Four UK energy suppliers collapse; BP sees high winter gas prices – as it happened

Time to wrap up..

Another four energy suppliers have gone bust in a single day as historic gas market highs continue to rip through the UK’s energy market amid fresh fears that Russia may curb gas supplies to Europe.

The energy regulator, Ofgem, said the collapse of four small energy suppliers on Tuesday would leave about 24,000 households in need of a new supplier, and bring the total number of bust energy companies to 17 since the start of September, affecting more than 2 million households.

Zebra Power had the largest customer base, and supplied 14,800 households with energy. Omni Energy supplied about 6,000 domestic pre-payment customers, while AmpowerUK had about 600 UK customers and supplied a further 2,000 overseas households. MA Energy.

The flurry of failures follows rocketing global energy market prices due to a sudden surge in demand for gas as economies began to shrug off restrictions related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Gas markets have reached record highs in recent weeks, leading to one of the sharpest increases in home energy bills and fears of a cost-of-living crisis this winter.

Here’s the full story:

Those surging oil and gas price helped BP to post an 18% jump in underlying profits in the last quarter., beating forecasts.

BP’s CEO Bernard Looney, predicted that gas prices would stay high in the coming months.

He told the Guardian:

“All things being equal, of course that’s a big if, we would expect gas prices to return to normal probably by the summer of next year.”

The energy giant is also planning to reward shareholders with a new $1.25bn buyback programme... although that capital could be used to fund a faster transformation to green energy instead....

Russia added to concerns about the energy crisis, with supplier Gazprom declining to buy extra capacity on pipelines to Europe through Ukraine and Poland for next year. The move could intensify pressure on regulators to sign off its controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine.

In other news....

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer faced fresh criticism from groups such as Amnesty International, after lifting its sales forecast for its Covid vaccine again and reporting a surge in sales and profits.

The campaign group Global Justice Now accused Pfizer of “making a killing” out of “the most lucrative medicine ever produced,” while “most of the world has been locked out of this vaccine”.

Shipping giant Maersk has warned there’s no end in sight to the supply chain crisis, as its ships continue to be held up by delays at ports.

Those problems are also hitting Europe’s manufacturers - output growth at eurozone factories has slowed to its lowest rate in 16 month.

Standard Chartered predicted the recovery would be uneven, helping to send its shares down almost 8% today.

Yahoo is quitting China, due to Beijing’s crackdown on tech companies.

Shares in Tesla have dipped away from its record highs, after Elon Musk cast some doubt over its deal to sell 100,000 cars to Hertz.

But Car rental group Avis have doubled in value, after it pledged to play a bigger role in lifting the adoption of electric cars in the U.S.

Meal kit supplier Hello Fresh also rallied, after lifting its sales targets after strong growth this summer.

But gambling firm Flutter revealed that a run of winning results for favourites last month have knocked £60m off its profits.

Shares in the Hut Group hit an all-time low on Tuesday after it emerged that BlackRock was halving its stake in the online retailer after a rocky month for the company.

A report by climate finance campaigners showed that Barclays has financed more in fossil fuel projects than any of the UK’s largest banks in the months leading up to the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow.

And the Bank of England is facing criticism over the way it is conducting its first climate stress tests, with politicians and campaigners warning that a lack of penalties for dirty assets will give banks little incentive to clean up their act.

Goodnight. GW

This year’s surge in oil and gas prices means BP will hand an extra $1.25bn to investors in the current quarter, through share buybacks.

That’s part of its commitment to return cash to shareholders if oil remains over $60 per barrel.

But as our financial editor Nils Pratley points out -- some of that money could have been used to fund a faster transformation to green energy....

The middle of the Cop26 climate conference was not an ideal moment to demonstrate that producing, refining and trading hydrocarbons remains a spectacularly lucrative business when the stars align. “We’re a cash machine at these types of prices,” declared the BP chief executive, Bernard Looney, cheerfully, referring to oil at $85 a barrel and gas still at multi-year highs.

His description is accurate. The oddity of accounting rules around hedging policies meant BP showed a formal loss in the third quarter of this year, but the surer guide to the current financial bonanza was the underlying profit of $3.3bn (£2.2bn). Remember that BP barely broke even in the equivalent period last year. The vaccine-led recovery in the global economy has transformed the outlook.

