Treasurer hands down federal budget derailed by coronavirus pandemic – as it happened

We are going to wrap up the live coverage for this evening and give you a chance to have a look at the news stories.

There is a lot more information in there – a lot more of the detail, and of course champagne analysis from Grogs and Murph.

And there will be a lot more to come tomorrow. We need to take a longer look at the budget papers ourselves – like Indigenous health spending, English language tests for partner visas and where the cashless debit card trials are going next. There are quite a few ideological measures hidden by that big headline debt figure.

And let’s remember, the main take-away – no saving measures, which is understandable – but tax cuts and business write-offs are the big ticket headlines.

We have an old prescription to new and unforeseen economic ailments. And we’re relying on a best case scenario to predict it won’t get any worse.

This budget will pass quickly – it is all going as one omnibus bill – so everything gets wrapped up and done in one bill in the morning. Labor is “inclined” to pass it, even at this early stage and the Senate won’t give the government any trouble over it.

And then?

We wait.

Once again, thank you for joining us. I’ll be back tomorrow morning with more news, live. In the meantime – take care of you.

And from the Tax Institute:

The Tax Institute says that real reform is still needed.

“A good budget for the times, but there is more long-term work to be done,” said Peter Godber, CTA, The Tax Institute President.

The Tax Institute Director of Tax Policy and Technical, Andrew Mills, CTA (Life), commented on various measures, including personal income tax cuts, the extension of the instant asset write-off and the increase in small business turnover threshold.

You know the English language test introduced for new Australians?

It will now also apply to partner visas.

The Australian Academy of Science is not unhappy with the budget:

One of the most important takeaways?

That trillion dollar debt figure is if things go RIGHT.

As in – we get a vaccine, it gets picked up quickly, people get rehired, people begin to spend, trade picks up, the world starts to rebound, and we all start to feel more sunny.

A lot of things need to fall into place for all of that to work.

And if one doesn’t, then, well, things get dragged out even longer.

While there is another budget in May, the longer people are out of work, the less money is in the economy, the deeper the scars and the longer it takes to get out of it all.

Just brace yourself, is all I’m saying.

Who are the budget winners? Grogs has you covered

It doesn’t really address the issue though, does it minister?

Universities Australia has gotten around to sending their response:

Universities Australia chair Deborah Terry said:

The government has this evening added $1 billion to the nation’s research effort, allowing universities to secure an important and continuing role in national recovery.

The sector’s voice had been clearly heard.

You can’t have an economic recovery without investing in research and development.

Yeah, women haven’t done too great in all of this either.

Mathias Cormann is now on Sky, where Paul Murray is pretending to understand the budget*, where he says there is nothing wrong with people saving their money “for a rainy day”.

I don’t know how much harder it needs to rain. We’re in the middle of a cyclone here – this is the rainy day.

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The Parenthood is also disappointed:

“The federal budget totally ignores the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on women and risks relegating a generation of Australian women into life-long economic insecurity and even poverty as a result,” said executive director Georgie Dent.

“This is despite the fact women have been on the frontline of this pandemic, helping Australia navigate this crisis, as nurses, teachers, carers, cleaners and educators, and despite the fact that women have lost hours and full-time employment in far greater numbers than men, all while their unpaid work at home has soared.

“It is insulting and made worse by the fact the treasurer flagged $240 million, that is reportedly to be spent over five years, as a serious investment for women.

“The federal government cannot back up its claims of being focused on jobs while failing to design any female focused recovery efforts in this historic budget.

“If the government would genuinely like to support “job creation and entrepreneurialism” among women, as the treasurer claimed, why was childcare given just a single mention in his speech?

Tim Costello from Micah Australia also has some thoughts – Australia is picking where its aid goes from the same pot:

This increased one-off support of $305 million for the Covid-19 response and recovery in the Pacific and Timor-Leste is good news for our closest neighbours whose economies and livelihoods are reeling from the pandemic.

But it comes at the cost of cuts to other programs, including aid to South and West Asia, Afghanistan, Africa and the World Food Programme.

This aid budget does not go far enough to address the greatest threat to global progress on poverty we have seen in our lifetime.

The World Bank predictions released this week suggest that by 2021 an additional 110 to 150 million people will have fallen into extreme poverty.

We’ve seen promising signs of Australia’s generosity and leadership in the region; such as the $123 million committed for the COVAX initiative, but we are still to see an overall repair of the Aid budget.

The group that lobbies for community housing has also responded. Not surprisingly, they are disappointed. Because they get nothing:

The Community Housing Industry Association (CHIA) is disappointed that the 2020 Federal budget contains no plans to kick start the recovery through investing in social housing.

“The Master Builders construction forecasts have pointed to a 27% fall in home building, with massive implications for employment in an industry that supplies over 9% of Australia’s jobs” said Wendy Hayhurst, CHIA’s CEO.

“While the budget has some measures to support home builders, these are unlikely to be anywhere near sufficient to compensate for the drop in demand caused by zero migration and high rates of financial stress.

“While CHIA welcomes the $1 billion extension of the Commonwealth Government guarantee supporting the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation’s (NHFIC) lending but this on its own is insufficient to drive substantial new social and affordable housing construction.

“Our Pre Budget Submission proposal, the Social Housing Acceleration and Renovation Program (SHARP), would have delivered 30,000 high quality energy efficient homes for people in need, and secured great jobs for thousands in regions and towns across Australia.”

She went on to say “Investing in social housing is the right thing to do now. There is almost infinite demand for the product; a build program can ramp up quickly – our members have already identified almost 12,000 units they could start in six months ; activity can be targeted where the economic impacts are most badly needed and it is creating additional activity - not simply bringing forward homes that will get built anyway”

The IPA wants the stage three tax cuts brought forward.

Those would be the ones that benefit everyone earning over $120,000.

Again, what’s a six figure salary like? Asking for a friend.

As Paul Karp reported:

Aged and Community Services Australia has also responded:

“Measures that allow us to hire young people are good but we need more permanent measures given aged care has to triple our workforce by 2050,” ACSA CEO Patricia Sparrow said.

“The home care injection is unprecedented and welcome. This is good bang for the buck, however, there will still be thousands of people waiting for the right level of support or any support at all.

“This budget also includes some other small and useful initiatives but the system needs a reboot not tinkering.

“The kind of financing and budget reform that is necessary to set up Australia for our ageing population means a total rethink - not just a series of announcements that prop up the current system.

“The Royal Commission will report in February next year and we will need to get serious reform and investment as a result if we are to make sure that older Australians can age with dignity in a rights-based service system,” Ms Sparrow said.

That’s the last of the conga line of reactions, Christopher Knaus tells me - at least physically.

Usually the stakeholders line up at what we call the boxes - where the mail is delivered in the press gallery, and one after the other, steps up to deliver the immediate reaction to the cameras.

This time round, they were at Old Parliament House and it was a bit of a mission to pass the Covid-safe requirements, so many of the usual faces have opted to just send out releases, or put videos on their social media feeds.

Not that there is a lot to say here. Tax cuts and business write-offs is basically all it is.

Marc Purcell, chief executive of aid peak body the Australian Council for International Development, said the budget was mixed for Australia’s foreign aid spending.

The government announced a one-off $304m increase in Pacific spending, to help the region deal with Covid-19.

That was welcomed by Purcell.

The news was not so rosy for other aspects of Australia’s aid program. Little was done to improve aid spending in Asia, and spending actually declined in some areas of West Asia.

The government had also failed to increase spending to the World Health Organisation, despite the global pandemic.

“You’d expect in the biggest pandemic in a century, if we had an issue we wanted [the WHO] to address, we’d help them address it,” Purcell said.

Cuts were also seen to the International Committee of the Red Cross, something Purcell described as “puzzling”.

Purcell said, overall, the foreign aid program continued to decline. That reduced Australia’s influence in the region, he said.

“A more unstable region is a more unstable environment for Australia to try to do business in.”

Over on Sky, Kieran Gilbert asked Josh Frydenberg about the prediction that if a vaccine turns up six months early, it would add 1.5% to GDP gross.

So, Gilbert asks, - is the opposite true? If the vaccine is six months late, does it take 1.5% OFF GDP? ($34bn). If it is a year late, is that 3% off GDP? ($68bn)

Frydenberg does not want to say - the budget is happy to say what will happen if the vaccine happens on its predicted schedule, but not what will happen if it’s all a little late.

Again, it will depend on the circumstances at the time we’ll continue to update our forecasts at Myefo and the May budget.

... But right now, we have predicated, some of the assumptions in this budget on a vaccine being available across the country, by the end of next year

Leigh Sales asked Jim Chalmers what his early thoughts on the jobmaker subsidy was:

Who can keep up with slogans, but if you are talking about incentives for hiring we do have a concern and the concern is this: There are 928 thousand Australians on unemployment benefits who are not eligible for the hiring subsidies. Too many people have been left out and left behind. Workers over 35, for example.

And when you think about the future for those workers there is no budgeted increase in the jobseeker amounts so it is back to $40 a day unless the government tells us otherwise.

Jobkeeper has been cut at the same time. So I think for those 928,000 workers they have been left out and left behind and left in the lurch and that’s concerning.

Q: Josh Frydenberg just said the measurers were targeted and temporary and have to come off at some point?

Chalmers:

We made the same point, at some stage jobkeeper won’t be necessary in the economy but it is too soon to cut jobkeeper. You think about the income tax cuts, an average worker will get $50 a fortnight at the same time millions of workers are losing $300 a fortnight with the cuts to jobkeeper, so we need to factor that in. Yes, at some point, jobkeeper will be tapered away, but you think about the weakness of the economy in Victoria, which you just profiled. I spent the first half of last week in Far North Queensland, which is doing it tough because of the closure of the international border, and it is too soon to bring it out of the economy especially with the government responding with a comprehensive plan.

It is being cut and it matters for the individual, and the [employer] that they work for, that $300 a fortnight is nothing to be sneezed at, hundreds of millions of dollars pulled from the economy before it is ready and it is too soon.

Some more reactions

Jim Chalmers is also asked if Labor is going to deliver some payback to the government, given the Coalition’s response to the GFC spending:

Two points about that. First of all, the government has racked up a trillion dollars of debt and still we have got unemployment too high for too long. A trillion dollars in debt and no vision for the future.

Still too many people left behind and not undoing the damage of the last seven years of mismanagement.

So the point that we will be making is you would think we could get more bang for buck for the trillion dollars of debt they have racked up. The history wars will continue to be fought, of course.

The point I would make about that is we have been consistent throughout. There is a role for government when the economy is weak as it was a decade ago and as it is now for the government to step in and support jobs and people in their communities. We have been consistent on that. The government hasn’t.

Jennifer Westacott, chief executive of the Business Council of Australia, has praised the government for its budget, saying it achieves it main goal: job creation.

Westacott said the budget is precisely what was needed during the current crisis, saying it would “inspire” and “build hope”.She praised the budget’s wage subsidy scheme, infrastructure spending, cutting of red tape, and the direct injection of money into people’s pockets.

Westacott said the budget “puts the private sector back on top” and allowed it to drive job creation and economic growth.

