Australian election campaign: day 11 – as it happened

A couple of views of Malcolm Turnbull on the hustings, the first from Fairfax photographer Andrew Meares, and the second from the prime minister’s official photographer, Sahlan Hayes.

Back to the collision near Maitland, a quick update.

Meanwhile, how things roll on the wombat trail.

An intriguing news break that I haven’t yet had a chance to get to. BuzzFeed’s Mark Di Stefano has a letter which reveals government minister, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, asked her staff to sign confidentiality agreements on Christmas Eve, ahead of a bruising preselection battle. One informant has expressed consternation to BuzzFeed. “Why were we being slapped with this the day before Christmas? It was highly unusual and the threatening subtext of the letter was basically demanding loyalty.”

Mark Di Stefano:

Several people received the letter many months after leaving Fierravanti-Wells’s office. According to Australian government protocol, staffers are to sign confidentiality agreements before they start working in an MP’s office and “on separation” from employment. BuzzFeed News asked several former ministerial chiefs of staff, who said they’d never heard of agreements being sent out months after employees had left.

According to one recipient, it was the unusual timing of the letter that had several people asking questions.

“It was to reiterate that we weren’t to talk about the manoeuvring in the office because she was going into pre-selection,” the recipient said.

A postcard from the electorate of Indi. Allow me to introduce the unknown candidate of Indi: Labor’s Eric Kerr. He is struggling for oxygen between two very high-profile candidates, the independent MP Cathy McGowan and the Liberal candidate Sophie Mirabella, with the Nationals’ Marty Corboy coming up in the middle.

Kerr is just 22 and has been a Wodonga councillor since he was 18. He says the issues in Wodonga are wide and varied over the 28,000 sq km electorate but he has one issue very close to his heart: marriage equality. He was raised by two mothers and finds it hard to believe same-sex marriage is still an issue in 2016. “As a 22-year-old in 2016, that’s the issue you should be able to say click, that’s done, that makes sense,” he told Guardian Australia.

“I don’t think it’s a [problem] in Indi. You have Marty who is a former Family First candidate, from quite a conservative background, not for same-sex marriage. Sophie is still holding her ground [against] I’m pretty sure.

“I’m not happy with Cathy at the moment because she is in favour of a plebiscite. You can support the right of same-sex marriage but you can’t then give the green light for an attack from the Christian lobby against all our families.

“It doesn’t make sense. For a conservative seat, the voices for same-sex marriage are few and far between. Jenny O’Connor [Greens] is for it and Alan [Lappin, independent] is for.”

Let’s move on from Maitland now unless there are any developments, which of course I’ll keep you across. Lenore Taylor has the latest in our series of campaign essays; this time she’s put Nick Xenophon under the microscope.

If Malcolm Turnbull wins the election, Nick Xenophon could help him introduce emissions trading, stop some of his company tax cuts, frustrate his attempts to cut Gonski schools funding and stall some of his sweeping changes to superannuation. If Bill Shorten wins, Xenophon could force big changes to Labor’s centrepiece policy on negative gearing.

And those nation-shaping or agenda-cruelling possibilities are what Guardian Australia has learned from just a few snatched conversations with the hyper-busy senator.

At this year’s election, the amiable lawyer who began his political career as an anti-pokies crusader and now leads an eponymous party is likely to become the head of a significant new political force. And, unlike the Palmer United party, which shot to prominence after the last election, possibly one with a chance at surviving the pressures of office.

So it seems fitting to ask: what would he do with his power?

If you’d like to read on you can find the piece here.

This picture records the Shorten convoy leaving the scene a few minutes ago.

From the scene, ABC reporter Stephen Dziedics.

We are just getting a few more details about what happened. It seems that as the opposition leader’s convoy was pulling over for a press conference that was going to be held, we’re told, just metres from where the accident happened, another car attempted to overtake and then went head-on into a third car coming in the opposite direction. Now, we have no word yet on injuries, we have no word yet on whether anyone has been seriously hurt or even worse, but we do know that one woman was trapped in the car for a while, some onlookers estimate it could have been as long as 45 minutes or an hour, and we believe she has been taken away in an ambulance, presumably to hospital. There was also another car involved, the one that actually tried to overtake Bill Shorten’s convoy, there was a woman and a child in that car. It seems that they weren’t seriously injured. At the very least, the doctors and ambulance officers here believe they didn’t think they were. Bill Shorten comforted the woman and her child in this car and they have been taken away from the scene by the opposition leader’s convoy.