So time for BP to revisit its year-old targets for boosting investment in renewables? Use the current excess of cash to up the pace? Well, no, that is not on the agenda. Looney is sticking to what he promised: a doubling of investment in low-carbon projects this year to $2bn, mainly offshore wind and solar, with an increase to $5bn a year by 2030. The extra cash will instead go to shareholders....

More here:

The gas price crunch is just one part of the wider squeeze on the global economy, which continues to suffer disruption from the pandemic.

And today Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping group, warned said there was no end in sight to the global supply chain crisis, as it posted a surge in revenues and profits.

With supply chains struggling, hundreds of Maersk’s ships are laying idle outside ports around the world. They can’t unload their goods due to warehouse congestion, a shortage of dockers to unload goods, and a dearth of lorry divers to transport goods on.

Sky News explains:

The Danish group, which reported record quarterly revenues despite the disruption as its freight rates increased sharply, said current conditions were expected to continue at least until the first quarter of next year.

A lack of lorry drivers is preventing ships from offloading goods at ports around the world, with 300 container vessels currently laying idle, chief executive Soren Skou said.

“The whole system has become one gigantic bottleneck,” Mr Skou added.

He said the biggest problem preventing containers from leaving ports is a lack of labour, particularly drivers of HGV vehicles in the US and Britain despite salaries having been raised “significantly”.

The energy crunch has claimed another four, small UK suppliers.

Omni Energy Limited, MA Energy Limited, Zebra Power Limited, and Ampoweruk Ltd have all announced they are ceasing to trade, regulator Ofgem says.

This will affect over 23,400 customers, who will now be moved to a new supplier by Ofgem.

It means that 19 energy suppliers have collapsed since the start of August, due to the surge in wholesale gas prices that have hammered the sector -- with BP predicting the market will remain ‘tight’ this winter.

Neil Lawrence, director of retail at Ofgem, said:

“Ofgem’s number one priority is to protect customers. We know this is a worrying time for many people and news of a supplier going out of business can be unsettling.

“I want to reassure affected customers that they do not need to worry: under our safety net we’ll make sure your energy supplies continue. If you have credit on your account the funds you have paid in are protected and you will not lose the money that is owed to you.

“Ofgem will choose a new supplier for you and while we are doing this our advice is to wait until we appoint a new supplier and do not switch in the meantime. You can rely on your energy supply as normal. We will update you when we have chosen a new supplier, who will then get in touch about your tariff.

“Any customer concerned about paying their energy bill should contact their supplier to access the range of support that is available.”

Omni Energy supplies around 6,000 domestic pre-payment customers, MA Energy supplies around 300 non-domestic customers, Zebra Power Limited supplies around 14,800 domestic customers, and Ampoweruk Ltd supplies around 600 domestic customers, and around 2000 non-domestic customers.

Car rental firm Avis Budget Group is having QUITE the day on Wall Street.

Shares in Avis surged by 200% (!) in early trading, in frenzied trading after the company said it would play a bigger role in lifting the adoption of electric cars in the U.S.

Chief Executive Officer Joe Ferraro told analysts on a call today that:

You’ll see us going forward be much more active in electric scenarios as the situation develops over time.”

Last night, Avis reported that its revenues almost doubled year-on-year in the third quarter, as it posted its best adjusted EBITDA earnings ($1.057bn).

This has prompted a surge in trading reminiscent of previous memestock rallies -- triggering a number of trading halts for volatility.

At one stage, Avis briefly became the largest component of the Russell 2000 Index. It’s now slipped back a little, but still up 91% today....

Shares in Tesla have been on a rollicking run recently - up over 40% in October alone

But they’re under some pressure today, down 2.5% today, after CEO Elon Musk cast some uncertainty over its deal with car rental firm Hertz, which drove Tesla’s value over $1trn.

Musk tweeted last night that ‘no contract has been signed yet’ with Hertz, who announced a 100,000 vehicle order last week.

Hertz, though, says it is ‘on plan’ to offer 100,000 Tesla electric vehicles by the end of 2022, saying:

As we announced last week, Hertz has made an initial order of 100,000 Tesla electric vehicles and is investing in new EV charging infrastructure across the company’s global operations,”

Deliveries of the Teslas already have started. We are seeing very strong early demand for Teslas in our rental fleet, which reflects market demand for Tesla vehicles.