“It had a very clear task. It is a crisis we are in,” Westacott said.

“It’s job was to get people back to work...the budget does that.”

Marise Payne has also announced $55.5m for security upgrades across Australia’s diplomatic network.

The foreign minister’s press release said this would include “sustainment of the government’s armoured vehicle fleet, security upgrades to buildings including embassies and residences, and increasing the number of security personnel”.

Not mentioned in the release - but also interesting - is that the government has earmarked $25m in initial funding over two years in connection with the proposed foreign veto laws.

This is the proposed scheme allowing the foreign minister to review and potentially cancel or prevent certain international agreements including state, territory or local governments or universities if they are deemed to go against Australia’s foreign policy.

Universities have used an ongoing parliamentary inquiry to argue the scheme will impose significant administrative burdenfor both the higher education sector and Dfat.

The budget papers say the $25m in funding will “support the review of existing and prospective arrangements between state and territory governments and foreign governments to ensure consistency with Australia’s foreign policy”.

John Falzon, of the Per Capita think tank, said the budget, through its reliance on tax breaks and deregulation, was typical of a neoliberal “trickle down” approach to economics.

“Tonight’s budget is a triumph of ideology over common sense, over the common good,” he said.

Falzon was particularly critical of the lack of support for social housing and the absence of an investment in First Nations communities. He described the budget as heartless and one that will boost inequality.

The government says it will provide $305m over two years to help Pacific Island countries and Timor-Leste to recover from the “severe” impacts of Covid-19.

According to the budget papers, this funding will assist governments across the region to provide essential services, including public health services, while also improving food security and working to “re-establish and sustain air connectivity”.

There’s also $23m earmarked for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade “to support development of national immunisation policies in the Pacific, Timor-Leste and several Southeast Asian countries to ensure the effective delivery of Covid-19 vaccines when these become available”.

The foreign affairs minister, Marise Payne, said Australia was also providing $80m to support the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation COVAX Facility Advance Market Commitment to improve vaccine access for the region.

In a statement, Payne said Covid-19 was having “a profound impact on our region”.

“The growth, openness and stability of the Indo-Pacific, which has underpinned Australia’s prosperity and security for decades, is challenged by these impacts.”

In the defence portfolio, the budget also shows the government is set to spend $124m over 10 years on security infrastructure in the south-west Pacific. This will include construction of a border and patrol boat outpost in Solomon Islands’ western provinces.

Chris Richardson, of Deloitte Access economics, stuck an upbeat tone after the budget. He said the nation faced a “massive hangover” from the Covid-19 crisis. But he noted reasons for optimism.

Debt was up, but the interest payments the budget forecasts over the forward estimates remained stable, due to low interest rates. He also noted the positive economic growth the budget forecasts from late 2021 onwards.

That growth is predicated on a range of assumptions - that case numbers will be contained, a vaccine found, internal borders reopened, and international students return.

Richardson said those assumptions were reasonable.

The interview ends and Josh Frydenberg heads down the hallway to the Sky studio.

At least he’s getting his steps up, after that vanilla slice.

Leigh Sales: The Coalition’s principles for years and years is a surplus is a sign of economic competence and this, your response over the crisis, which I am not arguing is incorrect, proves the validity of what Labor did during an economic crisis?

Josh Frydenberg:

The reality, is unless you are disciplined fiscal managers and you get the budget into a position of strength, you can’t respond on a rainy day. And the fact is we did get the budget into a much better position than what we inherited, and that gave us the ability to respond as we have today. And our measures have already saved some 700,000 jobs and tonight’s budget will see the creation of nearly a million new jobs over the future years.

Sales: Treasurer, last year in this same interview you were prematurely claiming credit for the budget being back in the black. Will you ever deliver a surplus as treasurer?

Frydenberg:

I’m not putting a date on that. The reality is we printed a series of deficits tonight and at a higher debt burden but this has been the heavy price to save lives and livelihoods, we had no other alternative but to spend as we have and it has helped make Australia a stronger nation and helped see Australia come through this crisis nearly better than any other developed economy across the world.

Oh if they have set themselves some principles then everything is going to be JUST fine.

Josh Frydenberg is now trying to explain why it wasn’t responsible for Labor to spend money to keep Australia out of recession during the GFC, but it is the right move now.

It is something.

Leigh Sales: Net debt this year is going to be $703 billion, by June 2024 it will be a trillion. In the 2008-9 global financial crisis and the years after the Coalition then attacked the then Labor government on the grounds that debt and deficit were signs of incompetence and mismanagement. Why shouldn’t I apply the same argument to you?

Josh Frydenberg:

We haven’t baked in spending ...

Sales:

No, I’m asking about the use of fiscal policy.

Frydenberg:

I am responding to that directly. We have spent 90% of the money in the budget over two years. The second point is the GFC saw the global economy tract by 0.1%. This year the OECD is expecting the global economy to contract by 4%. You can’t compare it.

Sales:

Yes, but Labor’s largest deficit was $54 billion and yours is four times that?

Frydenberg:

Because of the finances we delivered the first balanced budget and we saw it go down from 5.7%.

Sales:

But treasurer, everyone will remember for years and years the Coalition went on about Labor’s debt and deficit, building up debt was a sign of economic incompetence and mismanagement. Everybody remembers that and now you are doing that as a form of responsible economic management?

Frydenberg:

Again, they baked in spending and spent it on pink batts.

Sales:

But you’re not addressing the principle I’m talking about. Isn’t the reason I shouldn’t make the argument it was always dishonest and cynical as you are proving?

Frydenberg:

I think you are being cynical today. To be honest we are dealing with a once in a century pandemic. Australia’s GDP has fallen by 7% in the June quarter, a record amount. If you turn to New Zealand, it’s fallen by more than 12%. If you turn to France, it is around 14%. If you turn to the United Kingdom it is by more than 20%. Our net debt to GDP, even after all the spending in this budget will peak at 44%. Less than half of other comparable ...

Sales:

Treasurer, I am just trying to get the facts for the Australian public and look back historically. Can we treat the Australian public like adults, can we agree using debt deficit to cushion the fiscal ...

Frydenberg:

We have always been responsible.

Sales:

It was responsible when Labor did it and responsible when you are doing it today, it is a legitimate tool?

Frydenberg:

It sits side by side with monetary policy. When it comes to monetary policy during the GFC, it was able to fall by 425 basis points, $125 billion stimulus. During this crisis, because the cash rate was already low it could only fall by 50 basis points and it fell to fiscal policy to respond. We have and have done so responsibly and have set ourselves a bunch of principles that we have been consistent with, namely that our spending has been targeted, proportionate, temporary and using existing systems.

Why is the jobmaker labour payment capped at employees no older than 35?

Josh Frydenberg:

We settled on 35, because young people have been particularly impacted by this crisis, and also because of the history of previous recessions in Australia; in the 1980s and 90s, it took a while for jobs to come back.

So why take jobkeeper off so early?

Frydenberg:

There is a record amount of spending but also important supply side structural reforms. The most significant changes to insolvency in 30 years, the changes to the provision of credit will also help spur activity.

What we’re doing in our manufacturing strategy, of course, energy is a vital input into job creation for so many industries and of course we’re pursuing more flexible work places.

All those are helping to create a stronger economy. Jobkeeper was temporarily targeted and, at $101 billion, the most significant and successful program any Australian government has undertaken in an environment such as this.

Q:

Isn’t it incredible that unemployment would be under 6% in the forward estimates of four years in the back of the worst recession in 100 years?

Frydenberg:

This is best forecast in the estimates available.

But this is for the shock and demand side. Because of health restrictions you haven’t been able to go to the local restaurant or cafe or a holiday destination. People’s savings ratio has gone up and it will come down over time and once we have the virus under control, and we are doing very well outside of Victoria, and in Victoria the numbers have come down recently, once you suppress the virus you can ease restrictions and it creates jobs.

Leigh Sales:

On the point about economic support, given the extremely uncertain environment you acknowledge, why have you set dates to abolish jobkeeper and jobseeker, rather than waiting to see what the relevant economic data shows over the next few months. Wouldn’t flexibility be more prudent?

Josh Frydenberg:

Well, the first thing to say is that jobkeeper and jobseeker are substantial programs but not the only [programs] we have put in place, we have a $30 billion cash flow boost supporting the cash flow of small businesses and tonight we have announced a whole series of other incentives.

Sales: But can you address that point about flexibility?

Frydenberg:

In context of jobseeker, we have said we will make a decision about that level of payment closer to the end of the year when we have a better sense of the labour market dynamics. With jobkeeper, we have extended it for six months. But programs like the jobmaker hiring credit will be very important in the transition away from that.

Sales:

But you are relying that people feel confident to hire somebody. Businesses might go, I don’t want an extra person on staff?

Frydenberg:

These will be difficult decisions for businesses but we are making it easy for them to take that decision to hire someone. We are also investing record amounts in apprenticeships, $4 billion. but it is to keep current apprentices and to attract 100,000 new apprentices.

We have 150,000 short courses in specified areas where there are job needs and having created a $1 billion Job Trainer Fund with 340,000 training positions, so there is a whole suite of measures designed to boost the employability of Australian workers and to encourage businesses to take them on.

Sales: Wouldn’t it be a case for Victoria, specifically, to have jobkeeper extended beyond the March date?

Frydenberg:

Well, again, Victorians are benefitting most from the government’s decision to extend jobkeeper. Around 60% of those on jobkeeper in the December to March quarters are expected to be in Victoria. We have put out around $28 billion to Victoria through a range of measures and Victoria made their own announcements. If you are receiving JobKeeper you have retained a job, which is important to understand. What we have sought to do is create a series of incentives and make a series of investments that are designed to create more jobs. 40,000 jobs with our infrastructure rollout. 50,000 jobs with our income tax cuts. Another 50,000 jobs with the loss carry back measure and immediate expenses. Treasury believes nearly 1 million new jobs will be created by the measures in this budget and what is happening across the economy over the next few years.

Besides, Josh Frydenberg says, the budget could be even more optimistic.

It could have served up a cake filled with rainbows and smiles that everyone would eat and be happy.

Frydenberg:

The Treasury papers outline a couple of other scenarios that may be better cases. So we could get access to the vaccine earlier than is laid out in the budget papers, and will lead to a $34 billion boost to the economy. So there is a great deal of uncertainty. These are projections. These are forecasts, these are made during a once in a century global pandemic. But there is a clear path back to jobs and employment for hundreds of thousands of Australians.

You see that as the unemployment numbers come down over time and you see that as a result of our economic support provided in this package of measures.

Independent MP Zali Steggall doesn’t think the budget goes far enough:

“It is time to be brave and bold and secure our economic future to aim for gold,” she said.

“Instead, Australians are getting record debt and spending on ‘business as usual’ measures that will not put Australia on the podium.”

“The government is spinning this budget as a ‘big spend’ when it is really a drop in revenue and no major investment,” she said.

“The main beneficiaries will be large construction companies capable of tendering on large infrastructure projects.”