Mike Bowers is on the scene at Testers Hollow.

Labor has cancelled all campaign events for the remainder of the day.

From the Maitland Mercury.

A head-on collision has occurred as federal opposition leader Bill Shorten arrived at Testers Hollow on Thursday. A woman is trapped in a blue sedan, which was headed towards Maitland. The occupants of the other vehicle are out of the car.

Shorten’s car was pulling up when the accident occurred. A woman in her mid-20s has sustained minor facial injuries and pain in the knee, Ambulance NSW has confirmed. Two other people injured will not be taken to hospital.

The opposition leader took a woman and her child, who were in the other car, to safety after the Cessnock road accident shortly before 1pm. Paramedics are assessing the woman, who has injuries under her arm.

Shorten has not left her side since the accident occurred, offering consolation.

Here’s some more particulars from Fairfax reporter Tom McIlroy, who is travelling with Shorten.

Apparently there has been a vehicle accident near Maitland where Bill Shorten is campaigning. Mike Bowers tells me the Labor leader is comforting some of the people involved in the crash. I’ll keep you posted.

I’ve escaped election watch briefly because the Australian National University is holding a forum to analyse the 2016 budget today at the National Library in Canberra.

It has political and bureaucratic luminaries on its panel, including former high-ranking officials from treasury, the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and a former leader of the Liberal party, John Hewson.

First up, we’ve heard from Jan Harris, former deputy secretary to the treasury. Harris says the criticism of this budget is eerily similar to 2010 (when she was working at treasury) when the government delivered the biggest deficit in Australia’s history.

Some of the familiar complaints she’s hearing? The forecast return to surplus has been pushed back, yet again, into the future, and that means there’s no real fiscal direction in this budget; and the cost of one of the budget’s biggest policies – in this case, the corporate tax cuts – won’t show up until much later down the track, so the true cost of the policy is hidden.

And remember Dr Karl’s ill-fated promotion of the Intergenerational Report, where he warned about the gap between the government’s tax receipts and its spending commitments? “Well, not much has changed in the 2016-17 budget,” she says.

Labor’s deputy leader, Tanya Plibersek, is on the ABC now speaking about the Medicare policy.

Q: Does Labor have a target for bulk-billing? What’s the optimum rate you are striving for?

Plibersek:

When I was health minister we looked to get bulk-billing rates as high as we could. Certainly, you know, up in the high 80s is a good place to be. We are in the mid 80s now. I think it is very important to continue to try and improve bulk-billing rates because we know that it’s very good for patients to be able to visit doctors who are bulk-billing. We know it’s good for the health system overall.

Q: As you say, the current rate is hovering around 84, 85%. A lot of people talk about evidence-based decisions in health. Why not wait until there is evidence it is falling before making such a major financial contribution?

Plibersek:

Because doctors are at breaking point now. We have heard from Professor Brian Owler, the head of the AMA, and he said doctors are just hanging on.

The treasurer, Scott Morrison, is standing up now in Sydney on the subject of Labor’s funny money.

Where he’s [Bill Shorten] is drawing that money from is vapour.

(I’ll get to the Labor policy documents on the Medicare announcement when I get some clear air.)

A couple of behind-the-lines views from Mike Bowers.

While I see the Labor senator Sam Dastyari in this photo I’m reminded that he has a phenomenal capacity to just appear beside you, and just as suddenly, vanish without trace. I can’t explain this quality. I can only tell you it exists.

The Coalition is regrouping on the Medicare policy by characterising it as unfunded spending. The treasurer, Scott Morrison, has had one go at this already this morning. The Coalition’s campaign spokesman, Mathias Cormann, is having a second go on Sky News now. I suspect we’ll hear more about this over the course of the afternoon. I can’t remember if I’ve told you already that we expect treasury to release updated economic forecasts tomorrow, the document known as PEFO.

Right that was all pretty brisk. Lots to decode, give me a minute and I’ll get on to that.