Separately, Tesla has also ‘recalled’ almost 12,000 cars to fix a software problem that caused false forward-collision warning or the unexpected activation of the emergency brakes.

The problem, fixed with an ‘over-the-air’ software update, related to vehicles running the latest version of Tesla’s limited early access Full-Self Driving (Beta), which automates some driving tasks.

The carmaker rolled back the latest update, shortly after it was released last month, after users complained of false collision warnings and other issues.

Russia’s Gazprom has declined to book extra pipeline capacity to send gas to Europe next year through Ukraine and Poland.

Gazprom decided against booking additional gas transit capacity for January-September 2022 at auctions today.

That indicates it doesn’t intend to supply more than contractual volumes through those routes, despite signs that Moscow was preparing to increase exports to the region.

The move will keep Europe’s energy markets on edge, as colder temperatures will drive up demand for gas for heating in the coming months.

It could also indicate that Russia is preparing to ship gas through its new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, or trying to put pressure on German regulators to approve it.

Bloomberg has the details:

While President Vladimir Putin has said his country is ready to deliver all of the gas that Europe needs, especially when demand peaks, Gazprom didn’t reserve any extra capacity to send fuel to Europe in the first quarter next year via Ukraine and Poland, according to the results of several capacity auctions on Tuesday.

It can still book those capacities at forthcoming monthly sales, although allocations and actual flows have been limited since September in what is seen as a contributing factor in Europe’s gas supply squeeze. That prompted accusations from some in Europe that the country is using the region’s energy crunch to advance approval for the contentious Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany.

The first quarter, when gas consumption typically increases, will be key for Russia as it seeks to start Nord Stream 2 and re-direct at least some transit flows to the link.

Gas for next-day UK delivery are now up almost 8% at 167p per therm - roughly three times higher than in January.

They fell to a near two-month low of 139p/therm last Friday, after Russian president Vladimir Putin told Gazprom officials to pump more supplies into the EU, after it fills its domestic depots by November 8th.

Nord Stream 2, which runs on the bed of the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, is awaiting certification from Germany. Critics, such as the US, fear regulatory approval will only reinforce Europe’s dependence on Russia and undermine Ukraine by making its pipelines redundant.

Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director at Fitch ratings agency, says (via Reuters):

“Gazprom is presumably betting on Nord Stream 2 coming online fairly soon – and does not want to assume additional obligations as of now as the Ukraine transit route and the Yamal-Europe pipeline are likely to be used as balancing routes once Nord Stream 2 is up and running,”

Yahoo Inc. is pulling out of China, citing an “increasingly challenging business and legal environment” after Beijing imposed tighter controls.

Yahoo ceased offering its services in China on Monday, and users in China now see a message saying its sites are no longer accessible.

In a statement, it says: “Yahoo remains committed to the rights of our users and a free and open internet. We thank our users for their support.”

This makes Yahoo the second well-known US technology firm to curb its China operations recently, after Microsoft’s LinkedIn last month.

Associated Press has more details:

Chinese authorities maintain a firm grip on internet censorship in the country and require companies operating in China to censor content and keywords deemed politically sensitive or inappropriate.

“In recognition of the increasingly challenging business and legal environment in China, Yahoo’s suite of services will no longer be accessible from mainland China as of November 1,” the company said in a statement.

It said it “remains committed to the rights of our users and a free and open internet.”

The company’s withdrawal coincided with the implementation of China’s Personal Information Protection Law, which limits what information companies can gather and sets standards for how it must be stored.

Chinese laws also stipulate that companies operating in the country must hand over data if requested by authorities, making it difficult for Western firms to operate in China as they may also face pressure back home over giving in to China’s demands.

Although Yahoo isn’t the major player it once was, it still runs a range of news sites, an email service, and website such as TechCrunch, Autoblog and Engadget.

This move highlights the pressures on tech firms as Beijing demands tighter control on customer data and privacy.

Liza Lin, the Wall Street Journal’s China correspondent, tweets that it “illustrates the trade off foreign companies face” if they want to operate in China.

Pharmaceuticals giant Pfizer has lifted its full-year sales forecast for its Covid-19 jab by 7.5%, after seeing revenues and profit soar at its vaccine division.