“The biggest single measure in this budget, $26.7 billion, focused on encouraging businesses to invest freely through full asset write offs, is another positive step to get money flowing. Similarly bringing forward the personal income tax cuts will cut $17.8 billion from Government revenues, giving it back to individuals.”

“These two measures represent nearly a quarter of this budget and they are based on big assumptions that businesses and individuals will spend.”

“While I support the tax cuts to both businesses and individuals, as the Governor of the Reserve Bank has said, we need deeper reform. Yet this budget continues to be shackled by the Government’s unwillingness to step up to the challenges that we face.”

You can put the climate in the list of “losers” in the budget winner and losers tally though.

There is not a lot in there. There is, however, quite a bit on gas expansion.

Adam Bandt has some thoughts on the budget

Ian Henschke, of National Seniors Australia, has slammed the government’s budget. The budget funded only an extra 23,000 home care place over four years. Henschke said that was nowhere near what was needed to address what was a massive problem.

He said 30,000 people died waiting for a home care package last year. The aged care royal commission, he said, was set up by the Coalition to “restore faith in a broken system”.

Scott Morrison had done nothing in this budget to restore that faith, he said.”This will only do a little bit to help what is a massive problem,” he said.

He said he could only hope the findings of the royal commission in February would be the trigger for a massive investment in aged care.

We’ll be holding Scott Morrison to his promise to fix the aged care system. This particular budget does not appear to have done this.”

For those looking for attorney-general spending (the courts)

· $35.7m in additional resources and judges for the Federal Circuit Court (FCC) to ensure timely case hearings for migration and family law cases, funded by increases to FCC migration application fees.

· $35.3m in increased temporary resourcing for the Fair Entitlements Guarantee program.

· $7.7m for upgrades to the Launceston and Rockhampton FCC registries.

· $5.1m for the Fair Work Commission to meet demand arising from COVID‑19 and ensure workplace disputes are resolved as quickly as possible.

· $4.8m for the Family Violence and Cross-examination of Parties Scheme.

· $2.5m to allow the federal family law courts to continue to hear urgent matters through a specialist COVID-19 List.

· $2.5m to transition the Family Court of Western Australia to a new case management system.

· $1.8m to implement criminally enforceable federal family violence orders (FFVOs).

Josh Frydenberg has finished his speech.

He is on his way to the ABC studio for the traditional 7.30 interview.

We’ll bring you the best of that, live

And then there are also things like this:

Acoss CEO Cassandra Goldie said

While the Budget provides some glimmer for hope on jobs for young people, it comes as a crushing let-down for many others without paid work.

The Federal Budget has also missed key opportunities for job creation initiatives that would have delivered public good, particularly in female-dominated sectors, instead focussing on projects that will take longer to get off the ground.

Dr Goldie said the Federal Budget had failed to deliver a permanent, adequate JobSeeker rate.

It leaves more than two million people receiving higher income support uncertain about their future beyond the end of the year, when rates will go to their pre-covid levels, which for JobSeeker is $40 a day. People on temporary visas also receive no income support in this budget.

The extra funding for aged care is welcome, including 23,000 aged care packages, but this falls far short of what is required to meet demand. There is some extra funding for community services, including mental health services, but again, it is insufficient to meet what is required.”

Josh Frydenberg has four bottles of water in front of him.

Last time Frydenberg delivered a speech on the economy - the budget update - announcing Australia was in recession - he almost choked to death on a frog in his throat.

And then he had to leave the chamber to go take a Covid test (it was negative)

Obviously, he is taking no chances this time round, hence the equivalent of a horse trough in front of him.

Why is this important?

Because it tells you when your interest rates are likely to go back up again.

And according to this, it is going to be quite some time.

This is only because every country we used to send our garbage too, stopped taking it - and started sending it back

Or you could believe that we just suddenly love taking responsibility for our trash.

Tony Maher, of the National Farmers Federation, has welcomed the budget as a “good budget for farmers, a good budget for rural and remote communities”.Maher said the $7bn funding for infrastructure was welcome, as was a pledge to streamline export certification.

Maher was particularly pleased with $6,000 incentives to bring workers to the regions, which he said would help “open the door” to regional Australia and jobs in agriculture.

The gas and oil lobby group loves it too!

APPEA Chief Executive Andrew McConville said the 2020 Budget acknowledged investment is a central pillar to recovery and the oil and gas industry has a clear plan to support the government in driving job creation, skills development and promoting domestic spending and investment across all industries.

“The Budget, together with the government’s previous announcements on energy and technology, recognises the pivotal role of Australia’s oil and gas industry in providing energy security for homes and businesses and making a sustained contribution to government revenues,” Mr McConville said.

Let’s get into some of the reactions:

In shocking news you may need to sit down for, the Business Council of Australia really loves this budget. It’s amazing what letting businesses write off practically every asset they buy and backdate their losses will do.

This is the right budget at the right time,’’ Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott said.

“This budget is about getting Australians back to work and getting businesses back on track. Decision by decision, step by step we are investing in the future and rebuilding the economy.

“The budget goes a long way to restoring hope and giving us confidence that we can come back stronger and better than before as we combat an unprecedented global downturn.

“By shifting from emergency support to targeted spending, the budget will help employers get back to business and get on with urgently creating the new jobs needed for the recovery.

Josh Frydenberg is still delivering the speech.

He is using his very ‘deliberate’ voice. Every word weighs about as much as I do, and as my mother always said, I am a substantial girl.

But essentially, it all boils down to the Afterpay budget - we are buying debt now, to pay for it later.

As Murph reports:

The $98bn of spending and business concessions outlined in Tuesday night’s budget will see the deficit reach $213.7bn this year. Net debt is also forecast to peak at a record $966bn or 44% of GDP by June 2024.

Federal budget 2020: Coalition banks on $98bn injection to jolt Australia’s economy back to life

And that is about it.

First home owners

The first home loan deposit scheme (where the government essentially acts as guarantor) will be extended with an additional 10,000 places allotted in 2020-2021.

Aged care

After horrendous deficiencies were highlighted in aged care during the pandemic, the government is spending $1.6bn on an additional 23,000 home care places - but given there are more than 100,000 Australians on the waiting list, the 23,000 additional packages don’t seem enough. It can never be enough.

On other parts of the sector, Lisa Cox reports there will be more spent on additional staff and training:

Greg Hunt said on Tuesday there would be an extra $81m for additional staff and training, on top of $101.2m the government announced for this purpose in March.

The health budget comprises $467bn in overall spending over four years, $16.5bn of that makes up the emergency response to the pandemic.

The government says it will increase funding for hospitals by $33.6bn over the new five-year national health reform agreement and provide $5.7bn for mental health, including already announced funding to double the number if Medicare-funded psycholology sessions from 10 to 20.

Hunt said the budget would fund the government’s ongoing response to the pandemic and “helps chart the road out”, with aged care “a particular focus”.

Total funding in aged care will be $23.9bn over the forward estimates - an increase of $2.2bn Hunt said - including the $1.6bn for home care packages.

Pensioners.

Pensioners missed out on an indexation increase because, well, the nation is in recession. Scott Morrison tried to announce some good news in question time, but he was shut down - mostly because the answer had nothing to do with the question.

But now we have learned what that news was - it is a $250 cash payment for pensioners by the end of the year and then another $250 payment in March. These payments will also be available to other eligible social service beneficiaries.

The next budget, barring another disaster, or, even worse, an early election, will be back in the first week of May, so there won’t be too long to wait beyond that to learn what else is coming.

Universities

Universities get a research boost, with $1bn injected into the research sector. The government is also going to fund an additional 50,000 online short courses to upskill workers and help the unemployed- in teaching, health, science, information technology and agriculture, spending $251.8m between now and June 2022.

But wait, there’s more. As Elias Visontay reports:

In addition to the $1bn for research projects, the government will also spend $5.8m between now and June on a “scoping study of potential options to accelerate the translation and commercialisation” of non-medical research, with a priority on “new partnerships between universities and industry and opportunities for investments”.

This is part of an effort to “reform” the way the cost-intensive university research has traditionally been funded in Australia, away from a reliance on the higher fees paid by international students and towards commercial partnerships.

That should absolutely make up for all the cuts. Totally and absolutely.

Jobmaker hiring credit

Remember Jobmaker? It was an umbrella term to cover a bunch of existing programs designed to create jobs. Or, as Murph would say, a slogan in want of substance.

Well, now it has it’s very own labour hire credit!

Businesses will be paid up to $200 a week to hire young Australians (a measure the budget costs at $4bn) in a bid to reverse an increase in youth unemployment. Turns out all those babies Peter Costello paid Australians to have are entering a pretty depressed labour market - and, along with my cohort of millenials (fist bump) are bearing the brunt of the downturn.

Afterall, it will be the younger generations who pay this stuff off, and the younger generations who will see less wage growth as they do it.

Under the program, businesses who hire a younger worker who was previously on jobseeker (formerly Newstart) will receive up to $200 a week for their wage.

The hiring credit will be paid at the rate of $200 per week for hiring people aged 16 to 29, or at $100 per week for 30- to 35-year-olds. Employees can receive this hiring credit for 12 months. The scheme begins on Wednesday, the day after the budget.

There needs to be at least 20 hours of work a week for the new hire for the business to be eligible. Oh, and the banks don’t get it.

Treasury estimates that this will support around 450,000 jobs for young people.

That’s on top of the previously announced government subsidy to pay half the wages of 100,000 new apprenticeships and traineeships.

But it also raises questions about what will happen to jobkeeper and the covid supplement for jobseeker. It is not confirmed by the budget papers, but it looks like it will just be replaced (jobkeeper has been extended to March, but there is nothing so far, beyond that)

Instant asset write off

This is an old program which has been supercharged.

Businesses will now be able to write off the full value of ANY assets they buy and use losses up until June 22 to cut down on more than $30bn in tax.

That is going to cost the government $26.7bn.

But Josh Frydenberg thinks the cost is worth it, claiming it will create 50,000 jobs over the forwards.

As Paul Karp explains:

Businesses with a turnover of less than $5bn - all but the top 1% - will be able to deduct the full cost of capital assets purchased after budget night and first used or installed by 30 June 2022.

Small and medium businesses will also be able to apply “full expensing” to second-hand assets; businesses earning $50m to $500m will be able to do so for assets of less than $150,000.

Under new provisions the government will allow companies to carry back losses from the 2019-20, 2020-21 or 2021-22 income years to offset previously taxed profits in 2018-19 or later years. This can generate a refundable tax offset that can be claimed this financial year or next.

Tax Cuts.

OK, this is not simple. Paul Karp has broken it down for me. Basically, the stage two income tax cuts, which were legislated to begin in 2022 will be brought forward to this financial year (as reported) and backdated to July, so households get an instant spend boost.

If you are earning $120,000 or over, first of all - congratulations - what’s that like? Secondly, you’ll get the biggest benefit from those stage two tax cuts because your earnings between $90,000 and $120,000 is taxed at a lower rate - 32.5%, rather than 37% - and that is permanent.

Imagine you are earning $90,000. Last year, you would have got the low and middle income tax offset - $1080. You’ll get that again - but just for one more year. Then the LMITO is scrapped, because you’ll then benefit from tax brackets being raised.

