkie avoided most media asking her to explain the decision yesterday, but just because the budget was handed down, doesn’t mean it should be ignored.

We’ll bring you all the day’s events as they happen – as well as what else was in the budget and the implications of some of those less-noticed changes. Population growth has been absolutely smashed, for example, and that has some pretty big implications for both the nation’s major cities and regional hubs.

The budget might paint a rosy picture of life beyond the second half of next year – but the detail behind it reveals just how long and bumpy it’s going to be.

You’ve got Amy Remeikis with you today, as well as access to the entire Guardian brains trust. I’m going to grab another coffee, not that it will help, but it will at least make me feel like I’m doing something to ease the sense of existential dread 2020 has created.

Ready? Let’s get into it.

Updated

Contributors

Michael McGowan and Amy Remeikis

The GuardianTramp

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