Pfizer’s revenues more than doubled year-on-year in the July-September quarter, up 130% to $24.1bn. Most of that was due to Comirnaty, its Covid-19 vaccine -- if you exclude it, revenues were up 7% to $11.1bn.

Adjusted income was up 133% year-on-year, at almost $7.7bn for the quarter.

Pfizer now expects to bring in $36bn of revenue from the vaccine this year, after recently signing deals to roll out booster doses, and receiving clearances for children to receive it in some countries.

The company said it is also on track to deliver 2.3 billion doses of the vaccine.

My colleague Julia Kollewe explains:

The Covid jab, called Comirnaty and developed with Germany’s BioNTech, contributed $13bn of revenues in the three months to 30 September. That was more than half of Pfizer’s total revenues of $24bn in the quarter, which rose 134% from a year earlier. In the first six months of the year, Corminaty revenues were $11.3bn.

Pfizer raised its 2021 forecast for Corminaty sales from $33.5bn in July, as it expects to deliver 2.3bn doses this year. Together with BioNTech, it continues to expect to manufacture 3bn doses by the end of December, although not all of them will be delivered by then.

More here:

Pfizer has also lifted its full-year revenue forecasts to $81bn–$82bn, from $78bn to $80bn, and raised its earnings guidance to $4.13 to $4.18 per share, up from $3.95 to $4.05.

Dr. Albert Bourla, chairman and chief executive officer of Pfizer, said:

“While we are proud of our third quarter financial performance, we are even more proud of what these financial results represent in terms of the positive impact we are having on human lives around the world.

For example, more than 75% of the revenues we have recorded up through third-quarter 2021 for Comirnaty have come from supplying countries outside the U.S., and we remain on track to achieve our goal of delivering at least two billion doses to low- and middle-income countries by the end of 2022 -- at least one billion to be delivered this year and one billion next year, with the possibility to increase those deliveries if more orders are placed by these countries for 2022.

One billion of these doses will be supplied to the U.S. government at a not-for-profit price to be donated to the world’s poorest nations at no charge to those countries.

However, a report last month showed that wealthy countries had only distributed a small number of the vaccines promised to the developing world so far.

Sterling has slipped to a three-week low against the US dollar, as traders ponder whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates on Thursday.

Hawkish comments from some BoE policymakers (such as Michael Saunders), and rising inflationary pressures, lifted the chances of a rate hike.

But with other Monetary Policy Committee members (Catherine Mann and Silvana Tenreyro) urging a cautious approach, a rise isn’t nailed on.

Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, predicts the committee will be split, but a majority will vote to leave borrowing costs unchanged.

They’ll want to wait for more information on the impact of ending the furlough scheme this autumn, he explains. Plus, higher interest rates don’t tackle some of the factors driving up inflation (such as supply chain problems and shortages).

In its last meeting in September, the MPC judged that it would be desirable to assess the impact of the end of the furlough scheme before changing policy. But data to make that assessment are still lacking. And given the growing cost of living pressures faced by households from higher inflation, rising energy bills and forthcoming tax rises, raising interest rates now could exacerbate pressures and risk knocking confidence – and the recovery – off course.

The risks of continuing a ‘wait-and see’ approach for a few more months are comparably low. The global forces pushing inflation up are largely beyond the ability of monetary policy to influence, and there is little evidence of inflation expectations among the public breaking out.

Meanwhile, tightening policy when other major central banks are still in loosening mode would seem incongruous, particularly when the UK economy was more affected by the pandemic than the US and the eurozone.

The pound has slipped by 0.4 of a cent to $1.363. UK government bond yields have also dipped this morning.

Output growth at factories across the eurozone has slowed to its lowest rate in 16 months, as supply chain issues continue to disrupt manufacturing.

Output and new order growth both lost momentum again in October, while delays receiving supplies lengthened drastically, according to the latest survey of purchasing managers at eurozone manufacturers.

Companies blamed low availability of shipping containers, widespread shortages of components and raw materials, and problems with transportation -- a time when there are delays at ports and shortages of lorry drivers.

Firms also hiked their own prices at a record pace, after seeing unprecedented jumps in input costs.

Backlogs of work rose, as firms struggled to get hold of the parts and materials they needed. But new orders, and export orders, both grew at the slowest rate since the start of the year, and business confidence slid to a one-year low.