The government has now increased the 19% tax threshold from $37,000 to $45,000 permanently - so you are taxed less on any earnings up to $45,000 - for someone on $90k that works out to exactly $1080.

Vaccine

The government has created this budget on the presumption a vaccine will be made by next year. Not only made, but effective, and freely and widely available. That’s pretty optimistic, according to health experts who think it would be pushing it to have a vaccine created by the end of next year, let alone distributed to enough people to see the world return to some semblance of normalcy.

But the government apparently sees that vaccine vial as half full.

A “population wide” vaccine is assumed to be “fully in place” by late 2021.

As an aside, we are spending $2.3bn in Covid-19 treatments and vaccines

Borders

Speaking of the borders, the budget doesn’t say when Australia will re-open them. But it does give a hint, by laying out what it expects in terms of international visitors. Treasury predicts international visitors are “expected to remain low through the latter part of 2021, after which a gradual recovery in international tourism is also assumed to occur”.

If Treasury thinks international visitors, which dropped by 98% between April and July when compared to the same time last year, will remain low, it expects the borders to remain closed into the second half of next year.

Also on borders, all state border restrictions currently in place are expected to be lifted by the end of this year - except for WA, which is expected to remain closed until April 2021.

Population growth

This shouldn’t surprise anybody, given the borders are closed and Australia has relied on migrants to aid its population growth for quite some time now, but our population is slated to grow by its lowest rate in more than 100 years - just 0.2% this financial year.

It’s mostly because the borders are closed - but it’s also because people are feeling uncertain - and who wants to bring a baby into an uncertain future?

Most of us apparently - the total fertility rate is expected to drop from 1.69 babies per woman to 1.58 in 2021-22. So we are barely making one, let alone one for mum, one for dad and one for the country.

Inflation

It’s weak, even, as Treasury says, by historical standards.

As Daniel Hurst reports:

After declining by 0.3% in 2019-20, the consumer price index is set to rise by 1.75% in 2020-21 and 1.5% the following year. CPI probably won’t return to the bottom of the RBA’s target band of 2% to 3% until the end of the forward estimates in the budget period.

Wage growth

You should be used to this by now - it’s weak. If history is anything to go by, it’ll be weaker than treasury is predicting though, and at 1.25% in this financial year and 1.5% in the next financial year, that’s not exactly great to start with.

Unemployment

Treasury expects unemployment to hit 8% before the end of the year.

It’s not a surprise, as Anne Ruston forewarned it would not feature, but there is nothing about the Jobseeker covid supplement extending beyond it’s slated December expiry in the budget (that doesn’t mean it won’t happen, just that if it does, the government will have to change a few things

GDP

Surprise! GDP is anticipated to bounce back - the budget has the economy in 2021-22 will ‘rebound’ at a rate of 4.75% - the fastest this century - and faster than during the mining boom - and that is after a fall this financial year of 1.5% - the worst since the 1983 recession.

Budget deficit

They said it would be high - here’s just how high - $213.7bn in the 2020/21 financial year, the highest underlying cash deficit since the second world war. That is about 11% as a share of the economy.

Deficits are forecast for the next decade.

You won’t be having another election campaign on deficit vs surplus for quite some time.

Debt

Net debt will increase from $491m in the last financial year to $703bn, or, as Daniel Hurst has pointed out to me, 36% of GDP. It then peaks at $966bn, which is 44% of GDP in June 2024 and hangs around 40% of the economy into at least the early 2030s. Despite the debt - interest payments are steady at $13bn a year, because interest rates are low.

Gross debt though hits just over $1.1tn, as in trillion, in 2023-24.

It’s cool though, according to treasury - Australia’s borrowing, at least compared to other advanced economies remains low and sustainable.

It’s almost like there never was a budget emergency.

The heroics.

Again, I’ll let Josh Frydenberg take this one.

The global economic environment remains uncertain with the impact of this crisis to be felt for many years to come.

In Australia, the economy is forecast to fall by 3.75 per cent this calendar year and unemployment to peak at 8 per cent in the December quarter.

But then - wait for it -

Next calendar year, the economy is forecast to grow by 4.25 per cent, and unemployment to fall to 6.5 per cent by the June Quarter 2022.

Our economic and fiscal strategy sets out the path to grow the economy, stabilise debt, and then reduce it over time.

It has two phases.

First, it focuses on boosting consumer and business confidence, growing the economy and creating jobs.

Once the recovery has taken hold and the unemployment rate is on a clear path back to pre-crisis levels, comfortably below 6 per cent, we will move to the second phase where

there is a deliberate shift from providing temporary and targeted support to stabilising gross and net debt as a share of the economy.

We will then rebuild our fiscal buffers, so that we can be prepared for the next economic shock.

More people in jobs means a stronger Budget position.

The mood.

Let’s go straight to the man of the hour, Josh Frydenberg for this one.

How does he open his speech?

In 2020, Australians have been tested like never before.

Flood, drought, fires, and a global pandemic.

So many Australians, through no fault of their own, are doing it tough.

Lives have been lost.

Businesses have closed.

Jobs have gone.

Our cherished way of life has been put on hold.

Our local heroes, the healthcare workers on the frontline, just as our volunteer firefighters did over summer, are showing us the way.

Their courage, commitment, and compassion reflects the very best of Australia.

Tonight, a grateful nation gives thanks.

These qualities are the invisible strength of Australia.

A resilient people, a proud nation and we will get through this together.

The Great Depression and two World Wars did not bring Australia to its knees, neither will Covid-19.

And how does he close it?

Mr Speaker, this year, Australia’s circumstances have changed dramatically.

But Australians have not.

We are hard-working, resilient, resourceful, and compassionate people.

Across this country, people are digging deep, banding together, and getting on with it.

The road to recovery will be hard - but there is hope.

The Morrison government’s message to Australians is that we have your back.

We have a plan to rebuild our economy and to create jobs.

Our JobMaker hiring credit will support nearly half a million young Australians in work.

Our record investment in skills and training will strengthen Australia’s workforce.

Our manufacturing plan will support the recovery and build our sovereign capability.

Tax incentives will unleash a wave of investment across the country.

And tax cuts will put more money into the pockets of 11 million hard working

Australians and their families.

We are building the infrastructure we need for the future.

We are guaranteeing healthcare and the essential services Australians rely on.

We will do this by growing the economy, not increasing taxes.

Together Australia will come back.

Together we will rebuild our economy and secure Australia’s future.

Just a reminder of what we’ll see in less than ten minutes time.

The budget papers will be released at 7.30pm and reporting and analysis from the Guardian’s team, who have been inside lockup, will be available almost immediately.

The treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, will then deliver his budget speech. Reaction will quickly start to flow from stakeholders who have been inside their own lockups, examining the budget documents.

Stay tuned. We’re not far off now.

Homelessness and housing groups are calling for a significant investment in social housing in tonight’s budget. The government’s housing efforts so far have largely focussed on its HomeBuilder program, which gives $25,000 to those building a home worth up to $750,000.

We’ll soon see if their approach shifts to a more direct investment in social housing.

The markets closed higher today, following a late rally just hours ahead of the release of the federal budget.

AAP reports that the S&P/ASX200 benchmark index closed higher by 20.5 points, or 0.35% , to 5962.1 on Tuesday.

The All Ordinaries index finished up by 29.1 points, or 0.47%, to 6164.2.

Energy rose 2.32% and materials gained 1.11%.

One hour to the budget’s release, folks. Don’t go anywhere.

This will be one of the most important budgets in modern Australian history.

Job creation will be central to the government’s approach.

We’ve just heard from the Black Dog Institute director, Helen Christensen, who says that, as well as the obvious economic benefit, job creation is critical in alleviating distress and trauma.

She told the ABC:

I think that we know that unemployment and underemployment are the biggest cause of societal distress at the moment.

Struggling to understand the bin fire that is American politics? Well, do I have the solution for you.

Guardian Australia has recently launched a daily US briefing for our Australian readers. It’s a snapshot of all things Trump, Biden and the US, produced by Josephine Tovey.

Today’s edition included Trump’s stage-managed effort to cast himself as the victor in his battle against Covid-19.

You can sign up here:

Just a little more on that news that many welfare recipients will receive $500 in cash. The measure is designed to stimulate demand and help kickstart the economy. A similar approach was taken by Kevin Rudd during the global financial crisis.

Rudd, though, handed out $900, almost double the amount. That’s not taking into account inflation, either.

But the measure at least gives something to lower income households, who are more likely than wealthier Australians to spend and actually stimulate the economy.

The news has already been welcomed by experts.

Rebecca Cassells, deputy director of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, said the measure would have a greater impact than measures targeted at higher income Australians, such as the proposed fast-tracking of tax cuts.

Cassells told Radio National:

We know that lower income households tend to spend the money that they have ... so this is a really good idea. The tax cuts, on the other hand, they’re actually going to impact more on higher income households. And we know the higher income households are actually hanging on to their cash.

The Greens have accused the government services minister, Stuart Robert, of failing to comply with a Senate resolution to hand over documents about the legal advice the government received on robodebt.

The Greens say the legal advice is critical to understanding how the program was set up and how it operated.

The minister has claimed public interest immunity over both the legal advice and an executive minute.

Greens senator Rachel Siewert said that was “not acceptable”.

It is quite obviously in the public interest for the commonwealth government to be transparent about the legal advice in relation to the income compliance program.

The requested information is vital evidence for the inquiry into the Centrelink compliance program as it goes to the legal foundation of the program and how it has operated.

I do not accept this obfuscation and attempt to hide behind public interest immunity when it’s clear that the public have a right to know.

This year’s budget is remarkable in many ways, not least of which is the way it is being released to the public.

Typically, the budget is delivered in large committee rooms filled with journalists from the press gallery, who are locked up together with the budget papers and Treasury officials hours ahead of the public release.

This year, though, Covid-19 has made that too risky.

Instead, journalists are working from their offices, cut off from internet and phones, and overseen by Treasury officials. The media have been forced to sign lengthy legal statements agreeing not to disclose any of the budget’s secrets until 7.30pm, when the embargo lifts.

The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, has announced that learner permit and licence testing will resume in Victoria. The state is opening 12 pop-up licence testing sites and will employ a total of 380 new licence testers. Online testing is also resuming.

Full details below.

The Australian Academy of Science wants to see additional support for researchers made available in tonight’s budget.

The academy’s pre-budget submission warned that investment in R&D as a proportion of GDP has dropped from 0.67% in 2011-12 to 0.48% forecast in 2019-20.

It is recommending government develop a “a long term, stable, forward looking plan for science, economic prosperity and future jobs”, set a national target for expenditure, provide tax incentives for business to invest in R&D, and implement an international science strategy recognising science as a “strategic soft power”.

The academy, a collection of hundreds of Australia’s leading academics, says it will be watching the budget closely.

For many Australians, budget night is one of the few occasions in the year when they will closely engage with federal politics.

So what are we all expecting? New polling from Essential Research maps out the engagement levels and expectations of the public.