Back to Bill Shorten now.

Q: Can you guarantee that resettlement services won’t suffer under the increased refugee intake?

Bill Shorten:

We costed our policies. The Greens are out there promising everything to everybody. But our policies in terms of refugees are costed. And we submitted it to the parliamentary budget office, so I can guarantee that.

Q: We have seen more of your candidates suggest they have an issue with your asylum seeker policy. Have you personally reached out to them in a bid to change their minds or do you plan to lobby them and convince them that your way is the right way?

Bill Shorten:

I think you see more of my candidates full stop. More seriously, the Labor party went through this issue openly and transparently at our national conference. What Mr Turnbull wants is the sort of issues you are raising. He wants us not to talk about Medicare. He wants us not to talk about properly funding our schools. He doesn’t want us talking about Australian jobs. It is very clear their campaign of deceit and lies will be seen for what it is.

Shorten is asked why bulk-billing rates continue to rise, this suggests there isn’t a problem? The Labor leader says doctors have told him the rebate freeze makes bulk-billing unsustainable.

Bill Shorten is asked whether he can guarantee that fees won’t go up when the rebates are unfrozen. He avoids answering that question directly.

Bill Shorten:

This is avery good announcement for patients, it’s a very good announcement for making sure we have affordable access to general practice in this country and I am going to back the doctors over Malcolm Turnbull any day on this matter.

He’s pressed on this point.

Q: Will the price stay the same? Can you say whether it will stay the same?

Bill Shorten:

Let’s deal with the facts that are here. Our announcement today is one of the big issues in this election. Malcolm Turnbull should reverse the six-year freeze on the rebate because the only outcome of their six-year freeze on the rebate is bulk-billing is in trouble. And if you undermine bulk-billing, you undermine Medicare and Mr Turnbull and his Liberal colleagues know that very well.

This election ... is about choices. I happen to choose and Labor chooses our Medicare system over giving tax cuts to the top end of town. I choose bulk-billing and supporting and saving bulk-billing over giving Australia’s largest banks a $7.5bn tax cut over the next 10 years.

Medicare is a community standard. The PM needs to make a choice and if he’s got the wrong priority an he can’t choose people’s health he needs to get out of his job because Australians deserve better.

Shorten gets questions on David Feeney. Feeney stays in Canberra at a unit owned through the family trust of his wife.

Q: He hasn’t specifically listed or declared the unit, he hasn’t declared the family trust. Are you confident that he’s met his obligations? Were you aware of the unit and have you stayed there?

Bill Shorten:

Thanks for those three questions, Joe. Let’s go to the heart of the matter. I expressed my displeasure yesterday on the report to you and directly to Mr Feeney about his failure to declare a property. I understand in terms of his wife’s declarations today that’s all been done to according to the rules and has adhered to the rules.

Q: Does David Feeney stay there while also claiming a travel allowance understand to be $270 a night?

Bill Shorten:

It is not a practice I do, I have one house, it’s a mortgage, we live in it. But I understand it is a practice amongst members of parliament. I think Mr Turnbull has been in very similar circumstances in the past too.

Shorten is asked how Labor has arrived at the figure that patients, if the freeze is not lifted, will be about $20 out of pocket? He suggests the figure has come from the doctors, but inferentially, not directly.

Q: You have relentlessly criticised the Coalition over the $57bn that was taken out of health. Will you today commit putting that back in or will you not?

Bill Shorten:

We will have more to say about our health policy as this election unfolds. But today there couldn’t be a clearer choice between Labor’s commitment to prioritise Medicare and the Liberals’ commitment to prioritise tax cuts for big business.

I’ll come back to this shortly for some fact-checking and decoding but for now I need to keep moving on. The Labor leader has found the cameras now.

Malcolm Turnbull is asked why a company tax cut is more compelling for voters than extra spending on health and education.

For every dollar cut in company tax, $4 of value is created in the economy overall, and that is why economists, governments including previous Labor governments, have supported company tax cuts.

Q: Just on that same point, John Daley has said the net benefit of tax cut also only behalf of the headline benefits. Is he right?

Malcolm Turnbull:

No, he is wrong.