So, IHS Markit’s eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to an eight-month low of 58.3, from 58.6 in September, showing slower growth.

Production growth was the weakest since June 2020, dropping to 53.3 from September’s 55.6 (50 shows stagnation), and shrank in France:

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit says the supply chain woes are hurting growth, and pushing up prices.

“Eurozone manufacturers reported a worsening of the supply chain situation in October, which curbed production growth sharply during the month. Average delivery times for raw materials lengthened at a rate exceeded only twice in almost a quarter of a century of survey data as companies reported demand once again running ahead of supply for a wide variety of inputs and components. Production constraints at suppliers were reported alongside a growing list of logistical issues.

These include a lack of shipping containers and inadequate freight capacity, port congestion, driver shortages and broader transport delays linked mainly to the pandemic.

These shortages have led to the weakest rise in factory output since the recovery began in July of last year, and also pushed inflationary pressures to new survey highs, raising further questions about just how transitory the recent spike in inflation will be.

Standard Chartered Bank are the top FTSE 100 faller, down 8%, after the emerging markets-focused lender warned that the economic recovery from the pandemic remains uneven.

Standard Chartered reported a 44% jump in underlying pre-tax profits in the last quarter, to $1.1bn, with credit impairment costs falling. Statutory profits before tax jumped 129% to $996m, ahead of forecasts.

The bank flagged that supply chain disruption is also hitting the recovery, and stuck with its prediction of flat earnings growth in 2021.

And while it is encouraged by “robust levels of export growth’ across many of its markets in Asia, it anticipates that the recovery will remain uneven.

While credit risk remains elevated, we have seen improvements in a number of metrics with high-risk assets lower for the fifth successive quarter, and the overall portfolio remains stable and resilient.

The Group is well-positioned to support our clients as economies recover but continues to remain vigilant to the continued impact of COVID-19 including vaccination progress and the likelihood of uneven economic recovery across markets and industries.

Here’s Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor:

Gambling group Flutter has fallen towards the bottom of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, after punters enjoyed a run of good sporting results against the bookies.

Flutter reported today that some ‘unfavourable sports results in the first 24 days of October’ had knocked £60m off its earnings.

Gamblers tend to get the upper hand over the bookies when favourites do well, and last month saw some profitable betting.

The company, which owns Paddy Power and Betfair, says this includes some international football results, Champions League games and boxing bouts - such as Tyson Fury’s win of Deontay Wilder - along with Australian horse racing and American football games.

As chief executive Peter Jackson told reporters:

“It’s what happens, occasionally you have a run of bad luck and it’s not unhelpful for our punters that they get to see a winning streak.”

Flutter has also temporarily closed its Dutch operations on 1 October, which is likely to cost £10m this year, and approximately £40m in 2022.

Flutter also grew its average monthly customers by 13% year-on-year in Q3, with revenues up 9%.

However, online revenues in the UK and Ireland fell 5% in Q3, while revenues at its retail sites were down 6% year-on-year.

Russ Mould, investment director of AJ Bell says:

On a group basis if you dig deeper into Flutter’s numbers, it is clear from the figures that life is not a breeze. UK revenue has dipped, partially because last year’s comparative period saw a lot of big games condensed into the quarter, but also that punters now have more options with how to spend their money in a post-lockdown world.

“Regulatory and political pressure remains intense on the gambling sector and in a world where ESG (environmental, social and governance) factors are now on the boardroom agenda, gambling companies need to do even more to stop vulnerable people getting into financial trouble through betting.

Shares in Flutter are down 6.4% at £131.65 this morning (updated).

In the City, the FTSE 100 has dropped 0.5% in early trading.

The index of blue-chip shares has fallen 36 points to 7252 points, having hit its highest level since February 2020 on Monday.

Mining companies are among the fallers, such as Anglo American (-3.6%), BHP Group (-3.5%) and Glencore (-2.9%), following a plunge in the iron ore price today.

Iron ore futures slumped again, as China intensified its crackdown on steel production, with more restrictions to curb pollution ahead of the Winter Olympics early next year.

Research group Mysteel report that daily crude steel output in the last 11 days of October dropped to the lowest since March 2020, as local governments forced some steel mills to trim their production, and softening steel prices and lacklustre demand hit output.