The results make fairly grim, if not entirely unexpected, reading.

More than half think big business and the well-off will benefit from the budget. The losers are expected to be those on a lower income, young Australians, and ageing Australians.

One-quarter of respondents believe the budget will benefit them personally. That’s well below the 31% of people who believe it will be either bad or very bad for them.

At least people will be watching. About 34% of respondents said they would be paying close attention and 42% said they will be paying a little attention.

You can see the full results of the research here.

Victorian Trades Hall secretary Luke Hilakari says tonight’s budget will be the most important since the second world war.

Asked about the government’s plans to subsidise the wages of new apprentices, he tells the ABC the scheme needs to go further.

Hilakari says the scheme is an “interesting idea” but questions whether it is enough to encourage employers to take apprentices on.

We need to think what an apprenticeship is, it’s not just a one-year hit. My worry is if we fund employers to fund apprenticeships for half their wage, what happens for the second and third and fourth year, in which many apprentices graduate? We need to make sure funding goes with the worker all the way to completion and probably needs to be targeted around completion because completion rates are as low as 40%.

Hilakari says the subsidy scheme should not replace jobkeeper, which is scheduled to end in March.

The union leader also calls for more targeted support, including for aviation workers, migrant workers, and the university sector.

He also calls for universally free early childhood education.

You look at the pandemic, in the caring responsibilities that burden is clearly still on women and not by a small margin. To lift that burden it would be great for women’s participation in the workforce and great for the education of kids. Every dollar we spend in the space we get $2 back and we get it back because the children are more prepared for primary school, and more socially adjusted, we get long-term social dividends.

That would be the number one thing I would like to see come through this budget.

South Australia has made some changes to its border arrangements, AAP reports.

The state will extend its buffer zone with Victoria and ease restrictions in border communities.

AAP’s report is here:

South Australia is to extend its buffer zone with Victoria, easing Covid-19 restrictions on border communities.

The zone will increase from 40km to 70km on each side of the border, allowing more people to travel into SA or return from trips into Victoria without the need to quarantine.

People travelling from states other than Victoria who transition through Mildura will also be allowed to come into the state without being forced into isolation.

Travellers will be checked at the border to ensure they are not from Victoria or Mildura locals and must not have stopped in the regional town.

The two changes were approved at Tuesday’s meeting of the state’s transition committee and will come into force from midnight on Wednesday.

“This is going to provide huge relief to people who come into South Australia on a very regular basis,” Premier Steven Marshall said.

Police Commissioner Grant Stevens said the change would give regional communities the chance to once again access services in SA that they had used in the past.

“But it also means that South Australians who have ties or obligations within Victoria have the ability to go in and undertake their business,” he said.

“It was a balanced decision that provided opportunity for those people who needed it most yet still protected South Australians from the increased risk from Covid-19.”

Jo Masters, the chief economist of consulting giant EY Oceania, says the budget needs to deliver stimulus at an unprecedented speed and scale. Masters is speaking to the ABC.

We’ve got an unprecedented crisis. So we need an unprecedented response. That’s not just size. We’ve talked a lot about the eye-watering numbers that we’re expecting. But unprecedented in terms of scope and also in terms of timeliness.

We do need to make sure enough stimulus is getting into the economy fast enough and that’s particularly true of infrastructure, which we know is very impactful in terms of driving down the unemployment rate but can take time to feed into the economy.

Shadow employment minister Brendan O’Connor says the government’s proposed wage subsidy program – to be unveiled in tonight’s budget – will only be successful if it is significant enough to replace the trimmed down jobkeeper program, which is slated for abolishment in March.

O’Connor is speaking on Sky News now.

It does depend on the detail and the amount of investment that goes into this wage subsidy. What we do know currently is that jobkeeper is going to be abolished in March and we do know that it has already been cut ... so the wage subsidy plan has to be a big one to make sure that jobs are created or maintained.

Away from Canberra momentarily, Qantas and Jetstar have defeated a union’s challenge to orders that aircraft engineers stop work without pay during the Covid-19 crisis.

AAP’s story is here:

Qantas and Jetstar have won a federal court case launched by a union after ordering aircraft engineers to stop work without pay amid the Covid-19 crisis.

From late March and early April, the airlines stood down hundreds of maintenance staff along with about 20,000 other employees including pilots and cabin crew.

After the Covid-19 fallout both companies progressively experienced a reduction in passengers, with Qantas eventually suspending all international flights citing government restrictions on travel.

An application to the Fair Work Commission was made by the Australian Licensed Aircraft Engineers Association in March.

The union argued it was a business decision in response to “actual and projected downturn in trade”, an event within the airlines’ control.

“It is a stoppage arising from a voluntary change in business operations, not a matter entirely out of the airlines’ hands,” the court was told.

But the Qantas Group, which includes Jetstar, said it had already explored and implemented every other cost-saving measure, such as ceasing payments for rent, and these were not sufficient.

On Tuesday, justice Geoffrey Flick ruled the “stoppage of work for both Qantas and Jetstar ... was one for which Qantas could not reasonably be held responsible and one which Jetstar could not reasonably prevent”.

While we count down to the budget, Mike Bowers has a test for you all.

Labor MP Andrew Leigh, a former professor of economics, says tonight’s budget must look after the most vulnerable Australians, who have been hit hardest in the pandemic. He spoke to CNBC a little earlier this afternoon.

Teleworking is easy for lawyers, not so easy for people who clean the offices of lawyers. And that’s the most vulnerable Australians who have been hurt. So we need to make sure their interests are looked after. We also need to make sure as well as prioritising jobs, that we’re prioritising education. Now this has been a human capital catastrophe in terms of both the health and the education impacts, and so investing in health measures would be vital.

Hi everyone – happy budget day!

Christopher Knaus here. I’ll be steering our live coverage in the four hours leading up to the budget’s release.

Just turning our attention to Senate question time, briefly, where the aged care minister, Richard Colbeck, was again under pressure over the federal government’s response to Covid-19 in aged care.

Colbeck was speaking about the findings of the royal commission, and made the following remark:

The royal commission made no comment about what we said or did.

The royal commission, of course, was highly critical of the government.

Senator Katy Gallagher asked him how he could possibly make that statement, given the royal commission had recommended the government publish a national aged care plan for Covid-19.

Colbeck said he had been taken out of context and his comment was simply about the “withholding of PPE”.

He accused Labor of “dishonesty”.

I was directly answering and being directly relevant to a question that I was asked with respect to the provision of PPE.

With that, I will hand over to Chris Knaus, who will take you through the afternoon until our political team is freed from the federal budget lock-up and Amy Remeikis takes over again. That will happen when Josh Frydenberg begins his budget speech at 7.30pm.

Thank you for following. Stay well, and give your pets a pat for me.

And that’s it. Speaker Tony Smith makes a statement to the house about behaving themselves during the budget speech and the budget reply speech. He also tells MPs joining the parliament remotely to have their microphones muted unless they have the call.

Any breach of this request or any interjections will be considered to be highly disorderly and I’ll deal with them at another time.

He also notes that there is no time limit for either the budget speech or the budget reply.

Catherine King has a question for infrastructure minister Michael McCormack. He is delighted. It is about the federal government paying $30m for land worth $3m for a Western Sydney airport. He is less delighted.

A bit of nonsense up the top, but the substantive answer is that his department has agreed to work with the recommendations made in the report by the Australian National Audit Office (Anao) and is “taking comprehensive action to address the relevant matters relating to the purchase”.

The secretary of the department is also, in addition to other measures, putting in place protocols to ensure any future property acquisitions or disposals are agreed by the departments’ operations committee, prior to the exercise of delegations.

Putting in place a protocol for the treatment of future Anao recommendations to internally review issues requiring independence of the reviewers such as from outside the affected work area, agreement to the review approach by the departments’ operations committee and consideration of the outcomes by the secretary. As this work is ongoing it would be inappropriate for me to make any further comment at this time.

A question from the government benches inviting energy minister Angus Taylor to discuss the gas led recovery.

Taylor says:

We are committed to making sure our liquefied natural gas export remains a world leader.

He continues:

We learned over the weekend that Labor’s position on gas is not to have a position on gas. They are not allowed to talk about important projects. It is not that I would agree with the president of the CFMEU, but I think he summed it up perfectly when he said that the member for Hindmarsh’s recent comments about coal and gas not having a future are an insult to workers. An insult to workers. Labour’s failure to stand up on gas is just another example of the leader of the opposition being paralysed by indecision and division, including his failure to have a 2030 target as required by the Paris agreement. We are getting on with delivering our plan for affordable reliable energy as we bring down our emissions.

In the interests of expediency, those answers which are basically reading out a press release shall be skipped over.

Catherine King, the member for Ballarat, asked:

My question is to the prime minister. This government has spent $1.7bn less on road and rail projects than it announced in last year’s budget, meaning at six budgets in a row that this government has spent less than it announced on infrastructure. How can Australians trust this prime minister to deliver anything he announces in tonight’s budget when he has never [matched] his infrastructure announcements?

Morrison said:

In response to the pandemic the government has announced $11.3bn for infrastructure ventures focused on shovel ready projects that will immediately bring forward work on small priority projects.

He then said:

Since coming to government, 399 projects have been completed, this includes 50 which were completed just in the last financial year and there are 153 projects under construction across Australia, including 60 which commenced construction in 2019; there are a further 481 projects in planning.

He then passed Michael McCormack who got ... quite excited. I’m genuinely upset that Amy Remeikis is in the budget lockup and did not see it.

He started by talking about how infrastructure had kept moving during the pandemic (interesting given what happened to the airline industry) and said “and Australians have moved about by foot and bicycle in record numbers”.

He then read from an address King made at an infrastructure conference which said that infrastructure has “kept us going throughout this crisis [and] it will play a critical role in seeing us out of it”.

McCormack then asked King to ask him a question directly, rather than addressing it to the PM.

I would love to answer more from you, because it is just like a Dorothy Dixer, it’s fantastic, I love questions about infrastructure.

Another question from Anthony Albanese.

My question is to the prime minister. Before coming to office, this government announced that it would produce a surplus in its first budget and every year after that. Last year, the prime minister announced, bizarrely, that he had, quote, brought the budget back into surplus next year. Isn’t that the case that this government has never delivered a surplus, never will deliver a surplus and had doubled the debt well before coronavirus hit?

Morrison replies that “this government brought the budget back into balance before the Covid recession hit”.

Not in a budget, it didn’t.

In fact, it is a carnival over there, Mr Speaker. It is embarrassing for the leader of the opposition, Mr Speaker, to not acknowledge that the Covid-19 global pandemic has prevented the government from achieving a surplus in the last financial year. Mr Speaker, he must be the only person on this planet who doesn’t understand that the impact of the Covid-19 global pandemic on this country, on the jobs and livelihoods of this country ...

A point of order from Albanese, who says the prime minister’s response was not relevant because he said “he had brought the budget back to surplus next year”. Speaker Tony Smith says it wasn’t all relevant, but not because of that. Says Smith:

There was a lot in there. We will not waste the time of the house by me reading back your own question to you.

