The Guardian view on coup fears in Moldova: another front in Putin’s war | Editorial

The west must not ignore the hybrid attacks by Moscow beyond Ukraine’s southern border

As the anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine approaches, Monday’s visit to Kyiv by the US president, Joe Biden – during which he pledged further military support and a new wave of sanctions on Russia – powerfully testified to US solidarity. Mr Biden’s surprise trip, his first since the war began, was as important for its timing and symbolism as its substance. Indirectly, it will also have offered some reassurance a few hundred miles to the south, in the Moldovan capital, Chișinău.

Amid ominous signals that a hybrid campaign against Ukraine’s strategically crucial neighbour is being stepped up, and suggestions that plans for a Kremlin‑backed coup are in place, Moldova is also in need of western assistance. Earlier this month, its pro-European government resigned, having been relentlessly destabilised through crises largely made in Moscow. A new prime minister has been swiftly appointed. But at the Munich security conference, where the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, met the Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, Mr Blinken became the most senior western official to voice concern over a potential plot to install a Moscow-friendly regime.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, the former Soviet republic of 2.5 million people has been plunged into economic crisis as Russia has restricted energy supplies. Inflation has soared to 30%, and fuel bills have risen to almost the equivalent of a minimum monthly pension. Sunday saw the latest in a succession of street protests allegedly financed and organised by a pro-Russian fugitive oligarch, now living in Israel. As well as protesters bussed in from outside the capital, the demonstrations have also been attended by paramilitary groups and former soldiers.

Cyber-attacks, and disinformation via pro-Russian media outlets have added to the sense of perma-crisis, and Moldova has had to cope with an influx of 700,000 Ukrainian refugees – proportionately more than any other country. Indicating the current level of anxiety, Moldovan airspace was briefly closed last week after a security warning from Kyiv. About 1,500 Russian troops are already stationed in Moldova next to the Ukrainian border, in the unrecognised, Moscow-backed breakaway state of Transnistria.

An outright invasion is unlikely. But familiar features of Mr Putin’s destabilisation playbook in eastern Europe are menacingly present: a frozen conflict that could be reopened; pro-Moscow oligarchs with the money and motive to make trouble, and a sizeable ethnic Russian minority. Mirroring the role of Belarus in the north, a compliant government in Chișinău could allow Mr Putin to exert pressure on Ukraine from the south. Bringing Moldova back into Moscow’s orbit would also bring to an end developing military cooperation with neighbouring Romania, a Nato and EU member.

The new prime minister, Dorin Recean, has pledged to continue Moldova’s pro-European trajectory, after its acceptance as an EU candidate member last year. As the Kremlin continues to weaponise the economic crisis it has helped generate, the west should consider further stepping up levels of humanitarian aid to one of Europe’s poorest countries. It should also offer technical resources and expertise in combating disinformation and cyber-attacks. Inevitably, such assistance will be presented by Moscow as confirmation of the west’s proxy war against Russia. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, recently described Moldova as the west’s new “anti-Russian project”. But the significance of the social unrest on Ukraine’s southern flank must not be ignored.

Contributor

Editorial

The GuardianTramp

Related Content

Article image
The Guardian view on the EU’s oil embargo: ramping up the cost of Putin’s war | Editorial
Editorial: Amid talk of division in the west, this week’s summit offered a show of unity

Editorial

31, May, 2022 @5:28 PM

Article image
The Guardian view on Ukraine’s independence celebration: shadowed by insecurity | Editorial
Editorial: An embattled democracy’s struggles are not a priority for its western allies

Editorial

24, Aug, 2021 @6:01 PM

Article image
The Guardian view on Putin and the world: it’s not just about China | Editorial
Editorial: The Russian president may look isolated over Ukraine, but important players are hedging their bets

Editorial

27, Mar, 2022 @5:30 PM

Article image
The Guardian view on Vladimir Putin’s war: terror without purpose | Editorial
Editorial: The fog of war is thick in Ukraine, but certain strategic and moral truths remain crystal clear

Editorial

31, May, 2023 @5:30 PM

Article image
The Guardian view on Putin’s military escalation: a failing strategy | Editorial
Editorial: Vladimir Putin is placing a losing bet that demoralised Russian conscripts can outfight Ukrainians defending their homeland

Editorial

21, Sep, 2022 @5:46 PM

Article image
The Guardian view on Putin’s home front: new vulnerabilities | Editorial
Editorial: A muted Victory Day parade reflects a sense of unease after recent attacks on Russian soil

Editorial

09, May, 2023 @5:51 PM

Article image
The Guardian view on Putin’s invasion: the struggle is only beginning | Editorial
Editorial: Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine is bringing both civilian suffering and profound geopolitical repercussions

Editorial

27, Feb, 2022 @6:30 PM

Article image
The Guardian view on Nato and Ukraine: a time for solidarity | Editorial
Editorial: Russia’s military buildup is a test of western resolve and Ukraine has suffered enough from territorial aggressions by its neighbour

Editorial

14, Apr, 2021 @5:36 PM

Article image
The Guardian view on Putin’s war in Ukraine: Moscow’s on the losing side | Editorial
Editorial: The mistake was to think Ukrainians were waiting to be liberated by Russian soldiers and that the west was too divided to help

Editorial

07, Mar, 2022 @7:09 PM

Article image
The Guardian view on Vladimir Putin’s crimes: Ukraine’s growing tragedy | Editorial
Editorial: Civilians are already paying the ultimate price for a Russian invasion in breach of international law

Editorial

01, Mar, 2022 @6:53 PM