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BP has also announced it will spend another $1.25bn on share buybacks.

The move will funnel some of its profits back to shareholders, at a time when some investors are shunning fossil fuel producers due to the climate crisis.

BP says it has completed the $1.4bn share buyback announced at its second-quarter results, and plans to execute an additional $1.25bn share repurchase over the next three months.

Buybacks boost a company’s earnings-per-share, so are a boost for investors.

But critics point out that companies could use this capital to invest in new projects -- such as the green energy projects needed to hit net zero and reduce the reliance on oil and gas.

As Bloomberg puts it:

The last of the western world’s supermajors to report third-quarter earnings, BP followed very much in its peers’ footsteps by reporting a big increase in profit from a year earlier. After years of poor returns, the industry is funneling most of this extra cash into repurchasing shares and paying dividends.

That’s pleasing shareholders who are increasingly concerned about climate change, but lack of investment in new production has contributed to the current global energy crunch.

BP spent $2.9bn on capital expenditure in the last quarter, and is aiming for $13bn this year. In the last quarter it finished its Matapal offshore gas project off the cost of Trinidad and Tobago, and the Thunder Horse South Expansion Phase 2 in the Gulf of Mexico.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

BP has predicted that gas markets will remain tight this winter, after rising oil and gas prices lifted the energy giant’s earnings.

BP beat City forecasts this morning by posting underlying profits of over $3.3bn for the last quarter, due to higher oil and gas prices and refining margins and strong trading results.

And with the global economy facing an energy crunch, BP says:

Gas markets were very strong in the quarter and we expect they will remain tight during the period of peak winter demand.

BP also predicts that oil prices will be boosted by this dash for gas, with Brent crude already at a three-year high around $85 per barrel.

Oil prices have continued to increase, and inventories have reduced back towards pre-pandemic levels. We expect oil prices to be supported by continued inventory draw-down, with the potential for additional demand from gas to oil switching.

OPEC+ decision making on production levels continues to be a key factor in oil prices and market rebalancing.

Rising energy prices lifted BP’s underlying replacement cost profit (its preferred measure of earnings) to $3.322bn for the third quarter of the year.

That’s 18% up from $2.798bn in Q2, and ahead of forecasts of around $3.06bn.

That’s sharply higher than the $86m profit a year earlier, in July-September 2020 when BP was recovering from the economic shock of the pandemic.

BP’s chief executive, Bernard Looney, says:

This has been another good quarter for bp - our businesses are generating strong underlying earnings and cash flow while maintaining their focus on safe and reliable operations.

Rising commodity prices certainly helped, but I am most pleased that quarter by quarter, we’re doing what we said we would - delivering significant cash to strengthen our finances, grow distributions to shareholders and invest in our strategic transformation. This is what we mean by performing while transforming.

On a statutory basis, BP actually made a loss of $2.5bn -- which it says is due to the way that hedges used to risk-manage its liquified natural gas contracts are accounted for.....

Wholesale gas prices soared this year during the energy price crunch. The cost of next-day UK delivery surged from 60p per therm in January to over 300p/therm last month, although it’s now dropped back to 155p/therm last night.

Those wholesale prices have forced a swathe of suppliers under -- yesterday Bluegreen Energy Services, which had just 5,900 customers, ceased trading.

Bluegreen Energy said the crisis had left it in an “unsustainable situation” and it had been “regrettably... forced to make the difficult decision to cease trading”.

Also coming up today

European stock markets are set for a subdued start, after hitting record highs yesterday.

Wall Street also reached fresh records last night, ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting which begins today, where officials could decide to taper its bond-buying stimulus programme:

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, explains:

Nothing gets in the way of the equity bulls: not chip shortages, nor labour shortages, or the energy crisis, or the pandemic, not even the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is just about to announce scaling back its massive bond purchases program in order to contain the rising inflation.

The bulls continue pushing the equity rally to fresh records. The S&P500 and Nasdaq both renewed record on Monday’s session, whereas the major headline on Bloomberg this morning was that ‘the supply chain crisis risks taking the global economy down with it’.

Still, investors prefer seeing the glass half full: we have a strong earnings season, 80% of the S&P500 companies that announced earnings so far, beat expectations.

The agenda

• 9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing PM survey for October
• 2pm GMT: IBD/TIPP index of US economic optimism