Morrison is back on his feet again. He says Labor left the budget in “absolute tatters by the economic irresponsibility”; that they do not acknowledge the role of the pandemic, and that his government has “cushioned that blow” on the economy.

We couldn’t eliminate the blow, Mr Speaker. No country has been able to do that, but this country has done it better than almost any other developed country in the world today, with the speed of our response but also the design of our response and the capability to respond, Mr Speaker, because of the work that had been done by this government, year in and year out, to repair the budget and get it back to balance. Mr Speaker, those opposite have shown no disposition to what is necessary to try and restore a budget back to balance.

He is getting quite worked up.

Speaker Tony Smith also issues a warning to shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers, who he says has interjected four or five times.

Can I say to him the week is young? Just cease interjecting. You are interjecting constantly and loudly.

The member for Mayo, Rebekha Sharkie, asks deputy prime minister Michael McCormack to explain how her party, the Centre Alliance, negotiated 75% of the $20m in funding recently announced for the Harndorf Road traffic issues in her electorate.

Some jeering from the opposition benches – Sharkie also negotaiated with the government to support the controversial university reform bill.

Says McCormack:

I thank the member for Mayo for her advocacy, Mr Speaker, for her constituents. Her advocacy for easing traffic congestion and making sure that people get home sooner and safer, making sure they get where they need to be sooner and safer. That is what the Liberals and Nationals have done all the way through with a $100bn rolling infrastructure plan. Yesterday, $7.5bn in new money was added to what we are doing, Mr Speaker. $625m for South Australia.

We went through the new infrastructure funding announcements to determine what is new and what is repeat funding. The details on that are here.

A question from deputy opposition leader Richard Marles, which is an excuse for Albanese to pull out his limited edition (and incorrect) Back In Black budget 2019 mug. He asks whose mug will be on the budget mug this year.

Speaker Tony Smith yells at Albo for using a prop.

Morrison says “I won’t indulge the juvenile antics of the opposition” to the sound of jeers. He then says: “Today is a serious day for Australia”.

The substance of his answer, however, is pretty much the same as it was for the last two questions on the budget. Not much in the script.

Wentworth MP Dave Sharma asks the health minister, Greg Hunt, to outline the government’s plan to manage the health impacts of Covid-19. This is an opportunity to talk about that article in the Medical Journal of Australia.

Hunt begins by setting out the international picture and says the reason that Australia has had lesser impacts is because it had a “clear, consistent plan”.

His response does not mention aged care.

Chaos, already. Question three is from oposition leader Anthony Albanese, who asks:

Won’t the Morrison recession be longer and deeper because the prime minister’s cuts to jobkeeper, jobseeker and wages are leaving businesses and workers behind?

Morrison says:

Mr Speaker, the leader of the opposition, in the way he has framed this question, seems to be the only Australian in this country who does not understand there is a Covid-19 pandemic going on in the world today.

He says Australia is one of the few countries to be able to steer its way through the pandemic.

The leader of the opposition may not know this, but the forecast fall in the global economy is 4.5 %. During the global financial crisis, the global economy fell by 0.1%, so what our government is facing is 45 times more severe than when those opposite thought the response was to build overpriced school halls, set fire to people’s houses. And that is not how you manage a crisis, that’s not how you manage a crisis. You manage a crisis with the strength and responsible economic management and the responsiveness and the certainty that our government has provided over these many past months, as we have done, and they can jeer all they like but their record of failure speaks for itself in a crisis.

Next question is a dixer from Fiona Martin, the member for Reid, inviting the prime minister to expound on the budget, which he is doing. At length.

Not really a lot of detail or substance so I shan’t transcribe it here, but I will note that there was booing from the opposition benches when Morrison said his government was working “to ensure that we are enabling Australians to get the skills and training and education they need”.

That university legislation is still going through the house.

Australia’s foreign minister, Marise Payne, and US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, were both wearing masks when they met in Tokyo today, according to this photo tweeted a short time ago:

There’s been a lot of attention on the spread of coronavirus within the Trump administration after Donald Trump’s positive diagnosis late last week. The US secretary of state said last week he was feeling well, and he pressed ahead with his planned trip to Japan, but the state department announced at the weekend that Pompeo would not proceed with visits to Mongolia and South Korea.

Payne arrived in Japan yesterday and is holding talks with Pompeo, along with Japan’s foreign minister, Toshimitsu Motegi, and India’s external affairs minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, in a grouping known as the Quad, which has attracted criticism from China. The three visiting ministers are also due to meet with Japan’s new prime minister, Yoshihide Suga.

Payne and her small group of accompanying officials are set to isolate for two weeks upon their return to Australia later this week.

The opposition leader, Anthony Albanese, is also paying tribute to Ryan after earlier paying respect to Fahey. He thanked the prime minister for his words, and for agreeing to a state funeral.

Albanese said:

Susan’s triumph is that her reforms have become part of who we are as a nation and what she fought against looks to younger generations like the stuff of dystopian fiction. But it was real and Susan toppled it.

Scott Morrison is now speaking in condolence of trailblazing Labor minister Susan Ryan.

He said:

It has been said she was a trailblazer. True, but it is an easy word to use and not understand what that truly means. For Susan Ryan it meant being judged daily on her gender, her age, her marital status, her physical size, her clothes and how she was raising her own children at that time. In her words, the criticism was relentless, in the media, community and across this chamber and with her own party. And that is what she came to fight.

The slogan a woman’s place is in the Senate was more than a slogan about one person. It was about a broader change to advantage every Australian woman, whatever their views, whatever their background, whatever their politics.

I’ve said this elsewhere but Morrison is at his best when giving condolence motions – he gets the tone right.

Earlier, Labor MP Linda Burney commented on a photograph shared by LNP senator Matt Canavan, which showed a ute bearing the slogan “black coal matters”.

Here’s Canavan’s tweet.

On that note, a reminder of those who most need financial support and are unlikely to get it in this budget.

Goldie went on to say that the proposed direct wage subsidy for people aged under 35 is something that, “in principle, we really are pleased to see”.

But she said it could be extended.

This is a policy that we have been advocating to the government as a really upon way to help, not just young people, actually.

Cassandra Goldie, the chief executive of the Australian Council of Social Service, says the proposed tax cuts will not help Australians on lower incomes – it helps those on higher and middle incomes who already have jobs.

She told ABC24 that Acoss opposed both stage two (expected to be brought forward tonight) and stage three of the Coalition’s proposed tax cuts.

I mean stage two is being talked about as if it is targeted to middle-income earners. I think that shows how out of touch, frankly, people are with the reality of where incomes are actually at. If you look at the overall adult population and who is filing a tax return, in fact intermediate income is $50,000 a year, when stage two – overwhelmingly most of the dollars will be benefiting people who are on six-figure salaries ...

Now, as you know there is some unusualness to this particular year because of the decision by the government to bring forward stage two, but in terms of what is getting locked in permanently and ongoing, this is not a package that helps people on low- and middle-incomes. It overwhelmingly benefits people on higher incomes, people who have jobs.

Today we are saying: why are we doing this when most of the economists are very clear, dollar for dollar [we need to] give money to people who need it and who are going to guarantee to spend it. That’s why we continue to say we need to fix jobseeker, and the social security transfer payment system would have been a much better way to have that high confidence, precious dollars into the hands of people who need it and, yes, it will really help the real economy, in terms of consumer demands.

Victorian premier Daniel Andrews in a mask: a triptych.

A survey by political lobbyists Newgate has found that 67% of respondents want state borders reopened by Christmas.

Victorian and NSW respondents were most supportive of reopening state borders, while most respondents from Western Australia – no surprise – would prefer their borders remain shut.

More than two-thirds of Australians want state borders reopened by Christmas, as confidence in the public health response to coronavirus continues to increase.

More from AAP:

Newgate’s survey continues to show a steady rise in community confidence about easing coronavirus restrictions.

There has been a significant increase in the proportion of people who agree governments are taking appropriate measures to protect people’s health.

But Victorians remain least likely to agree restrictions are fair and reasonable, with discontent becoming more obvious in the past week.

Economic recovery has firmed as the number one concern of Australians, with worries about the coronavirus tracking downward to its lowest level since May, before the second wave.

A growing majority of people believe the spread of the virus will get better in coming months.

Predictions for the economy continue to improve, while concerns about job security fall.

AAP adds:

Control of community transmission is the key condition for NSW residents being able to enter Queensland from 1 November.

People in regional Victoria could be allowed to travel to the Northern Territory from 2 November if their case numbers remain low.

But while Australia continues to recorded very few new cases, low test numbers are a concern.

Still at the Coalition joint party room meeting, Scott Morrison has welcomed the improved situation on the ground in Victoria.

“The light is getting a little brighter,” the prime minister said. He paid tribute to the resilience of Australians, particularly in Victoria.

Morrison pointed to a paper published by the Medical Journal of Australia this week showing Australia could have had more than 16,300 additional deaths during the first wave if the outbreak had been similar to that in England and Wales.

Let’s check back in on the US, which miraculously continues to exist.

The Guardian’s world affairs editor, Julian Borger, has written that US president Donald Trump’s decision to leave hospital prematurely and “theatrically pull off his mask on the White House balcony” shows Trump’s desperation and “gives some measure of how dangerous the next four weeks will be”.

He writes:

Many students of Trump’s life and career have warned that he would be prepared to sacrifice anyone – even those closest to him – to spare himself the humiliation of a one-term presidency, but even they surely could not have anticipated how literal that sacrifice would be.

More here:

The federal education minister, Dan Tehan, has thanked the Centre Alliance for supporting the university legislation.

In a statement, he said:

The job-ready graduates legislation will provide more university places for Australian students, make it cheaper to study in areas of expected job growth and provide more funding and support to regional students and universities. I want to thank the Senate crossbench for their good faith negotiations. I look forward to continuing to work with the crossbench to secure passage of the legislation.

Finally, reporters asked a number of questions about whether people who appeared to breach health directions would be fined.

The Butcher Club outbreak has been traced back to an employee who went to work when sick.

The Kilmore outbreak is linked to a person who had permission to travel to regional areas from Melbourne, but then dined in at a cafe – despite the rules being that people who travel from stage four restriction areas carry stage four restrictions with them. That means that if you can’t dine-in in Melbourne, you can’t travel from Melbourne and dine-in elsewhere, even if you have permission to be there.

Andrews reiterated that he did not want a fear of being fined to stand in the way of people being honest with contact tracers about their movements and when symptoms developed.

No fine could be worth as much as accurate information from anyone who has got this. That’s where the real gold is. That’s the fortune. That’s worth so much. That gets us open.

Andrews was asked if he had any update to make about the possible lifting of the 5km rule – there is a push to have it lifted by the AFL grand final weekend, which is 24 October.

I don’t want to put a downer on all of these things but I’ll say - look at the numbers today. This is by no means over. We’re very, very close. We’re very close. But I can’t, in any sense of certainty, I can’t tell people where we’re going to be on the 17th, 18th, 19th of October, let alone the 23rd.