In case you’ve missed this, John Daley of the Grattan Institute has said the following this morning:

Late last week, Turnbull said that each dollar in company tax revenue cut would deliver an extra four dollars in GDP.

His claim appears to be drawn from an earlier 2015 Treasury research paper that modelled the economic impact of major Australian taxes, including company tax. The more recent Treasury working paper, released in budget week, implies a slightly larger $4.30 increase to GDP from each $1 in revenue cut.

But again this misses a big part of the story.

First, this claim is about GDP, and therefore includes the disproportionate increase in the income of foreigners. Our analysis of the Treasury modelling shows that the increase to Australian incomes, or GNI, is only $2.80 per dollar of revenue lost from a corporate tax cut.

Second, when corporate tax is replaced by a still hypothetical but marginally more realistic flat rate income tax – rather than a complete fantasy tax that has no impact on the economy – the increase to Australian incomes is less again: only $1.80 per dollar of revenue lost.

Third, the prime minister has framed the boost to the economy in terms of the long-term increase to GDP per dollar of company tax cut. Treasury calculates the revenue “dollar” lost after considering the additional tax revenue that the government hopes to collect from all taxes in 20 years time as incomes rise because of greater investment.

Many people would interpret the prime minister’s statement to compare the ultimate benefit per dollar of tax revenue given up in the shorter term. On this basis, the increase to Australian incomes in the long term is only $1.20 for every dollar given up in the short term as a result of corporate tax cuts.

This story ends the same way. Corporate tax cuts may be worth doing, but the outcome is unlikely to set pulses racing.

Malcolm Turnbull is back in front of the cameras, speaking about the government’s economic plan before constructing a segue to roads in western Sydney, and through that, housing affordability. Labor pledged funding for the Appin road yesterday, today it’s the government’s turn.

Malcolm Turnbull:

We are committing $50m – you will see that in The Telegraph this morning, we are committing $50m to upgrade the vehicle separation and safety on that road and that investment will not only improve the safety of the Appin Road and of course protect the lives of the people of Campbelltown and those of this region, it will also unlock 35,000 new homes.

I was talking to one of the developers this morning on the train out here, 1800 homes will become available very shortly. Almost immediately. And 35,000 over the years ahead. Now this is how you address housing affordability. Housing affordability is the result of there being in sufficient supply of housing. You need to have more supply of housing.

It wouldn’t be an election without a bit of outrage.

While the campaign thunders on boats, away from the posturing a new survey shows Australians are among the most welcoming of refugees in the world, with seven in 10 saying the country should do more to assist people fleeing war and persecution, a global Amnesty International survey has found.

The attitude is in stark contrast to government statements this week. Immigration minister Peter Dutton argued refugees are largely uneducated and illiterate, and that accepting more into Australia would see them take jobs from Australians or burden the country’s welfare system.

But more than half of Australian respondents to the Amnesty survey said they would welcome refugees into their neighbourhoods, and more than one in 10 would welcome a refugee to live in their home.

Globally, China, Germany and the UK were found to be the countries with populations most welcoming of refugees, followed by Canada and Australia in fifth place; while Russia, Indonesia and Thailand ranked lowest of the 27 countries surveyed.

The prime minister is in Sydney visiting a business before heading west to Campbelltown later today. He seems to be back on jobs and growth today.

Malcolm Turnbull:

There are no fussier buyers than the Germans, as I’m sure you know.

We’ll take that as a comment.

The treasurer, Scott Morrison, is in Sydney and is holding a press conference which seems to have the singular objective of saying repeatedly that this is the same old Labor. He’s banging it like a preacher in a pulpit, same old Labor, same old Labor, same old Labor.

This line might be more resonant with this listener at least if we hadn’t seen the same old Coalition writ so large during the past 48 hours. I’ll score this encounter same old same old. Yawn.

And with that Herculean effort from Peter Dutton to continue the scare campaign on refugees and turn the election campaign to border protection issues I will leave the blog in the hands of Katharine Murphy.

Until 6am tomorrow it is toodles from me

It is about time a political party had a poet in residence, wouldn’t you agree? Well, one party does.

The Arts party is campaigning on tripling arts funding and Paul Karp writes they are taking quite the novel approach.