That’s why we’ve all got to make the right choices. I don’t want to be focusing too much on any one person. But you know, we have a person who had symptoms and went to work. We don’t want that to happen.

He reiterated that there are government support payments available for people who do not have sick leave, to allow them to stay at home and get tested.

It’s not through a sense of blame, it’s just through a sense of– these are the challenges that we face.

Andrews said the public health decisions would be made not just on the daily case numbers but on where they are coming from – if they are connected outbreaks, for example.

It is a numbers game. But it’s also a qualitative thing. You’ve got to look at what sits behind those numbers and that’s why there’s such a big team of people doing that contact tracing, so we’ve got the most complete picture. I think that we have some graphics we’ll share with you later today about how it spread from the outer south-east of Melbourne all the way up to the north-east of Victoria, which gives you a sense of what we’re up against.

He then clarified that there are not actually any active cases reported in northeast Victoria, it is just that the person with the virus who travelled to Kilmore also travelled to Benella. Again, on a permit. Close contacts in Benella are now being tested.

Andrews said he was not considering instituting a local lockdown in Kilmore, and also suggested that it might not work because permitted workers like police and paramedics would still move around the region.

They might live there but work somewhere else. All of that permitted movement, because that the set of rules that we have, that would still happen. Unless you really were going to do a lockdown, which was no one leaves their home for any reason, or very, very limited reasons, and even then, the movement could only be within Kilmore, for instance. So that’s not on the cards.

I am slightly confused about how the above could not be applied to any lockdown.

Daniel Andrews said that Victoria’s contact tracing team was calling 80% of positive cases within four hours – the national benchmark is 24 hours.

So I wouldn’t want anyone to think that the outbreak management response at Chadstone, Kilmore and Colac, in the Latrobe Valley, in Hallam, have been anything other than first rate, because they have been. They’ve been absolutely first rate and I want to thank every single person involved in that.

He added:

Twenty-eight seems a lot and it is. But 28 can easily be 280 and it isn’t. So the group to thank today, I think above all else, are all of those people in Kilmore who are going and getting tested. Thank you very much for doing that. And anybody in Kilmore who believes they’ve been anywhere near that site, or even if they don’t believe that they have, better safe than sorry. It’s asymptomatic testing for a reason and you can go and get tested and the results will be literally like gold for us.

Sutton said anyone in Kilmore who wants to get a Covid test can get one, and anyone who has any form of symptoms, even quite mild, should get them. There is also asymptomatic testing available for all staff at Chadstone, and symptomatic testing in the carpark.

Sutton has been asked a series of questions about the contact tracing methods used, and whether we should do what NSW did in outbreaks like the Crossroads Hotel, where anyone who was tangentially near the pub on specific days was told to preemptively self-isolate.

Sutton says people should keep apart from others and get a test if needed, but says it is not the a mirror case.

But it is not a Crossroads Hotel, prospectively following close contacts in the same way. If we had a Crossroads Hotel, I’m sure that weed we’d manage it in much the same way as New South Wales.

Seven of the 15 cases reported yesterday are listed as still being under investigation, but Sutton said that’s not a concern.

They come in right up until midnight and beyond. So the information that we can give in the morning are the ones that is can be investigated and linked without necessarily the phone call from 5am when the team is on to it.

In terms of linking one to an existing outbreak, that’s done through your database. But then it is through today that the interviews will happen and they get resolved within the working day.

To clarify: Andrews mentioned the virus was travelling to north-east Victoria, but Sutton said there was only one new case in regional Victoria and that was the person in Kilmore.

There are close contacts at Kilmore because a cafe was identified as a possible transmission site. Asked if there should be a requirement for businesses in regional areas to check licences to make sure people aren’t from Melbourne, Sutton said:

I think that that is a worthy consideration. We don’t want huge administrative burdens for hospitality. But it is ... you know, it is an area to explore. But the obligation is absolutely on those who are coming from metropolitan Melbourne not to attend.

The person who went to the cafe in Kilmore was a close contact of someone in the Butcher Club/Chadstone cluster, Sutton says, but did not know they were a close contact when they left the city. They had a permit to travel to Kilmore.

Sutton said:

Anyone who is identified as a close contact and is aware of it, needs to quarantine. But I don’t think that that was the case for this individual.

He added, under further questioning:

So that individual, as far as I know, was not aware that they were a close contact at the point of time that they were travelling. So it wasn’t that they were breaking quarantine, it was that they weren’t aware that they were a close contact of a positive case.

There are now two cases linked to Kilmore: a worker at a cafe, and another person. Both are close contacts of the person who travelled to Kilmore, who was a close contact of the Chadstone case.

Sutton said 96% of people tested in connection with both clusters got their test result within 24 hours, and 95% were contacted in that 24 hours.

I think with the small numbers, it’s absolutely everyone, except in those circumstances where they’re literally not picking up the phone.

They are sending out police and ADF to do doorknocks on the same day.

On the scale of the number of contacts – Sutton says there are 150 close contacts in the Kilmore cluster alone. That is not a big cluster.

Sutton said there was no evidence that the strains of the virus in the Chadstone and Kilmore clusters was stronger than any other.

But the individual will have variable transmissibility. There are some individuals with a high viral load.

He said the contact tracing has been a “complex and large process” and that people have been “absolutely cooperative”.

And people, as you can see from the responses we’ve got of those who weren’t initially linked in the Chadstone outbreak, have been very forthcoming in coming forward for testing, identifying themselves as being symptomatic or identifying themselves as having been casual contacts. But it’s still, you know, 14 suburbs across half of Victoria and dozens of cases. So a tricky exercise.

The roads minister, Ben Carroll, is speaking now. He says the Victorian government is refunding about 80,000 appointments for driver’s licence tests which had to be postponed due to Covid-19 restrictions.

They are also waiving the $19 application fee until the backlog of bookings is dealt with – that could take until April, he says. The cost of that will be about $27m, including $7m to design a secure online learner’s permit system to allow people to take their test (which includes no practical component) in their home.

Carroll said:

You will still need to go to the registration and licensing office for your photo identification and also for your eye test. We’re also doubling the number of testing sites. We’ve already put six testing sites online and we’re going to put another six online as well ... We’re also adding 180 additional testing staff throughout our registration and licensing offices. This will bring our total investment to about $60m to support registration and licensing through the pandemic and get Victorians back on the road safely and securely.

Andrews said there would be a drive-through testing clinic in Kilmore, north of Melbourne, today to contain that Chadstone cluster. He urged anyone with even very mild symptoms to get tested.

He added:

One only has to spend a moment to imagine, if Chadstone were open at the moment just how many more cases we might well be dealing with here. If there were not restrictions in terms of movement into regional Victoria, as there are, then, who knows.

If there were not rules that apply to what happens in those regional Victorian community as well, for locals or for those who are permitted, well, I don’t think that we would be talking about 28 or 30 cases, we would be talking about many, many more. The fact that you can go from Frankston to Benalla all the way up in the north-east, that just speaks as to how wildly infectious this virus is.

There are 27 active cases among healthcare workers and 66 active cases in aged care.

The rolling average to 5 October, as reported earlier this morning, is 10.6 in metropolitan Melbourne and 0.3 in regional areas. There are three active cases in regional areas.

Andrews said that the Chadstone outbreak has run “to Mitchell shire and indeed, up into the north-east as well. There is one additional case in third step regional Victorian local government areas.”

Meanwhile, Queensland opposition leader Deb Frecklington is at the Gilmour Space Technologies plant in Brisbane, and has announced a $25m rocket manufacturing facility. Starting the campaign with a bang, indeed.

Frecklington says:

We know after four consecutive years of the highest unemployment in the nation that Queensland is lagging behind. We’ve got 200,000 Queenslanders out of work. And that is why the LNP has the economic plan to get Queensland working again. Now, that plan starts with manufacturing and I really want to thank Gilmore Space for having us here in this incredible Queensland-owned, Queensland-made manufacturing plant.

This is all about investing in the space race and we know that the space race is a race for jobs and I want Queensland to win that race. So that is why the LNP is going to partner with Gilmour Space, an investment into Gilmour Space so we can partner with Gilmour and build a rocket-launching facility not only in north Queensland, but make a rocket manufacturing plant right here in Queensland.

It is important because this will mean for Gilmour Space 150 highly skilled, highly motivated jobs right here for Queensland.

Plibersek continues:

Now, you would really think at a time of recession when we’ve got so many people joining the unemployment queues, that we would make it easier, simpler, more affordable to get an education. This government is doing the exact opposite.

We should be making it easier to go to Tafe or university. This government is doing the exact opposite. Labor believes – and we have always worked – to make sure that if you’re prepared to work hard, if you’re prepared to study hard, you can get a place at university.

That’s changed the lives of people like me, the first in in our family, the first generation in our family to get the chance to go to university, and I know many of my colleagues are in the same position, because Labor governments democratised access to university. We made it easier. We opened up university to working-class kids.

This government is slamming the door in their faces at a time when the alternative is being unemployed.

Back to the most important story of the day: police in Sydney have managed to contain the two deer that were on the loose in Leichhardt.

ABC24 has reported that police have contained both deer by corralling them into a courtyard. They are now, presumably, standing there flapping their outstretched arms and saying “Woah!” occasionally until animal controllers arrive, in the great tradition of anyone who has ever tried to contain a semi-domesticated animal.

NSW police said:

It is unknown how the deer came to be found in an urban area.

More on this vital story by Naaman Zhou, here:

Victoria’s chief health officer, Prof Brett Sutton, has released an update on the number of “mystery cases” – cases with untraced community transmission – in Victoria.

This table indicates that nine of the cases reported overnight are still under investigation.

Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk was speaking in a short time ago, on the first day of the state local campaign.

She said it was important to avoid a second or third wave of Covid-19, which would cause further shutdowns and hinder economic recovery.

I don’t want to see a Queensland that goes into a lockdown. I want to see a Queensland that continues to grow and prosper.

She continued:

Queenslanders have done a great job with the health response – it allows us to open up our economy and focus 100% now on the economic recovery.

And there are tough challenges out there. You only have to look at other parts of the world where industries have been shut down. Mining have been shut down. Agriculture has been shut down. Businesses have been shut down. Countries are in second waves where they are completely closed and are not open. I don’t want to see that from Queensland. Queensland, our best days are ahead of us. I know that. I know they’re ahead of us and that’s why we all have to work together.

So I’m asking Queenslanders to continue to show their support for the work that we have done in containing that health crisis and now that we are tackling the economic recovery. We know that there are challenges in terms of making sure that we get people back into work. It has been tough. People have lost their jobs, but I look around here today and I see an economy that is working.

On Sydney’s Bondi beach.

The office of the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, has yet to give a time for the daily press conference. I’ll let you know as soon as we know.

Back in the US, president Donald Trump is giving another lesson in what not to do.

If you have tested positive for coronavirus: (a) don’t spend time around other people outside of a medical setting, and (b) if you have to be out (because you are travelling to or from medical appointments, the only reason to be out) DO. NOT. REMOVE. YOUR. MASK.

Victoria police has announced its daily coronavirus fine statistics: 49 people were fined for breaching health directions in the past 24 hours, including nine people for failing to wear a face mask.

Among those fined were the proprietor and client of an alleged illegal nail salon in Sunshine, and a man walking through Footscray who told police he “never wears a mask”.

Greens leader Adam Bandt says the economic boost from the promised tax cuts would be better delivered if that money was spent raising income support payments so that people on jobseeker are no longer living in poverty.

A number of economists have agreed with this proposition: increasing jobseeker payments will mean more money circulating in the economy because people are able to afford essentials. Tax cuts to middle- and higher-income earners often go straight into savings.

As always, you can follow our global coronavirus updates here.

Part three:

Rebekha said the reforms had an emphasis on supporting higher education opportunities for Indigenous students and students from rural and low socioeconomic backgrounds through a $500m a year support program and one-off support payments of $5,000.

“I am also confident that with special circumstance provisions in place for students, embedded in legislation, universities will be encouraged to take on more of a mentoring and counselling role with students to prevent them missing out on Commonwealth support if they fail to complete at least half their units,” Rebekha said.

“Students experiencing health or personal crises will be protected.”

Professor David Lloyd, vice-chancellor University of South Australia, said: “I very much welcome the efforts of the Centre Alliance team to secure a better deal for South Australia in the passage of the job-ready graduates (JRG) legislation. We will be best placed now to grow participation and attainment in higher education in our state.”

Professor Colin Stirling, vice-chancellor of Flinders University said: “I welcome the commitment of Centre Alliance to ensuring that the job-ready graduates bill results in fair and equitable outcomes for South Australians, especially those from regional and rural areas. The guaranteed increase in funded places means that Flinders University will be able to continue to meet the growing demand for access to higher education as we develop the highly skilled graduates required for the future workforce.”

Professor Mike Brooks, interim vice-chancellor, University of Adelaide said: “I thank Rebekha Sharkie MP and senator Stirling Griff for their ongoing advocacy for the South Australian community. Greater Adelaide and regional South Australia currently have the lowest proportion of university-qualified adults on the mainland. Under the status quo, universities face the prospect of continuous decline over the coming years. The new legislation contains some serious deficiencies, however, the amendments that Ms Sharkie and senator Griff have secured are a step in the right direction. The way in which South Australia will be classified for the purposes of growth in domestic student enrolments will contribute to addressing the gap in educational attainment and help build the workforce for the future.”

Part two:

As part of negotiations with Centre Alliance, the government has committed to providing additional commonwealth supported places for South Australian universities that will see South Australia receive the same growth rate as Tasmania and regional Australia.

“This means substantial extra funding for our three universities over four years, over above current funding allocations, and an additional 12,000 students will have access to a university education over a four-year period,” said senator Stirling Griff, Centre Alliance senator for South Australia.

“This is an excellent outcome for South Australia and will address the concerns expressed by the vice-chancellors of Flinders University, UniSA and the University of Adelaide who all pointed out that the original government proposal favoured universities in regional areas and those in cities experiencing high growth.

“With a high unemployment rate, a smaller population than other states and no regional universities, using a CPI calculation for new places was just not going to work for South Australia.”

In addition, Centre Alliance worked with the government on the weighting of commonwealth supported places in order to recognise the number of regional, low socioeconomic status, first-in-family and Indigenous students currently enrolled with each South Australian university, as well as defining the criteria for ‘special circumstances’ within the legislation for students who do not successfully complete their study units.

Centre Alliance has also negotiated funding for four study hubs across regional South Australia to provide extra support to regional students.

“We also advocated for the reinstatement of a 10% discount for upfront FEE-Help student contributions, the confirmation of a professional pathway for psychology and social work and a formal independent review of these legislative reforms after 18 months,” Rebekha said.

Rebekha said the reforms would encourage universities to strengthen industry relationships and produce “job-ready graduates”.

“Another positive outcome of these reforms will hopefully be a strengthened focus on domestic students, particularly domestic students from the regions who have under-represented in our universities,” Rebekha said.

“Many Australian universities are on their knees suffering devastating financial losses due to the loss of international students thanks to Covid-19.

“With South Australian universities close to, or over, their cap of domestic students with some having been cross-subsidised by international students, we need to rethink the way in which we approach the domestic student market.”

The Centre Alliance has released a very lengthy statement on its decision to support the university reforms. (Background on that here.)

Given the interest in this story, I’ll put the statement here in full, in a few parts. Part one:

Centre Alliance will support an amended Jobs-Ready Graduates Package that delivers funding certainty to the university sector while giving disadvantaged students and students from regional areas greater access to university education, the party’s education spokesperson Rebekha Sharkie said today.

“These legislative reforms are by no means perfect but overall Centre Alliance recognises what the government is trying to achieve and what the university sector is calling for which is funding certainty following the 2017 indexation cuts,” the federal member for Mayo said.

“Without change, many universities were at risk of significant job losses and campus closures going into next year.

“I believe we also need to give the government the opportunity to incentivise students to study in fields where we have serious skills shortages. It is ridiculous that year after year we churn out thousands of law graduates, many of whom will never work in law, and yet we import engineering graduates. Something has to change.

“We also appreciate that there may be increased costs for students studying the humanities but we recognise that these reforms will provide a significant increase in university places from 2021 and that universities have the discretion to set fees that reflect the delivery of some courses. Students will be able to substantially reduce their fees if they study subjects or majors in areas that government has identified as areas of need, such as studies in English or languages.”

The shadow assistant minister for treasury, Andrew Leigh, was on 2SM radio in Sydney this morning and challenged the government’s line that tax cuts will help with jobs.

He also noted that the economic assistance set out in tonight’s federal budget will come from borrowed spending – so it has to worth the debt.

He said:

We’ve got debt going to a trillion dollars, we’re going to remember that all this spending is borrowed spending and so it needs to do maximum good in getting the economy going. It’s only stimulus when it’s spent, so giving tax cuts that end up being saved isn’t going to create jobs. The priorities have got to be to create jobs and to build back better through the recovery.

Tax cuts will particularly benefit higher-income earners – and those people are less likely to put that money back into the economy.

High-income earners tend to save about a quarter of their income. So about a quarter of that doesn’t flow back into the economy. And the other thing is high-income workers are very rarely on the margin between moving from welfare into work. So it’s difficult to imagine that if you offer a tax cut to somebody on $200,000, suddenly they’ll say ‘Oh, well, I’ll take that $200,000 job rather than staying unemployed.’ I would certainly benefit from a tax cut for people on $200,000, but that doesn’t mean that that’s good for the economy at a time when we’re borrowing every single dollar.

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese was speaking to reporters at Parliament House in Canberra a short time ago.

Meanwhile, treasurer Josh Frydenberg clearly hasn’t slept and has an apocryphal halo.

Let’s do a quick roundup of the budget stories, drops and otherwise, leading the major newspapers today.

The Australian reports that “average families” (not defined) will receive up to $5,000 in income tax relief , and that Australians aged under 35 who “have been forced on to welfare payments” will get a “lifeline” in the form of a direct wage subsidy. This is the jobmaker plan, because apparently we’re stuck with that naming convention.

It also reports that the budget papers will show that Australia is facing its first negative migration rate since 1946.

The Australian Financial Review has led on the wage subsidy, with Phil Coorey reporting that the subsidy would be contingent on a young person being hired “and the job on offer containing a minimum number of hours”.

The Herald Sun also led on the tax cuts, reporting that workers earning up to $200,000 will get up to $2,430 each in tax cuts, plus an extra bonus believed to be worth up to $1,000. It reports that once it passes parliament, the tax relief will be immediately built into pay packets and backdated to 1 July. The Daily Telegraph led on the same thing.

The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald also led on tax cuts for middle-income workers.

If you are feeling slightly overwhelmed by all the news coming out of the US at the moment, Guardian Australia’s associate news editor Jo Tovey is producing a daily election briefing to help non-Americans keep abreast of what’s going on.

The first briefing was published today. You can sign up here:

The federal opposition leader, Anthony Albanese, has been speaking on Radio National and repeated earlier indications that Labor will support stage-two tax cuts – that’s the 2022 tax cut – being brought forward.

He tells host Fran Kelly that Labor actually wanted those tax cuts brought forward last year when Australia already experienced two negative quarters.

He said:

The economy was really struggling before the pandemic hit. Of course we will wait to see what’s in the budget but the decisions that we make will be consistent with what we said last year.

Asked if they will give their support for tax cuts now, before they are officially set out, Albanese says he will wait to see the actual budget papers.

This government is good at making announcements, good at leaking announcements, but sometimes when you look at the announcements the detail didn’t match up.

He again says that Labor argued for more economic supports last year. Labor has repeatedly said it doesn’t support the proposed stage-three tax cuts, due to come online, according to the Morrison government’s plan, in 2024-2025. They say it will flatten the effective tax rate.

If you don’t support that plan, what should we do with that money, asks Kelly? Albanese says you should not count those chickens just yet.

This is something that is in ’24-25, this is something that is off in the distance.

He points out that last year we had no warning that the coronavirus pandemic was coming and says you cannot guess what the economy will look like then. Asked what Labor’s plan is, Albanese highlights its proposed Australian centre for disease control.

You can read more detail about that proposal here.

Good morning,

It’s federal budget day. This is, according to most commentators, the most significant budget in decades. Australia is in the grip of its first recession in 29 years, and the coronavirus and related shutdowns are set to deliver a deficit of $200bn.

What is the solution proposed to address this economic stagnation? You guessed it, tax cuts. According to Guardian Australia political reporter Paul Karp, the federal government has been telegraphing for a month that it will bring forward already promised tax cuts by 12 months to three years. Labor opposes the latter. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is also expected to announce some form of tax relief to businesses – detail pending.

Many will also be watching to see if the Morrision government decides to permanently increase the rate of income support payments.

Frydenberg has been saying all week that “this budget is all about jobs”. Which, fine, not particularly illuminating. The line being circulated is that it is a “record-spending budget”. Despite that, a poll conducted by Essential for Guardian Australia found that only 25% of respondents think the budget will be good for them personally. Luke Henriques-Gomes has written on the people expected to be left behind, here.

You can read Paul Karp’s list of what to look out for and what has already been announced here. He advises you to keep an eye on the deficit as a measure of the federal government’s commitment to economic supports, writing:

Future deficits will be a yardstick to judge how big the treasurer’s conversion is from fiscal conservative to Keynesian.

Your regularly scheduled Amy Remeikis will be in the budget lock-up and will come back to the blog this evening, when we know what’s going on.

In coronavirus news, people living in Melbourne will be tracking the progression of outbreaks including that linked to a Chadstone butcher, after the state’s chief health officer, Prof Brett Sutton, said it will be “line ball” whether the rolling 14-day average will drop to five cases a day in time for the next stage of restrictions to be introduced on 19 October.

Meanwhile, US president Donald Trump has announced he will leave hospital on Monday evening, Washington DC time. That’s in a few hours.

And finally, the Queensland parliament has been dissolved today ahead of the state election on 31 October.

Let’s crack on. You can follow me on Twitter @callapilla or email me at calla.wahlquist@theguardian.com