The poet-in-residence is Eido Boru and he’s already written a swag of poems for the party’s cause.

One is a haiku:

Want one million votes / For the balance of power / Wear an Arts T-shirt.

Haikus for votes, I love it.

Buckle up. I’m tuning in and will bring you the latest from what I am sure will be a very thorough interview

The national obsession with the alcohol our leaders drink

The most-watched electorate in Australia at the moment is Indi with much enjoyment of the battle between Sophie Mirabella and the Independent who unseated her Cathy McGowan.

But there are other candidates!

Gabrielle Chan has written about Labor candidate Eric Kerr who is gasping for oxygen in this race.

He’s a 22-year-old who has been a councillor since he was 18 and says same-sex marriage should be more of an issue.

I’m not happy with Cathy at the moment because she is in favour of a plebiscite. You can support the right of same-sex marriage but you can’t then give the green light for an attack from the Christian lobby against all our families.

It doesn’t make sense. For a conservative seat, the voices for same-sex marriage are few and far between. Jenny O’Connor [Greens] is for it and Alan [Lappin, independent] is for.

Michaelia Cash was also asked about Peter Dutton’s “illiterate” refugee comments seeing as a big part of the government’s policy to tackle wage theft is to protect migrant workers.

What Peter was basically saying in relation to Labor and the Greens, who would go back to open borders tomorrow?

Cash is redirected with it pointed out Labor won’t have an “open borders policy”.

He was making the economic case we are very proud as a nation; we are resettlement nation. That costs money. As a country we have determined we can properly settle with all the resources 13,750 [people], that’s what we can economically afford, and when you bring in people the right way you can say we will bring in an additional 12,000.

So isn’t Dutton’s characterisation that refugees are “languishing” on the dole incorrect? And what about “stealing Australians job”?

What he was saying was there are some people who come here who struggle with their own language and at same point there are others who would become contributing tax paying citizens, he wasn’t saying it as a negative.

Employment minister, Michaelia Cash, has been speaking on Radio National about the government’s policy to tackle wage theft, intrepid reporter Paul Karp tells me.

The package includes increasing penalties for intentional underpayment by 10 times, an offence holding franchisors responsible where they turn a blind eye to underpayment, and more powers to the Fair Work Ombudsman to gather information including to compel evidence.

Cash gave 7-Eleven a huge slap-down, describing it as a “perfect example” of why new offences to punish franchisors are needed:

The 7-Eleven business model basically dictated the only way you could make a profit was if you undercut wages. Now if a franchisor does this knowingly why is it that they are not held liable?

We’ll bring you a news story on the full policy later this morning.

The prime minister is on the move

Bill Shorten has given what my colleague Paul Karp calls “a very light and frothy interview” on WSFM in Sydney.

Asked about his surprise pash on the campaign trail from a fan of his called Margot, Shorten said:

My first reaction, other than surprise, was ... I thought Collingwood football club could use her as a tackler somewhere on the team ... she was deceptively strong.

Shorten was also asked to identify a series of audio clips of politicians singing.

We had Craig Emerson singing about the Whyalla wipeout, then Tony Abbott singing his karaoke favourite Suspicious Minds.

Shorten said he’d seen photos of Abbott on the campaign trail and noted that he’d been working out at the gym and his arms looked very muscled.

I always admired Tony’s fitness, just not his policies.

On the asylum seeker policy front, it is centre stage again and Anthony Albanese voted against turnbacks at the national conference.

Now Labor has multiple candidates speaking out against the policy, is that a problem?

Not at all. This is part of our strength. A confident party has a conference broadcast on national television ... and comes out of that process united. What we came out with is a very good position when you look at how we would treat asylum seekers, doubling intake ... having proper oversight and transparency of detention centres.

The latest Essential poll show 41% of voters trust the Liberal party with immigration policy while 28% trust Labor. Is asylum seeker policy a negative for Labor every way they turn?

We have a plan that we’ve put forward and it’s a plan based upon extensive consultation recognising that we made mistakes when we were last in government. We have a view you can be tough on people smugglers without being weak on humanity.

Anthony Albanese is on Radio National talking infrastructure and specifically, the WestConnex, which is an issue of contention in the progressive (ie could vote Greens) parts of his electorate.

Albo has plenty of criticism for the project.

There’s no ideas about what happens when traffic comes out at St Peters, Haberfield, Rozelle. It doesn’t achieve its first objective. Originally what this was about was getting freight to and from the port. We announced a freight link plan to get trucks off the road, that’s the sort of thing that should’ve been done by the commonwealth in partnership with the states.

The current proposal for WestConnex doesn’t go near the port, it stops at St Peters.

This is a careful tightrope Albanese has to walk – Sydney is sorely lacking in infrastructure, particularly for the west and the road proposal is quite popular in the crucial western suburbs. He says the people of western Sydney will not support the plan when they are paying tolls in “excess of three figures a week”.

But when Labor was in government, indeed when Albo was infrastructure minister, the Greens say they provided funds for the project.

That just shows how hopeless they are – we provided $25m for planning, not for construction, not a dollar. We provided funding to get planning for Sydney’s transport plans right.

So does he want the WestConnex project halted? Albanese’s Greens opponent in Grayndler, Jim Casey, wants the project stopped.

Aren’t they duplicitous? The Greens MPs for Newtown and Balmain said if they were elected they would stop the WestConnex project. It’s a state project. The only way it can be stopped is with a decision by the state government.

Josh Frydenberg, minister for resources, energy and northern Australia, is on ABC breakfast. He is defending the government’s record on health as Bill Shorten prepares to announce Labor would end the freeze on Medicare rebates.

What we have shown is that the bulk billing rates and the Medicare funding have increased substantially and at the same time we’ve invested in other areas of health, for example doubling the amount that goes to public dental. We’ve more than doubled the number of PBS drugs that we have listed compared to the Labor’s time in office and of course the $2.9bn that we announced in the budget for public hospitals. So it’s a very strong record in health and we’ve got a number of budget priorities and you’ll hear from Labor plenty of spending promises but also a very big $66bn black hole.

Asked if the Liberal party would reconsider their continued freeze on rebate rate, Frydenberg says the policy laid out by health minister, Sussan Ley, stands.

Lastly, Frydenberg is asked if he agrees with Peter Dutton’s assessment of illiterate job-stealing refugees.

What Peter Dutton and I and all members of the Coalition agree is that the refugee intake has been part of the great Australian success story. It’s built us up as a prosperous, tolerant and cohesive nation and we’ve taken over 850,000 refugees since World War II and the Coalition continues to increase our humanitarian intake from over 13,000 today to 18,000 in a few years. It’s a great story.

I mentioned earlier that David Feeney’s tenants in his $2.3m investment house in Melbourne have put up a sign for the Greens candidate for Batman, Alex Bhathal.

There are more details from the tenants themselves on how that came to pass. One of the four people living there Cam Spurr told Fairfax Media one of his mates put him in touch with Bhathal’s campaign after they found out who owned their house.

I was on the fence about it but another housemate, Catrina, said ‘let’s do it’ ... so I said ‘sure’ and when we got home it was there.

He said the sign, about two metres tall, was larger than he was expecting.

I didn’t know it was going to be that big ... there have been lots of people walking past, putting photos on Twitter.

Hopefully [Feeney] doesn’t mind too much.

Oh Cam, I think he might mind a little bit.

Turnbulls’s welcome to Sydney last night when he landed from far north Queensland

The Australian political editor, Dennis Shanahan, has written that Malcolm Turnbull has shown “the necessary spirit on asylum-seekers for a Coalition leader and confronted suggestions that he is soft on boats”.

He gives Turnbull top marks for his handling of Peter Dutton’s remarks.

There was no lawyerly dissembling for the prime minister yesterday; no awkward body language nor any weasel words as he not only defended Peter ­Dutton’s unvarnished reality about the financial cost of taking refugees, but also refined and ­extended the argument.

The interpretation of Dutton’s comments as one about financial costs is a very generous one.

Shanahan says Shorten was sharp in his attack on Dutton but Turnbull was sharper in his defence.

Dutton will happily be called a xenophobe every day of the election campaign if it means the focus is on boats.

(There has been some consternation about my shortening of the Australian to “the Aus”, one of my dear readers thinks it should be the phonetic “the Oz”. Is there consensus?)